The month long election has reached an interesting juncture with the first four phases of voting done with barely over a week to go before the votes are counted.
The turnout figures for phase 4 seem quite encouraging in stark contrast to the less than impressive turnout in phase 3.
West Bengal, where polling was held in 17 constituencies, the voter turnout was “large” (about 75%). In Jammu and Kashmir where the Srinagar constituency went to the polls, there was a low turnout (around 24%), he said.
In J and K the polling this time was better. In 2004 it was 18.57 per cent and in the 1999 Lok Sabha poll it was 11.93 per cent. Separatists had given a poll boycott call in the State.
This phase covered Haryana – for 10 seats, Rajasthan 25, Punjab 4, West Bengal 17, Bihar 3, Jammu and Kashmir 1, Uttar Pradesh 18 and NCT of Delhi 7.
Bihar recorded a turnout of 37 per cent. It was 63 in Haryana, 65 in Punjab, and 50 each in Rajasthan and UP.
With this phase, polling has been completed in 457 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies and an average of about 55.5 voters had cast their votes
Continuing with Offstumped analysis of bellwhether seats there are about 4 seats that are of interest across phases 3 and 4. (click here for analysis of bellwhether seats in Phase 1 and Phase 2)
#1 Banaskantha in Gujarat
#2 Anand in Gujarat
#3 Bulsar in Gujarat
#4 Sikar in Rajashthan
Of these the 3 seats in Gujarat can be considered the most reliable indicators of the BJP’s prospects of forming a government at the Center. The 3 seats in Gujarat voted 5 out of 6 times for the party that either formed the government in Delhi or for a party that supported it. More importantly every single time these seats voted for the BJP a Non-Congress government was formed at the center. If this report is anything to go by the Congress is clearly not fancying its chances in Banaskantha. However the Satta market seems to punt for the Congress in Anand.
Sikar in Rajasthan too got it right 5 out of 6 times and has not voted against the BJP in the last 3 elections. It can be considered a reliable indicator of the anti-Congress sentiment except for 2004. The big unknown this year in Sikar is the emergence of the CPI-M making it a triangular fight. No data yet on the turnout figures in Sikar, it will be interesting to see if a high turnout is an indicator of red and saffron mobilization.
Two other seats in Delhi which have reliably voted for the party that forms the Government were Delhi Outer and Delhi Sadar both of which have been transformed in the post-delimitation era making seats in Delhi less reliable an indicator of which way the wind is blowing.
Phase 5 has some interesting bellwhether seats in Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and an odd seat in West Bengal.
In retrospect it must be said that we need to come to terms with the reality that Lok Sabha elections are no longer a referendum on national issues but are really about control of the national power structure. End of the day the choice that has to be made by each voter is about which coalition has earned their trust to be vested with that control.
When viewed through the prism of power structures, the post results game of bluff becomes as important as the prepoll agenda. It is clear that no matter what the outcome is on May 16th BJP’s best chances lie in the rather outcome of the game of bluff that will be played between the Congress and the Communists after May 16th.
More on that game of bluff in the next post.
Originally posted here
Filed under: Dharmayudh-2009, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009
moily got boot because he couldnt manage press conference of Rahul gandhi.
Strong statement against nitish is just excuse.
I makes me feel that congress will have to pay very heavy price of Rahulji’s press conference.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4493246.cms
I don’t understand where these so called economist get these fantastic ideas to write articles like these
“Hindutva is, of course, completely different from Hinduism, the highly eclectic, diverse, polytheistic religion and culture followed by 80% of all Indians. Hindutva seeks to unify Hindu society on the basis of hostility towards non-Hindus and redefine Indian nationhood in a way that would make religious minorities second class citizens.
“
Guys
Do you it is time after the 4th phase, some of the BJP spokesmen let out sounds in the media that NDA Govt if they come to power will examine the role of media whether they have been partisan and whether they indulged in anti democratic activities ?
These soundbites though extremely sensitive need to be couched in statesmanesque and cryptic langauge , though essentially they will examine role of Timesnow, IBN , NDTV, Times of India, Hindu etc but to be subtle and cryptic , perhaps we can say “Fourth estate is very crucial to success of democracy and we will examine the role of the media and how it can be strengthened to promote nationalistic interests in a non partisan manner”
This sound good rhetoric to your guys
KA – Gujjuman
The media is eating humble pie if Moily is getting ousted. Please see below what a pro Congress sickular journalist had written on Rediff. I have pasted the link as well the exact para , my my humble pie it is going to be till 16th.
The link :-
http://election.rediff.com/column/2009/may/05/loksabhapoll-the-day-rahul-gandhi-moved-centrestage.htm
The para :-
“”"”During the press conference when Rahul Gandhi was answering questions, M Veerappa Moily, the old, battle-scarred Congress warhorse, was observing the boy quietly. It almost seemed that after every answer that Rahul gave to the journalists, Moily was heaving a sigh of relief. He seemed so relieved when the press conference finally got over — like a school master who anxiously watched his ward pass an ‘entrance exam’. “”"”
Looks like a campaign is being launched against sony for making bhagvan hanuman as an object pf play in a game. now wait for the twist by sickulars once campaign gathers steam.
Swapan Dasgupta on his blog comments said…
I think it is necessary to reiterate that the estimates are made on the strength of talking to pollsters (those who conduct exit polls), the media and some select officials. They are only indicative and can often go horribly wrong. It would be wrong to make political calculations only on the strength of these estimates.
The IB figures, as some of you have correctly pointed out, can vary wildly. As far as I am aware, there is no official IB estimate provided to ministers. The figures, when they are supplied, are done informally and based on complete deniability. Also, different sections of the intelligence apparatus have their own estimates. The IB is not equipped to handle poll statistics. Their estimates are based on impressions gathered in police stations. In a huge Lok Sabha constituency these can go awry.
Why is the NDA doing badly in Punjab? I think the anticipated transition from Prakash Singh Badal to his son Sukhbir is not being well received. Sukhbir has a serious image problem.
“”"In a jolt to the Mayawati government, an advisory board set up to review Varun Gandhi’s arrest under the draconian National Security Act “”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NSA-against-Varun-invalid-UP-advisory-board/articleshow/4500120.cms
its probably the first report in which the media has called the NSA “draconian” thus far it was “stringent” “strict” “tough” so media sensing winds of change in power circles????
Just now tele-campaigned for some TN seats. Collected few BJP votes. My last call remained my last call because of this “Brahmin-Urban-Upper middle class-Teacher” jubiliantly saying he gonna vote for DMK, since they are the ones who are good for the State Govt. empl. and that ended up as my last call. God Save India.
@narayan
why is it that you think its the responsibility of only the “”Brahmin-Urban-Upper middle class-Teacher”" to vote sensibly????
not only in TN but the whole country is filled with retarded people who take decisions based on equally dumbfounding reasons..sadly, its impossible to expect the literate people to make educated choices.. there is a fine line of difference between being literate and being educated(abt factors upon which to decide whom to vote for in a national election)..
till the time the nationalist agenda does not reach the people fully and educate them, such inexplicable behavior will continue to haunt us..
i think if akalis bring only 2 seats to table,they can be done away with. they must be forced to recognise importance of bjp in state. let bjp go ahead and withdraw. numerous reports have come.
With most of the Akali leaders camping in Bathinda to garner support for the party candidate and Parkash Singh Badal’s daughter-in-law, the BJP is left on its own to campaign for the saffron party candidates.
Speculation is rife of a possible rift within the alliance in Punjab. Instances of both the BJP and SAD leaders skipping the meetings of the other party’s candidates have also fuelled the speculation.
The BJP is contesting on three seats in the State while the SAD is contesting 10. The BJP has fielded cricketer Navjot Singh Sidhu from Amritsar, film star Vinod Khanna from Gurdaspur and bureacrat Som Nath from Hoshiarpur.
The rift within the alliance can be gauged from the fact that Bikranjit Singh Majithia, a former Minister and party incharge in Amritsar, is not in the constituency and is camping in Bathinda for his sister and daughter-in-law of Parkash Singh Badal.
Earlier, both the BJP and SAD had held separate demonstrations in Amritsar against Congress candidates from Delhi Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar, who were later dropped in the wake of strong public sentiments.
Moreover, in the advertisements by SAD, none of the BJP leaders is given any space, except for LK Advani, who figures in a corner. The BJP leaders say that they are fighting it alone on all the three seats in the State.
On the other hand, the Youth Akali Dal president of Gurdaspur district Harjit Singh camping in Bathinda told The Pioneer that Youth Akali leaders from across the State will reach Bathinda soon to campaign for the party candidate. “If the BJP is on the losing side, what we can do?” Singh said accompanying Badal during the campaign in Bathinda.
http://dailypioneer.com/174840/BJP-fights-it-out-alone-in-Punjab.html
I hope somebody is reading this, if Swapan Da number is right, please open back channel to Naveen Patnaik.
Thanks
@Indian … If Swapan Da’s number is right, Naveen Patnaik will be opening a back-channel to BJP.
Sheila’s role gets bigger in party?
“She is a performer. Whatever she says now carries a lot of weight in party circles,” a senior Congress leader said.
http://www.asianage.com/presentation/leftnavigation/news/top-story/sheila’s-role-gets-bigger-in-party.aspx
@KKumar … at least she is getting a bigger role based on her performance and not just loyalty to the first family of congress (though that is a required trait) …
Question is will Sonia support someone like Sheila, who has her own standing in the party. Will Sheila be slave like MMS to Sonia?
@KKumar … of course Sheila won’t get support from Sonia or baba … are you forgetting what happened after the 2003 Assembly elections when Sheila Dixit had won delhi for congress the 2nd time ?? Someone made a statement that she could be a PM candidate for the Congress and the High Command waited 3 full days before re-appointing Sheila as the CM of Delhi …
The sad part about Congress is that the more a CM is successful, the less are his/her chances of becoming a PM.. The only citeria in Congress for becoming a PM is that you should have “Gandhi” as your surname …
Ghatotkacha
Thanks for your response.
You are right. Sonia keeps all leaders with mass support away from the central power structure. Only those who followe her commands are allowed to inner circle. I pity poor Pranab Mukarjee, most experience congress person.
balaji
report on venkaih krishnagiri meeting
http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/09/stories/2009050954350500.htm
I expect a case against modi by ec for having sword in jalandhar rally.
Is there a possibility that BJP will score a zero from punjab. looks like all three gurudaspur, amritsar, jalandhar are tough with first two edge reportedly for rivals.
There is every possibility that badal junior and his bil will stump sidhu
This is why I said the BJP’s prospects depend on the game of bluff between Congress and Left. Jaitley is also echoing the same.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090509/jsp/nation/story_10937610.jsp
Yoss. with 165 BJP and 215 NDA, how can the President not invite them first? They may not get support from Naidu etc but they have to be invited first.
yossarin,
You are right, definitely congress supported 3rd front will get first opportunity to form congress thanks to puppet president.
But I disagree that with 200+ seat NDA cant form government.
AIADMK + = 20+
TDP+ = 20+
BJD+ =10
Mamta = 10
Other =5-7.
I think the rediff interview by sheela bhat on constitution which I posted speaks very clearly on the situations.
Why is everybody forgetting BSP ? With BSP+ADMK++TDP+BJD+Mamata, it will be comfortable.
“With BSP+ADMK++TDP+BJD+Mamata, it will be comfortable.”
It will probably be “outside,” “issue-based” support from one or more of these “allies.” Naidu will definitley extract the highest price, as always.
And there’s no doubt that puppet Rashtrapati will extend her invitation based on the dynasty’s prescription.
Guys – you are missing the point. BJP/NDA must not repeat its 1996 mistake by betraying an eagerness to form the govt without firming up the numbers. Its exactly this strategy that Jaitley is alluding to. They shud sit out round 1 and let the upa and 3rd front exhaust all improbable scenarios trying to call each other’s bluff. Only then will fence sitters like trs, tdp, bjd etc will be compelled to support bjp. Otherwise the outside chance of a 3rd front govt will always encourage them to play hard to get. The only sustainable scenario for the bjp is one where the fence sitters are faced with a choice between another cong govt or a fresh election. Only then will the compulsion translate into a firm commitment to nda. Otherwise it will be a very shaky arrangement that may end up being still born like in 1996.The bjp must not actively publicly court the fence sitters. It must instead let the 3rd front unravel by its own contradictions with varied interests seeking the bjp’s support for issues ranging from telangana to protecting turf in orissa and andhra.
http://election.dinamalar.com/catroon.asp?ncat=CC#
I saw the first cartoon in this tamil daily interesting and thought of sharing with you guys.
Those who don’t know tamil the words in the cartoon is in tamil for “prime ministerial candidate”
This is how local press see the difference between MMS and LKA.
Yoss
I fully support your view. Since congress is showing undue haste in retaining power, BJP should sit silently and allow the tamasha to go on particularly if it gets considerably more seats than congress to expose power hungry congress. Congress will definitely support 3rd front to deflect attention of the performance of the family. Also we have to think of long term impact on the goal of majority on its own for BJP in the future. some patience is required to emerge as “Party with difference”. I think LKA will be more happy to see a stronger BJP govt in the future than heading rag tag coalition currently.
Majority on its own for the BJP is not possible in the next 20 years. If BJp waits that long, the “secular establishment” will by then remove all chances for India emerging as a powerful nation by submitting to CTBT, FMCT and such treaties either explicitly or indirectly. The nuclear deal is a classic example of such a sell off.
See the following comment in IE regarding Varun.
“Note to Varun
By: DR. Petrol pump_jas_rsunder | Saturday , 9 May ’09 3:44:24 AMReply | Forward
It is not muslims who are danger to hindus and India.It is vatican agents spread in the media and public life who are more danger to nation. Their sole aim is to destroy Indian culture and introduce nomadic culture of west”
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/After-Round-4-BJP-confident-of-inching-ahead-of-Congress/articleshow/4500541.cms
[...] India Elections 2009 Phase 3 & Phase 4 Analysis The month long election has reached an interesting juncture with the first four phases of voting done with barely over [...] [...]
Folks, look at the IBNLIVE.com website.
They are reporting as headline – ‘Advani supports Ram mandir’.
LKA said nothing of the sort. He said (according to Hindustantimes) that we will build a temple as and when Hindus AND Muslims want it.
IBN is playing a game to scare secular fence sitters to move away from the BJP.
Guys, we need to make it clear to the pseudo secular media on this point.
If you take sides openly as is increasingly evident, u become a party to in this battle.
And the BJP and its sympathisers have every right to confront you and call your bluff.
When the likes of NaMO and Swapan da, openly (and repeatedly) point out the pro-congress media’s games, we know things are reaching a point of no return.
IBN/NDTV/Timesnow in particular cannot hide behind the media tag. They are more Congress’ media cell than an idependent and free voice of the people.
mpanj,
I believe dhimmedia is well aware its mask is slipping beyond the point of no return.
Question is ok, then what?
IMO, BJP must have sent the message to the dhimmedia news fabricators and traders that there will be consequences for their actions. Now either that message was not received or it was not credible. Nothing else explains the present melee.
Karatasaur speaketh.
Link
“We will work to form a non-BJP, non-Congress government. The Third Front is poised to make a serious bid to form government. I hope the secular, non-Congress parties will come together with us.”
Prakash Karat
CPI-M general secretary
Yoss’s reply to Shekhar will fall on deaf ears. This is the person who said to a porkistani in porkistan that we will take care of the BJP. No expectations from these news dalals.
TOI is saying: “poll winds in Tamil Nadu are flowing in favour of the Congress-DMK alliance.”
source:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/After-Round-4-BJP-confident-of-inching-ahead-of-Congress/articleshow/4500541.cms
WTF ?
Rahul’s foot in the mouth
It was extremely naïve, therefore, for Rahul to further rock the leaky boat by his praise of Nitish Kumar and the expression of hope about the Left’s return to the Congress-led coalition.
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Rahul’s+foot+in+the+mouth&artid=HlZQ2ww1x6Q=&SectionID=RRQemgLywPI=&MainSectionID=RRQemgLywPI=&SectionName=XQcp6iFoWTvPHj2dDBzTNA==&SEO=Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Rahul Gandhi; prime
Sud,
bhagwan ke ghar mey daer hai andher nahi
I remember complaining (about the media bias) to fence sitting Indians a few years back and the response was ‘Oh u r just another saffronite’.
Now the same people are shaking their heads at the pro-congress bias.
ANother important point here is that even the Laloos and Mulayams are warming up to this idea – that the press, particularly the English language press is unabashedly pro-congress.
Witness how Sagarika was jumping out of her skin trying to beat Yechuri into deciding between a Congress led govt. or a LKA/Modi led govt.
I think people are recognising these dalals for what they are.
I strongly believe we will witness the birth of a center-of-right media in India within the next 3-4 years.
I would be very surprised if Yoss/Friends of the BJP arent thinking on similar lines.
<>
Comment posted on Express Buzz – hilarious!!!
@mpanj
the problem is media is not just that media houses are Dalals. The core is that the colleges most jurnos get their degree from are strongholds of left-wing pseudo-seculars.
So while new right wing media maybe the short term answer to Sirdesais and Faker Guptas, we should work to get more right wing people into journalism and related colleges
Comment in the earlier post should have been:
Blame it on Rahul’s long compaign trail, during which he has spent many nights in CATTLE SHEDS of U.P, Bihar & M.P. So it is MOST likely that he has caught the FOOT & MOUTH Disease from those cattle!
Also,
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/rahul-gandhi-remark-sours-tc-cong-ties/357566/
More fallout from Raul Baba’s F&M disease.
Ajay,
good point. But if Barkha Dutt (and most other leading lights of the anti-India press) is a product of St.Stephens, so are Swapan Da and Shourieji.
But you’re right the vast majority of these ‘journalists’ are grown and nurtured in the incestous breeding ground – that is our left leaning academia.
The slow (but sure) death of paper media and the rise of the electronic media should give us hope.
There are alternatives – its time we start developing and nurturing our own.
well after all they have got 400 cr of illgotten money from this government.
so dear if i am given 400 cr obviously i too will praise lollipop
Paisa yeh paisa
on a serious note i believe ARUN SHOURIE will be right candidate as I&B minister.
he will BLAST all these PADMASHRI journalist
OK dear hold your Breath and read
this.http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090509/jsp/frontpage/story_10939574.jsp
Sania Khatoun, a year and 11 months old, was in mother Aleya Bibi’s lap last night, being fed her dinner, when alleged CPM supporters entered their home and opened indiscriminate fire. One of the bullets went through Sania’s leg, and then lodged in the stomach of Aleya, 27.
No one has been arrested for Sania’s murder because “no one has filed any complaint”, East Midnapore superintendent of police P.K. Ghosh said.
WHERE IS HUMAN RIGHT,MINORITY COMMISSION,SECULAR MEDIA,LEFTIST INTELLECTUAL????
JUST SEE SP is saying NO ONE ARRESTED BCOZ “NOBODY COMPLAINED??????”
@Narayan, Don;t feel bad about such incidents. We need to develop thick skin when we get into active politics..
My teen-cousin voted for Rahul because she likes his dimple and he looks ignorant hence has her sympathy – this is MTV Roadies Era!!
She calls Rahul ‘differently enabled’ !!
@prashant … I am surprised that you still have any hopes from the hacks who pass for Media persons in our country ….
From the toi article
In the last round of polling due later next week, BJP is hoping to take two of Himachal Pradesh’s four seats, two of Uttarakhand’s five seats.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/After-Round-4-BJP-confident-of-inching-ahead-of-Congress/articleshow/4500541.cms
Why only two in Uttarakhand and H.P?. earlier polls were talking abt 4-1 in uttarakhand and 3-1 in h.p
Another Congress spokesman is sacked.
From India Today:
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=41054§ionid=4&secid=0&issueid=104&Itemid=1
“Congress leadership sacks Ashwini Kumar as party spokesman over his TDP remark”
Prank,
this is what I fear. After 26/11, a friend of mine had a similar argument with a cousin who is much younger. And to his shock, this cousin was parroting the same ‘all politicians are to blame’ line that Barkha and Sarphira were peddling.
They are (pseudo seculars) are catching them young and raising them on the opium of ‘light candles at the wagah border’ ideology.
We need a right-of-center media like Raul Gandhi needs a brain.
folks, please pay attention to where it is due. BJP needs to send its Bihar MLAs on a long tour right away, preferably to a location in Karnataka. And keep these Bihar MLAs in isolation until things stabilize. If they dont, they will make it very easy for Nitish.
HT reports that Advani said Nitish vetoed Modi’s campaign in Bihar. I will read this to mean that Advani is letting Nitish know what he is upto.
@Mpanj,
I agree with you about having a media house. YSR realized it fast in AP and started his own media empire.
I still don’t understand why BJP/Sangh doesn’t think about Media..
That said, I think this teen-cousin is going to change in a few years – when she starts searching for a job, starts earning, starts asking questions about how her tax money is being spent and when she goes through 3-4 levels of private security at her office building etc.
@Prank,@mpanj,
I have lot of friends, cousins and relatives of this type. Most of them do not have good reading habit and so cannot delve into details and understand the truth. And like every avg Indian pretend like they already know the topic of discussion and hence fail to catch the gist. As someone has said it here before, I think the shit has to hit the ceiling for everyone to come to consensus.
With Varun vs Mayawati confrontation rising, BJP cannot and shouldnt think of BSP as an ally.
Just for sake of power, why should BJP align with BSP. The way she is going, she will be wiped out due to her arrogance , her lack of performance on the ground next time around
It is better for her to die a natural death, like Laloo is in process, though by hanging around for more time than required, Laloo did and still does get on right wing nerves. But aint revenge sweet.
Rahul’s timing of Press conference and praise of Nitish should also be viewed as internal Cong strategy to wipe Laloo out, since Patliputra his second constituency went for polling after Rahul Foot in mouth event.
Laloo winning in Saran looked doubtful and I guess the Cong high command went for the jugular before his second constituency went for polling, they were after all humiliated by Laloo.
So much for Laloo-Sonia friendship.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/varun-for-sterlisation-scheme-military-training/92192-37.html
All I could find was that he wanted to follow in his father’s footsteps (even in the the original Telegraph article)..
Has anyone seen the actual interview?
IBN is breaking news that TRS will be at NDA rally tomorrow.
PTI was reporting that TRS would not join the rally but TRS chief would meet Advani in Delhi.
If they changed their mind and decided to join NDA rally, that is very good news and shows which way winds are blowing.
Third front will lose the first member. Hopefully that will start the process.
TRS will join the TF if they form the govt.The reality is that NDA will be the last option for all these parties.I think INC & TF will try to form the govt. and if those attempts don’t work then NDA is a possibility.Anyway TRS will bring about 5 MPs and that too is uncertain as they may defect.
I think varun is preparing ground to make UP as his battleground. BY taking on mayawati he is planning to become the leader of all those fed up of goons and thereby extend his fan base in up.
it is to be seen if he can convert his initial base into strong one with ‘development economics’
Talking of Right wing Journalism. The Daily Pioneer has one College, where they train journalists. Sri Sri has one, headed by Francois Gautier, I believe. So the situation is bound to improve in a couple of years…
Tanmay
I feel TRS will see which way the wind is blowing as also a lot others.
Conservative estimates are as below :-
The plausible right now looks like NDA at 210 (BJP 160 and NDA allies 50) and UPA 170 (ie Cong 135, allies 35, since I see NCP at 8, DMK max 10 and Trinamool at 12, LJP-RJD at 5 max).
Left which is the only one really talking about Non Cong and Non BJP govt (I havent yet really heard this from TDP, AIADMK, PRP etc) could be at about 40 odd.
BSP at about 30, AIADMK at about 25 (worse scenario assumed), TDP/TRS about 24, SP about 20 odd.
So lets look at options assuming we have Save Secularism rhetoric after May 16th.
UPA plus Left will be 210. They still need another 65 odd. Assuming they rope in BSP/AIADMK it will be 265 within striking distance. But will Mayawati even accept a Deputy PM from Cong. Cong is never going to offer PM to another party. (However it will be fun to watch Mayawati, Jaya , Brinda Karat all in the same gang, wont it be amusing)
It seem that after trying various combinations, a Third Front or a Cong govt becomes more and more unlikely if NDA crosses 210. The others are simply too far behind to make it up.
Precisely knowing this is everybody trying to woo Nitish , since he is easily going to be largest ally in NDA with expectation around 22-23 odd. (of the 27-28 odd he is fighting on his own (includes few outside Bihar like 2 in Jharkhand)
However a lot also depends on Cong own performance. If they are even 7-8 seats below what I project above as 135 (135 according to me is conservative) , then the game just gets even tougher for the Psecs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/5297830/Indian-election-Varun-Gandhi-vows-to-follow-in-fathers-footsteps.html
Guys VARUN SAID NOTHING ON STERILIZATION.
SUE THESE &^&^*^&*.
Venkatrajan,
You are right about Nitish’s role.
Everything depends on whether the INC will support the TF.In that case TDP,TRS,RLD,BJD will join it.
The Left may decide to support INC govt. on the condition that MMS is not PM.Karat thinks that BJP is nowhere in the reckoning and INC will be the SLP with about a dozen seats less.If BJP emerges as the SLP with a substantial lead over INC then Karat will come under pressure from INC & Bengal CPM.
If NDA gets 210 then TDP+,AIADMK+,BJD,JDS can raise that number to 260-270.I don’t think TC will support BJP or she may even abstain.
The statements Varun has been making, takes a lot of guts. Considering a media that is so hostile waiting for any moment to crucify him, if he still makes such comments, one thing is sure, he is politically incorrect and blunt, and he believes in what he says… how many times we might have lamented that India needs to enforce some form of population control……. I think, India needs to enforce some sort of population control programs.. certainly he speaks my mind …
ok now we know courtesy our SECULAR INDIAN MEDIA:
“Anti Social” means Indian Muslim
“Mia Mussaraff” means Indian Muslim
“Osama” means Indian Muslim
Sterilisation of population control” means Indian Muslim
Our MUSLIM brother now YOU decide WHO are your Well wishers
@RANGANATHAN,
you are right, POPULATION is a major issue to be dealt with.
With an Ambiguous statement by Congis on whom Rashtrapathi Rubber stamp should invite first, stage seems to be well set for a dubious decision by Pratibha. She might even compare UPA with BJP(not pre-poll or post-poll NDA) to invite Congis. Hence the ground work should be done well by BJP well before 16th, for a possible visit to her with letters
Anyone welcome barring BSP: Rajnath (Link)
Varun for revival of sterilisation policy
WTF? Dhimmedia run amok this time. Quoting The oppn’s rhetoric as headlined fact.
Seems Karat is softening up on supporting Congress as per Breaking News, I am sure a denial will come later in the day. This has been the pattern between the Left and Cong, saying cryptically and denying.
this poll on NDTV says it all..
Q.What could be the biggest surprise of Election 2009?
BJP and Congress pick up 30-40 seats in UP
Congress holds on in Andhra Pradesh
DMK holds on in Tamil Nadu
Jayalalithaa sweeps all seats and moves to UPA
The Left gets wiped out in West Bengal (less than 20 seats)
One of the formations ends up sweeping Maharashtra
Nitish emerges as head of
Pawar emerges as head of
Cong or BJP change their PM candidate to form a govt
No one can form a govt & we have fresh elections
i guess the media should take sides openly(like the american media).. its their right to do so..but cheating the country and selling national interests to please their pockets is the most treacherous thing!!!
I think just like rahul gandhi is onto his discovery of india, vaarun seems to be on discovery of his dad sanjay gandhi. he needs to be told to carry out this discovery of his father in private rooms and not in public.
to any son his father is a hero, but he forgets his father was a villain too for many. i hope he discovers that too ans stops referring to his father as a hero in every party rally.
Sudheendra kulkarni says congress not untouchable we can work with it, takes high moral ground.
http://www.indopia.in/India-usa-uk-news/latest-news/570028/National/1/20/1
karatosaur says we will take decison on alliance with ongress after 16th. now that makes it clear.
TRS to attend nda rally. naidu has already said, trs can be part of nda at centre and GA govt at andhra. the lefts in andhra have to open their mouth. if they dont support naidu if their support is vital, naidu will say bye to left.
i hope that naidu does not need left support to form govt in AP. that will be the most important factor in TDP support to NDA.
Tamils needed “peaceful honourable existence through self rule”.
“Both AIADMK and DMK have wrongly backed the formation of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka. We believe in focussing on the relief for the suffering Lankan Tamils as that is what the people of Tamil Nadu want,” senior BJP leader
M Venkaiah Naidu said.
More clearing of air at
http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?a=jfjs7yebbdd&title=BJP_distances_itself_from_Eelam_demand&?vsv=TopHP1
In a separate interaction with journalists, Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader Ashok Singhal endorsed the view and alleged that the Sri Lankan military had destroyed over a thousand Hindu temples in the island nation
There is still some confusion on trs attending, but if bjp have enough numbers trs is in nda camp. now i hope a aituation will come where naidu with left cannot form govt but will need trs to form govt. that wau cbn can be forced to support nda.
http://www.breakingnewsonline.net/2009/05/bjp-gets-boost-trs-hints-at-joining-nda.html
Rajasthan satta numbers – bjp9-11, congress 13-15
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1254289
about varun in philibhit
>> that will be the most important factor in TDP support to NDA.
what makes you think TCP will support NDA? Short of a miracle where TDP needs bjp mla’s support in andhra to form government, I think the best that can happen is this -
a) third front does not have numbers any which way for the tail to wag the dog
b) a congress led government is first sworn in with left participation or outside support, and TDP votes against it, leading it to fall
c) then a NDA government is formed and TDP chooses to abstain in the interest of avoiding an election. still sekoolar, and justifiable in the interest of avoiding immediate elections and saving government money.
if NDA government is formed first, TDP may still choose to abstain, but that will be difficult to explain to sekoolar crowd. I dont think admk or TDP will ever again take that risk with sekoolarism.
BJP review of delhi.
i think bjp is wrong. bsp was one of the main reason bjp lost delhi. many anti govt votes went o bsp instead of bjp.
KARAT SOFTENING TOWARD CONGRESS HAS GOT “CHINESE ANGLE”.
DONT YOU ALL REMEMBER SONIA FAMILY WAS “CHIEF GUEST” OF CHINESE DURING OLYMPIC
Subramaniam swamy tries to create more confusion.
Claiming that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in this elections, Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy on Friday predicted the possibility of a “Janata Front” with the SP, RJD and LJP as allies to back L K Advani as Prime Minister.
“Since the BJP will be the single largest party and L K Advani would be first called to form the Government, there is every possibility of a 1977-type Janata Front emerging, to which front the SP, RJD and LJP would extend support as they did (the leaders) in 1977,” he said in a release.
“I am personally in touch with my good friend Mulayam Singh, Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan to try and facilitate the formation of such a Janata Front to support the Prime Ministership of L K Advani,” he said.
Mr. Swamy said the Congress party was “living in a fool’s paradise” and “on a wild goose chase” for allies to support a Congress-led Government
more at
http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/004200905081981.htm
TOTALLY DISAGREE WITH YOSS TWITTER ON VARUN GAG ORDER.
HAD SEEN THE LIVE MEETING OF VARUN IN PILIBHIT IN TIMESNOW.
IT WAS SUPERB.
WHY “GAG” ON DOORMAT MEDIA SPINNING.
IN THAT WAY BJP WILL HAVE TO GAG ALL BJP LEADER VIEW.
prashanth,
there are many issues at play. china will want non bjp govt as this govt is not cared of foreign affairs in neighbhourhood. second karat will want to take advantage of rahul and create confusion in mind of congress workers in bengal, it we both who will align not trinamool, so dont work for them and finally if the plan is to have mutual support, then stand cannot be hardened toll 16th it has to mellow for some time before shake of hands, so the process could have been started.
nr
in the last phase mamata has direct fight with cpm.
infact mamata rally going on at present near my house and i can hear it…..
hey wait Trinamool talking of rahul statement on cpm support
Would like all to go thro. this article.
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=MK’s+waves+of+worries&artid=2Q1YH8DQLmM=&SectionID=XVSZ2Fy6Gzo=&MainSectionID=XVSZ2Fy6Gzo=&SectionName=m3GntEw72ik=
http://www.ndtv.com/news/videos/video_player.php?id=1099305
Varun Gandhi clip…..he has more brain than RG. He looks unapologetic and that is good. BJP should groom this guy for the future.
Also, now NDTV is saying that it is defeat for Mayawati….oh really why not it is defeat for psecs like NDTV?