?With the election commission project 60 to 69% voter turnout in the first phase it is time to gaze the crystal ball. One would have expected a fairly homogenous state like Gujarat to yield common trends across the exit polls but it appears that there is a split opinion. While usual suspects CNN-IBN and NDTV are giving a Modi losing ground and close contest spin, the Star News AC Neilsen poll shows a comfortable position for the BJP.
Offstumped has come up with some analysis of its own, take it with a pinch of salt while we cross fingers for the next phase.
Summary of predictions
BJP assured – 34
Congress assured – 16
Tossups (seats with less than 3% margin) – 23
Unpredictable (seats with no incumbents in fray or a history of flip-flopping) – 14
If Congress keeps all its assured seats?wins all the tossups it can go as high as 40 seats and even if half of the unpredictable seats going its way you are looking at a high of only 47 seats. The BJP on the other hand if it keeps all its assured seats and even if it wins half the tossups and half the unpredictable seats will likely go as high as 52 seats. Those would be the most optimistic scenarios for the two parties.
Detailed Predictions seat by seat
1 ABDASA GEN – Historically high turnouts, traditional congress seat, congress has fielded rebel BJP incumbent but the BSP has fielded a muslim candidate, BJP might scrape through
2 MANDVI GEN – historically high turnouts, battleground seat in 2002 BJP’s Suresh Mehta?lost by < 1% margin, tossup
3 BHUJ GEN – historically high turnouts, battleground seat in 2002 BJP lost by 2% margin, tossup
4 MUNDRA SC – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins neutral to turnouts, highest voter turnout reported in 2007, BJP rebel defected to congress, will likely remain BJP
5 ANJAR GEN – moderate turnouts, BJP lost to congress with 3% margin, congress incumbent has switched to BJP, will likely be a tossup
6 RAPAR GEN – moderate to high turnouts, BJP lost with 4% margin in 2002, congress may retain seat
7 DASADA SC – very high turnouts historically, battleground seat in 2002, BJP lost by less than 1% margin, tossup
8 WADHWAN GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, neutral to turnouts, BJP incumbent contesting as independent, will likely remain BJP with reduced margin
9 LIMBDI GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP in the past, flipped to the congress in 2002 with decisive margin, will likely stay congress
10 CHOTILA GEN – Congress stronghold, BJP has never won this seat polling low 18% vote share, will likely go to congress
11 HALVAD GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP with 3 to 5% margins, will likely remain BJP
12 DHRANGADHRA GEN – very high turnouts, battleground seat which has gone BJP last 3 times with less than 2% margins, tossup likely BJP
13 MORVI GEN – moderately high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002 with less than 2% margin, tossup
14 TANKARA GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP
15 WANKANER GEN – high turnouts, muslim candidates from congress won in the past, went BJP in 2002 with a wide margin, unpredictable
16 JASDAN GEN – reliably congress, BJP has never won this seat, stay congress
17 RAJKOT-I GEN – moderate turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, no incumbents in fray, likely stay BJP
18 RAJKOT-II GEN – reliably BJP with wide margins, Vajubhai Vala’s seat, will stay BJP
19 RAJKOT RURAL SC – low to moderate turnouts, BJP margin reducing over the years, no incumbents in fray, a high turnout could mean a Congress upset
20 GONDAL GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP
21 JETPUR GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP neutral to turnouts, stay BJP
22 DHORAJI GEN – high turnouts, congress incumbent’s pocket borough, stay Congress
23 UPLETA GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP, was a battleground seat in? the past, went decisively to BJP in 2002, BSP has put up a muslim candidate, will likely stay BJP
24 JODIYA GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP but turned battleground seat last 2 elections with less than 2% margins, BSP has put up a muslim candidate, tossup likely BJP
25 JAMNAGAR GEN – low to moderate turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP
26 JAMNAGAR RURAL SC – very low turnouts, flipflopped between Congress and BJP, battleground seat in 2002, tossup likely congress
27 KALAWAD GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002, tossup likely BJP
28 JAMJODHPUR GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002, tossup likely BJP
29 BHANVAD GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002 however 2004 bye election was decisive with wide margin, likely stay BJP
30 KHAMBHALIA GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP, battleground seat in 2002 with 2% margin, tossup likely stay BJP
31 DWARKA GEN – high turnouts congress stronghold, BJP has never won here, incumbent congress man has defected to BJP, unpredictable
32 PORBANDAR GEN – reliably BJP in the past went to congress in 2002 with Gujarat congress leader Arjun Modhvadia contesting, stay Congress
33 KUTIYANA GEN – moderate turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP
34 MANGROL GEN – moderate to high turnouts, battleground seat with less than 1% margin, tossup likely congress
35 MANAVADAR GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP
36 KESHOD SC – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, no incumbents in fray, likely stay BJP
37 TALALA GEN – very high turnouts, flip flopped between BJP and congress, battleground seat with less than 1% margin, tossup
38 SOMNATH GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped with wide margins, unpredictable
39 UNA GEN – high turnouts, congress stronghold, BJP has never won this seat, stay congress
40 VISAVADAR GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, stay BJP
41 MALIYA GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, unpredictable
42 JUNAGADH GEN – low turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, congress has fielded a muslim candidate, likely stay BJP
43 BABRA GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP but margins have narrowed down to 2% resulting in a battleground seat in 2002,
44 LATHI GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP with wide margins, incumbent BJP rebel has defected to Congress, unpredictable
45 AMRELI GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP in the past, went congress in 2002 with a wide margin, likely stay Congress
46 DHARI GEN – hight turnouts battleground seat with low vote shares, NCP split the congress vote, incumbent BJP rebel switched to congress, tossup likely congress
47 KODINAR GEN – very hight turnouts, reliable BJP seat turned battleground with less than 2% margin, tossup likely stay BJP
48 RAJULA GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP with wide margins, stay BJP
49 BOTAD GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP with wide margins,
50 GADHADA SC – moderate turnouts, battleground seat that went to congress in 2002, stay congress
51 PALITANA GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat turned battleground, none of the incumbents are in fray, this seat is unpredictable
52 SIHOR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat likely stay BJP
53 KUNDLA GEN – very hight turnouts, reliable BJP seat, wide margins, likely stay BJP
54 MAHUVA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat wide margins, BSP has put up a muslim candidate here, likely stay BJP
55 TALAJA GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, overall vote shares have dropped in 2002, none of the incumbents are in fray will likely stay BJP
56 GHOGHO GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, congress runner up from last time is running as an independent, will likely stay BJP
57 BHAVNAGAR NORTH GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, this is an odd seat with strong communist presence, last times runner up was CPM, this time atleast 3 communists in fray, congress is not contesting this seat, will likely stay BJP
58 BHAVNAGAR SOUTH GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, incumbent BJP strongman has rebelled and contesting on Uma Bharathi’s BJS ticket, this is unpredictable
154 JAMBUSAR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, stay BJP
155 VAGRA GEN – very high turnouts, Congress muslim candidate has been winning this seat last 2 elections with less than 1% margins, clearly a communally polarised seat, with BSP fielding a Muslim candidate this could be a tossup
156 BROACH GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with high margins, bjp incumbent has rebelled, contesting on BJS ticket, this one is unpredictable
157 ANKLESHWAR GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with high margins, stay BJP
158 JHAGADIA ST – very high turnouts, BJP has never won this seat, JD-U holds this seat with vote shares and margins dropping, all the major parties fielding candidates from the same community this is an interesting battle and is unpredictable
159 DEDIAPADA ST – very high turnouts, has been going JD-U last?2 elections though vote shares and margins have dropped, with all parties fielding candidates from the same community this one is unpredictable
160 RAJPIPLA ST – very high turnouts, flip flopped between congress and BJP, was battleground seat in the past, went decisively to BJP in 2002, likely stay BJP
161 NIJHAR ST – moderate to high turnouts, congress has been winning this seat but vote shares and margins have been dropping, will likely remain Congress
162 MANGROL ST – moderate to high turnouts, has flip flopped between BJP and JD-U with wide margins, unpredictable
163 SONGADH ST – moderate to high turnouts, reliably voted Congress with wide margins, BJP has never won this seat, likely stay Congress
164 VYARA ST – very high turnouts, reliable Congress seat, BJP has never won this seat, wide margins, stay Congress
165 MAHUVA ST – very high turnouts, trending BJP last 2 elections with wide margins but vote shares have dropped, likely stay BJP
166 BARDOLI ST – very high turnouts, flip flopped BJP and congress, battleground seat with less than 1% margin, tossup
167 KAMREJ ST – very high turnouts, flip flopped BJP and congress, battleground seat with close fights, with none of the incumbents in fray, this one is?unpredictable
168 OLPAD GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat but vote shares have dropped and turned battleground with 2% margin in 2002, with none of the incumbents in fray this one is a tossup
169 SURAT CITY NORTH GEN – moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, incumbent BJP strong man has defected to Congress, this one is unpredictable
170 SURAT CITY EAST GEN – moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went congres with 2% margin last time, BSP has fielded a muslim candidate, likely tossup
171 SURAT CITY WEST GEN – low to moderate turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, likely stay BJP
172 CHORASI GEN – low turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, stay BJP
173 JALALPORE GEN – high turnouts, went BJP last 2 elections but margins have narrowed, likely stay BJP
174 NAVSARI ST – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat but margins have narrowed within 3% becoming a battleground in 2002, tossup
175 GANDEVI GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat with wide margins, none of the incumbents are in fray, BSP has fielded a local godman, likely remain BJP
176 CHIKHLI ST – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, went decisively to congress in 2002, likely stay Congress
177 DANGS BANSDA ST – moderate to high turnouts, reliable Congress seat, BJP has never won the seat, but vote shares have dropped, likely remain Congress
178 BULSAR GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, margins have narrowed in 2002, likely stay BJP
179 DHARAMPUR ST – high turnouts, reliably Congress last 2 elections with wide margins, likely stay Congress
180 MOTA PONDHA ST – moderate to very high turnouts, reliably congress last 2 elections with wide margins, likely stay Congress
181 PARDI ST – moderate to high turnouts, battleground seat Congress won with less than 2% margin in 2002, tossup
182 Umbergaon ST – high turnouts, battleground seat Congress won with less than 1% margin in 2002, tossup
Filed under: Gujarat Polls 2007, Uncategorized
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Astonishing.. work appreciated.
Matt Ko Mirchi Lagi….
Dear ask ur Journalist friend to go to Nandigram where Mass Grave of Bodies recovered..
You want to hang Modi bcoz he said Sohrabuddin a terrorist and desreve that…
But happy to be in BED with Buddhadeb who openly said “They were paid back in their own coin”
AND who were they…..innocent Muslim Childrens/Womens etc.
NDTV is talking of Adivasi in Gujjarat as there is NO bus BUT silent on Stripping Adivasi Women in public by Congress ruled Assam.
Hmm, Prashant, Matt ko mirchi lagi.. Kyun?
DWARKA: Pabubha manek has been lucky candidate in last three elections from this seat. First time as independent, second time as congress candidate and he will come back third time as BJP candidate.
VISAVADAR: Difficult one for BJP. Keshubhai’s son bharatbhai was openly working for congress candidate on this seat. This is tradionally keshubhai’s seat. So it can goto congress.
AMRELI GEN: incumbent congress candidate on this seat is gajera family member. Dhiru gajera who is contesting from surat after defecting from BJP. Last time purshottam rupala (BJP president being kadva patidar) lost seat against 25 year old congress candidate (leuva patidar) in this predominantly leuva patidar seat. This time BJP candidate on this seat Mr sanghani is strong candidate.
BHAVNAGAR SOUTH GEN: Sureshot BJP seat.
BARDOLI : BJP this time.
SURAT CITY NORTH GEN: Mr Dhiru gajera defected from BJP and is contesting on Congress seat. This seat is sure shot BJP seat this time. I have myself done some amount of ground work on this seat.
[...] while not acknowledging as much. This time it is the Business Standard borrowing liberally from Offstumped Predictions for Phase 1 in its piece on Battleground Gujarat (pay close attention to the reference to the tossup seats and [...]