So after a month long elections and all of us arguing which state will go which way, we are planning to use a new tool coveritlive and start the live telecast of results, we request every one to contribute and participate.
We have already got the setup done and we have around 5 panelists who are going to update the reults in live time starting from 6.oo AM IST on results day and hope to carry it on till we get the results of the last seat.
Click Here to set your reminder and login to the screen. if anyone want to participate please drop in an email to centerofrightcv@gmail.com for invitation as a panelist
We have folks from promise of reason led by chakreshm and our very own Offstumped, NR, myself who have already signed up as panel members.
Let us try this out . Please click on the link and you can set your reminders on the same. Another 60 hrs to go.
Filed under: DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, jeetega-bharat, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009
I think what Ajay says makes lot of sense. BJP is on a comeback trail in UP and if they align with Mayawati to form a govt at the center, would they be able to gain momentum in UP in the next 5 yrs?
I think BJP should make these tactical ( short term) moves keeping in mind the strategic ( long term) goals.
As far as my personal opinion is considered, BJP should keep away from people like Mayawati..she is the last thing that India needs.
if bjp align with bsp , they will finish in UP….that is 100 correct…in case they badly want to take support from UP..it is SP….atleast they have some dignity…
if bjp align with bsp , they will finish in UP….that is 100% correct…in case they badly want to take support from UP..it is SP….atleast they have some dignity…
Folks,
SwapanDa’s post script clearly says why Exit polls always predict incumbent advantage. . .
If 1 survey in 1 state of Punjab = 1 crore, how much will be all national channels for all over India. ..
Calculate the price at your own convenience!
OT, but another ‘feather’ in the cap for UPA govt.:
India destroys its chemical weapons stockpile
FTA:
India has informed the United Nations that it has destroyed its stockpile of chemical weapons in compliance with the international Chemical Weapons Convention. With this India has become third country after South Korea and Albania to do so.
@Sootradhaar
Actually this was started in way back in the 1990′s … its in the article you posted …
Giving details of the elimination process, CBW Magazine published by Indian defence ministry funded think tank Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, said that by 1999, India destroyed one percent of its stockpile to meet the CWC’s phase one requirements.
Phase two of the convention required the destruction of 20 percent of the stockpile by April 2002. By November 2003, India had destroyed 45 percent of its declared category, one stockpile six months ahead of schedule.
And in January 2008 the government declared it had destroyed over 75 percent of its chemical weapons stockpile and reiterated its commitment to eliminate the balance by 2009.
If I remember correctly she is the only person in Bangalore who can pub hop daily with a mere Rs 1.2 lac pa salary.. and always worried about that elusive orgasm even after getting laid frequently
@ghatotkacha:
I read that too…but given the precarious situation in the Indian sub-continent, esp. with two nuclear armed hostile nations side-by-side, it seems we have given up one more layer of defence, and given the way the nuke deal has been rushed in, we might as well kiss goodbye to any defensive mechanism we have in place, and rather become subservient to the whims n fancy of US and West!
My query:
Why and why now?
OT: Looks like there is a BC vs Non-BC battle going on in RSS in AP and Karnataka.. resulting in some folks getting pushed to Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram like responsibilities from Urban responsibilities..
Will this have any impact on Karnataka results?
@Pubchick
Why would I be defensive?
Now, let me explain logic to you.
Now, since you said that I’m being defensive, it’s up to you to prove that I’m being one and not up to me to prove otherwise.
I’m just taking this forward from the last forum. Hope this helps to understand you that the onus to explain something lies with the one who makes a judgement in the first place.
Now, coming to point of media losing its credibility in case of the opinion polls being biased, we should first of all judge if there is any credibility left after months of spineless reporting.
Moreover, I’m sure you understand that pushing the projections up a bit would not harm a party in any way. This is precisely the very reason why all political parties project themselves as winners. In simple terms the answer would be: To paint a more rosy picture and get more allies to tilt towards you.
Also, I really doubt if all the news channels carry out their own exit polls. In my view, most would do a simple average of the major exit polls and add or subtract a few here and there.
And, money surely counts for much more than credibility when your existence itself depends on serving your master.
Oops… goofed up with the html script I suppose.
@Sootradhar
They are talking about Chemical weapons … not Nuclear weapons … Chem weapons are not very effective (these have been around since WW1) … so India has nothing to lose by destroying its stockpile of Chem weapons … look at it this way, the resources that were being utilized for keeping a chem arsenal, can now be utilized in a more effective way …
Sardesai includes BJD in his all possible UPA Govt formations and more over he gets one more formation with Lalu,Paswan,Nitish Kumar in UPA. I think in this way Sardesai can find infinite routes to form UPA govt.
Diggy Singh says all the political parties in India except BJP and SS are secular. SP,MIM and such others who target a particular community are 100% secular. India is really shining.
Take some rest guys… lets see what happpens on 16th… what time does the counting begin??? and make sure not to hold Modi’s hand … you will be termed Communal
the way Media is talking of “dump laloo for nitish” “dump mulayam for maya” “dump karunnnidhi for jaya” in favour of congi it reminds me of MANDI where Soul is just being sold by our MEDIA for few bucks
shame on them
the same media will talk of IDEOLOGY after 16 MAY when NDA will form the govt with support of non-nda partner.
It will MAKE my day if somebody TODAY will Tell Prannoy Roy that NDTV is actually the “bro-in-law” of Communist party in today discussion.
I still remember their faces after Maran told that N RAM is COMMUNIST PARTY MEMBER
These are the exit polls from 2004, from another forum.
Alliance NDTV Z-News AajTak Star-News Sahara Actuals
————————————————————————————————-
NDA 230-250 233 243 253 249 186
INC+ 190-205 165 184 178 162 217
Others 100-120 118 90 86 94 136
Go figure.
hUmDiNgEr: You have left out many other SECULAR parties viz. Muslim Leage, PDP (of Abdul Nasser Madhani (who is now being questioned by intelligence agencies to ascertain his connections with people who have indulged in terrorist activities), various Kerala Congresses etc. Congress and Communists have issued certificates to these parties. They are therefore the beacon lights of Indian Secularism. The test of Secularism is the degree of appeasement of minorities, the more the appeasement the more secular the party is.
Is it not a paradox that no party which is not secular can fight an election as “Secularism” is enshrined in our constitution? Still Congress and Communists brand some parties as Non-Secular (communal). Perhaps their kind of secularism is something completely different from what is enshrined in our Constitution.
Is it not an insult to the people who vote for the persons belonging to these parties (BJP and SS) branding them as communal as calling these parties Communal tantamount to calling the voters too as communal.
Milind, read the comments above. Carefully.
atleast ndtv agreed one seat for bjp in WB, for jaswant
ndtv-bookies are favouring nda
Thinking over the ELM, I was convinced a while ago their reporting has become a matter of propagating ideology. Due to this they have lost the capability to be objective about issues. And it does not matter whether the underlying ideology they are trying to push is pseudo-secular, communist or Hindutva, once they lost objectivity they turned into broken records looking for the same angles in every news item.
What I am not sure about is whether this phenomenon is due to a lack of good professional practices or indicates something more sinister behind the scenes.
Times Now is running a headline about emergency meeting at BJP tomorrow.
Any guesses if the info is credible?
This is purely OT, but I want to share.
http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Repository/ml.asp?Ref=VE9JQkcvMjAwOS8wNS8xNCNBZDAxMTA5&Mode=G&Locale=english-skin-custom
Evangelists are now gonna lure the yuppy class. Just goes to show, how much our media is in the hands of evangelists. Sad development.
Cong ready to sacrifice YSR as CM to woo TRS and Chiru – Times now
Some valid points from Swapan’s blog
Two important points ignored by Psephologist
a) Most of the exit polls are converting state wise trends into seats. Expect Tamil Nadu none of the larger states are monolithic in their voting pattern. The classic example is converting higher voteshare of INC in Rayalseema region to seats across AP.
b) Gallagher effect is also missed by the media groups. They did the same mistake in Karnataka assembly elections, they are doing so now in the UP electoral trends.
For more info read about Gallagher Index @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallagher_Index
These are the two points you can use while attending TV debates on Exit Polls.
Regards,
Arun Narendhranath -
Swapan has an update on his blog. His newest post(email from other guy) makes immense sense about the numbers from AP. Apparently, and as always, the English Media screwed up their numbers.
TN, Assam and UP are seemingly the only riddles left unsolved.
I think PubChick will the first one to get lured. May be that girl on the cover is PubChick.
Cong 13, BSP – 28, SP 23, BJP + 14 in UPA
Arun Narendranath’s predictions make lot of sense and I think Kumar will also agree with this. Kumar is the one who knows a lot about AP predictions.
By the way, let’s not hijack this discussion for one pub chick.
Maharashtra – UPA 29, NDA – 19 as per NDTV.
So finally NDTV gives the next Govt to UPA
If we are falling short of numbers and are not in a position to bargain with other parties, how about splitting parties like TDP, NCP and Mayavathi and weaning 10-20 MPs away with money bags. I think this is definitely feasible, TDP because of Telangana pressure the T-leaders would come out, NCP if NCP gets less seats and BSP for obvious reasons. Though I strictly don’t like this way but this option should be explored as a final attempt this time, since India badly needs NDA.
Vijay,
Have they given INC numbers?Won’t be surprised if they give 170+.
they gave it 166
<>
Necessary condition is NDA gets more seats than UPA+Commies.
TN, JJ is a real black box. JJ is a maverick.
YOSS
Can someone tabulate what is the exit poll predictions of comparatively less biased regional language media.
YOSS, Others
Can we tabulate what we know about exit poll predictions of comparatively less biased regional language media.
ZIM
ZIM, good idea. How about state-wise compilation? People can turn in their state’s predictions or state with which one is most familiar.
To start with, KA’s local media predictions :
BJP-18-20, JDS-3-4, Cong-5-7
Times now saying, Amar Singh and rajnath singh have a chat , breaking news on TV
Frankly, the more I read these predictions, the confusion increases
Regarding Arun Narendranath’s predictions, yes, I agree with his numbers for AP LS seats.However, even local newspapers, channels and junta is unable to say who will win in almost 25 of the 42 seats.Arun Narendranath has given consensus numbers and added some fancy numbers around distribution of vote % in various regions.
There is a very basic flaw in CNN-IBN’s numbers for INC’s AP vote % for LS.As per Rajdeep, there is no anti-incumbency effect in Congress because PRP’s 14% is coming from TDP and TRS
In a multi-pronged contest at both assembly and Lok Sabha levels in AP, cross voting happens a lot.This can upset the numbers from the opinion polls.
Also, BJP got around 8% votes in AP in 2004.This is the BJP core base in AP, mostly concentrated in Twin cities, and some other urban areas.Then you have the Left with its core base as well.I don’t see this being accounted for in any of the exit polls.
there is a very interesting peace in swapanda’s blog by Arun Narendranath: He writes about bradley effect, gallagher effect applied on Indian situation:
Arun Narendranath, one of the most avid followers of elecoral trends, sent me this email. I am taking the liberty of posting it:
Read ur blog just now. Spot on in saying that four states of AP, Maha, Assam & UP have not been analyzed properly. Lets try and explain the flaws here
Assumption: the voteshare estimates by these TV channels have not been fudged. (though this may not be true).
AP:
Let for once assume that vote share given by CNN IBN is correct in the state of AP.
INC: 42%
TDP+: 25 + 5%
PRP: 14%
Now converting the same into regional trends.
In Telanagana it would convert into
INC: 40%
Mahakuttami: 45%
In Costa region:
East & West Godavari districts:
INC: 35%
PRP: 35-40%
TDP: 20-24%
Krishna Districts:
INC: 35%
TDP+: 37-38%
PRP: 27-30%
and finally in Rayalseema:
INC: 55%
PRP:15%
TDP: 20-25%
This would translate into the following number of seats:
INC: 15-17
MIM:1
TRS:6-7
TDP: 12-14
PRP: 3
TDP & TRS will get their seats mostly from the Telangana region. TDP will get the additional seats in Krishna district (seats like Vijayawada, Srikakulam). PRP will do well in Nasarpur, Kakinada. INC will sweep Rayalseema (by huge margins) & win about 20-30% seats in costa & Telangana. This effect has been clearly captured by vernacular media(read the predictions of MAA & Itv, Shakshi is owned by YSR’s Son). The attached file will clear show how the English media has completely mis-interpreted when the vernacular media caught the trend.
Bottomline: Even if Mr. Babu is not inclined towards BJP/NDA most of his MPs would be. Because they would be mostly from the Telangana region and would have won the election because of the T-Sentiment. If TDP does not come to NDA its worth buying them with Mr. Badal’s money bag.
Maharashtra:
a) Though UPA can make marginal gains in Vidharba & Maratwada, they will loose seats in Mumbai & Thane, Western Maharashtra.
b) The MNS has done extremely well in 3 seats Thane, Nashik & Mumbai-North East (NCP will win in Thane & Nashik because MNS played the spoiler). Though they polled very well in Mum NE, it is difficult to upset Kirit. The assumption that MNS has damaged NDA across the state is false. Their effect was restricted to 3-4 seats.
c) The most interesting factor the exit polls have missed in Maharashtra was the internal conflict between NCP & INC. There were several rebel candidate in the fray from both INC & NCP. Though NCP was in alliance with INC, all its cadres were sabotaging the prospects of INC candidates and vis-versa. For instance in Pune, Mr. Sharad Pawar was campaigning hard for Mr. Kalmadi but his nephew Mr. Ajit Pawar was indirectly supporting Mr. Anil Shirole of BJP. This is very similar to bradley effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect). The NCP voter pressed the button against the lotus when they claimed they would do so against the hand. The bradley effect will be found in the following seats.
Pune. Latur, Nanded, Osmanabad, Nagpur, Ahmed Nagar (INC sabotaging NCP) and to an extent in Shiradi, Mumbai NC.
Bottomline: Though the voteshare given to UPA is too high, some explaination can be found in bradley effect, that is why Mr. Ashok Chavan & Mr. Vilasrao Deshmukh want to go alone in assembly election and the NCP wants to go with SHS or MNS (reports of Mr. pawar calling Uddav in London & Mr. Jayant Patil meeting Mr. Raj Thackery)
UP:
Gallagher effect is missed by the media groups. They did the same mistake in Karnataka assembly elections, they are doing so now in the UP electoral trends.
Bottomline: Expect in Phase I & IV of UP polls (were BJP did extremely well across seats), in all other phases BJP has done well only in pockets depending on the candidates. For instance Phase II ( Ambedkar Nagar, Faizabad), Phase III (Kanpur, Balaun) Phase V (Anola, Philibit & to an extent in Moradabad). Usually BJP’s vote share is consistent across the state, but not so in this election.
Finally Mr. Mahesh Rangarajan has converted the voteshare of BSP:29%, Sp:23%, BJP+: 21% & INC: 18% into 28, 22, 17 & 13 seats. The difference is that INC has consistently got 15-18% votes across the state peaking at very few places, whereas BJP has seesawed between 30% (winning seats) & 15%(decimated seats). This leads to Gallagher effect and more seats to BJP.
Regards,
Arun Narendhranath
On Thu, May 14, 2009 at 4:04 PM, Arun Narendhranath wrote:
Two important points ignored by Psephologist
a) Most of the exit polls are converting state wise trends into seats. Expect Tamil Nadu none of the larger states are monolithic in their voting pattern. The classic example is converting higher voteshare of INC in Rayalseema region to seats across AP.
b) Gallagher effect is also missed by the media groups. They did the same mistake in Karnataka assembly elections, they are doing so now in the UP electoral trends.
For more info read about Gallagher Index @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallagher_Index
These are the two points you can use while attending TV debates on Exit Polls.
Regards,
Arun Narendhranath
Kumar,
Left had total 2.5% vote percentage in LS 2004. Is it possible to extrapolate this to seats? TRS had less vote share than BJP but got 5 seats where as BJP ended up with a naught. This vote percentage game is shit.
Humdinger,
I think the extrapolation itself is fraught with errors.
However, the Left parties atleast in AP are the only ones capable of transferring their vote to any one they align with.So, whoever gets their 2.5-3% gets it lock, stock and barrel.I am happy that this time their votes have gone against the UPA in AP.
Doesn’t bode well
Maya / UP drops NSA against Varun.
http://newsx.com/story/52777
So its curtains for the NSA drama, except for the Rs.10 Lakh compensation suit Varun has filed for harassment.
Would be hilarious and a slap on face of sickular mafia if Varun manages to extract some compensation.
If JJ picks up lot of seats, she can very well tie-up with Congi to pull the plug on DMK and become CM herself, in exchange for support at Center.
My bet says she’ll ask for TN CM chair. And will also ask one of her MPs to be appointed as Foreign Minister to deal with Lanka issue,
If JJ has to even consider BJP, they’ll have to promise strong action on Lankan issue, which will in turn earn her goodwill, and increase possibility of a AIADMK sweep in future assembly elections.
But strong action can also be offered by TF and Congi, in addition too immediate CM post for her
So BJP has nothing unique to offer for JJ, except for the track record in keeping their word, unlike Congi which dumped TRS and Telangana, when they didn’t need them
Advani meets BJP top brass
Making attempts to cobble up required strength for government formation, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate L.K. Advani on Thursday reportedly spoke to AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalitha.
http://www.asianage.com/presentation/leftnavigation/news/india/advani-meets-bjp-top-brass.aspx
My Gut feeling says,
BJP – 175
NDA – 215
Cong – < 120
Cong abandons single largest party norm
Uncertain about the shape of things to emerge after May 16 counting of votes for the Lok Sabha poll, the Congress wants the President not to necessarily go by the principle of inviting the largest party to form the Government and instead look into the “stability factor”, something that will be on the discretion of the Rashtrapati Bhavan.
http://www.politicsparty.com/india_verdict_2009.php
Rajnath-Amar meeting sets political circle abuzz
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/election2009/index.php?issueid=&id=42027&option=com_content&task=view§ionid=90&secid=0
Amar Singh should be effectively used for bowling out Cong + Hajdeep on Cash-for-votes, if he comes to BJP.
Getting SP into NDA is good strategy till it wont push ambitious Mayawati to congress!!
I knew something is cooking when anil ambani meets Advani. Also Namo has good relations with ambani.
Just before last elections Ambani met Sonia and COng came to power. Dont think they stand a chance but keeping fingers crossed.
I meant the day before results were to be announced.
Samajwadi’s joining with BJP is totally an option…they were ready to do it in 2007 as well, but Mayawati surprised them. I’m not sure Paswan is flexible though, but Guruji is…they should work on him first.
Its not only about hoping that BJP performs above expectations, but also for us to hope that projections by the exit polls that Congress is going to put up such a incredulous performance in TN and AP are ridiculous, making the Congress smaller in the new Lok Sabha and a less credible parliamentary party. If they can have a net loss of even 15-20 seats from last time, it will put them in a difficult position and possibly even inclined to sit aside.
The Mad Woman Theory of Politics (link)
The latest vir singhvi column. Gives a new meaning to the word ridiculous.
Actually, I think singhvi might have a point.
Time for sonia to get into the mad woman act now!*LOL*
Did you guys see on how Vir Sanghvi was prodding BJD guy Panda to admit that he is going to support BJP later. Too kiddish
OMG, consider this:
AK Antony likely to be compromise figure
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=Desperate+Congress,+BJP+woo+allies+ahead+of+vote+count&artid=UwPFxGXc2EM=&SectionID=AMqePYI/D30=&MainSectionID=AMqePYI/D30=&SEO=antony,+kerala,+prime,+minister&SectionName=r|6ubJhvSMue9wsQ1WPQJg==
Is there any possibility of a Hindu being PM of India any more ?
looks like based on the pre-result posturing – it is possible for Pratibha Patil to abandon the precedent set by Shankar Dayal Sharma…
…I suspect that both the NDA and the “Seculars” might both make a claim to form the government…
…and the Queen of Cooperatives might act against the BJP.
This will be the ultimate subversion of the verdict…
…let’s find out.
@galeo.. That is perhaps the most realistic possibility.
Left + congress will get invited first and they can get to persuade TDP to abstain and Jaya will join them. SOme sonia loyalist like Antony will be their PM candidate.
Inspite of batting at 80% strike rate if BJP still doesnt win, it needs to realize one thing – no point in being gentlemanly in Indian politics.. it needs to be a lot more aggressive.
telugodu5
>>Guys look at Sagarika Ghouse.According to their
poll 71 % were satisfied with Manmohan singh’s performance.
Sagreeka Grouse missed reporting a minor detail. Sample was confined to the IBN staff onlee.
General Mrinal Suman blasts Indian media here… our army has the forbearance of mother earth to put up with these sickularist media vermin.
http://sify.com/news/columns/fullstory.php?a=jfml9lfahga&title=Musharraf_and_our_national_shame&cid=13180904&?vsv=TopHP1
One of the most disgusting sights seen in recent times was media coverage of General Pervez Musharraf’s visit to India. A leading magazine had invited him as a distinguished speaker.
It was repugnant to see media personnel attempting to outdo each other in fawning over him. He was treated as a peace loving and moderate leader who is a well wisher of India. One TV personality went to the extent of eulogizing him as a beacon of peace for the sub-continent. Another correspondent had no hesitation in calling him as the most erudite Pakistani leader who is held in high esteem in India.
Not one media personality questioned him for initiating Kargil aggression, lest he be offended. No one cared to ask him about numerous Indian prisoners of war rotting in Pakistani jails. Nor was he asked to explain reasons for his failure to stop terrorist training camps and infiltration of jehadis into India. Worst, he was never castigated for the most barbaric and inhuman treatment meted out to Lt Saurabh Kalia and his patrol.
One wonders what thoughts must have passed through the minds of the parents of the late Lt Saurabh Kalia when they saw Indian media going overboard in lauding Musharraf as a sagacious leader and a man whom India can trust.
Lt Saurabh Kalia of 4 JAT Regiment was just 22 years old when he was captured by the Pakistani Army on 15 May 1999 along with five other Indian soldiers. Saurabh’s patrol was on the Indian side of Line of Control and was the first to detect Pak intrusions in the Kargil area. The patrol was kept in captivity for three weeks and their bodies were handed over to India on 9 June 1999. The state of their bodies bore testimony to the brutal torture which they had been subjected to.
The Pakistanis had indulged in dastardly acts of inflicting burn injuries on them with cigarettes, piercing their ears with hot rods, removing their eyes before puncturing them and breaking most of the bones and teeth. They even chopped off various limbs and private organs of the hapless Indian soldiers besides inflicting unimaginable physical and mental torture. After 22 days of torture, the brave soldiers were ultimately shot dead. A detailed post-mortem report is with the Indian Army.
=========
Despicable, wretched, ignominous… losing all expletives here.
Ever since the fourth phase, rajdeep has been building the case for narayanan model of 272. it is this which gives me confidence that these guys know bjp is slp and sla and now congress too wanting it means, congress also knows it.
Perceptive post from BRF:
Cons form minority govt with a new PM. Left will abstain. Left will in return force cons to break alliance with Mamta just before assembly election in WB. Left may also convince TDP to abstain. Cons in return will allow TDP to form govt in AP with left, TRS and even Praja Rajyam joining it.
With these deals done , they will go to AIADMK , which will have no choice but to join the UPA govt. In turn DMK govt falls and fresh elections happens in TN. This scenario is the exact variation of 2004 , when WB, AP and TN made possible for Cons to form government.
All cons losses is limited to AP state govt, which is really small price to pay. Left saves its face and gets WB as part of the deal. My question will be : Was this was already thought out ? My guess is yes; based on the way Left calibrated its departure from MMS govt.
Congress I (islami-isai) abondons first invite for single party norm.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/176360/Cong-abandons-single-largest-party-norm.html
Mr K. Yerrannaidu, summed up Mr Naidu’s mind when he said, “the TD will keep its option open on new alliances. Our intentions are common. We are against Congress.”
The internal survey showed the BJP winning 166 seats and the NDA emerging victorious in 218 constituencies. Contending that its survey was the most credible, he said the same agency had given the BJP 50 seats in the 2007 UP Assembly election whereas television channels had showed the party winning between 90 and 100 seats.
Prasad said the survey conducted by the BJP showed the Congress gaining only in Kerala, Punjab and Rajasthan and faring badly in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
chalo 24 more hrs to go. by this time 2moro, counting will hv started.
IN TN the polling % is 72.5 as per ET report compared to 60% in 2004. Also cities except Chennai voted above state avg. previously in 84 it voted 72% when both the elections held simultaneously and also after Indira’s death and MGR critically hill.
I am not sure is the emotional issue hit with the voters? Though people attribute for the payment of money to the voters though in the percentage is less.
Sud – thats more imaginative than perceptive
The problem with all such machinations is they repudiate the morality of elections. People vote in an election for a purpose. You cannot cut deals that negate that purpose any which way that pleases you without having to pay a future political price. We saw that in Karnataka we saw that in Bihar, we will now see it in Jharkhand and perhaps Goa and Assam. There in lies the foolishness of such a formulation.
Ajay,
JJ is not in desperation to get the CM chair. A courtesy look at her party manifesto which talks lot about national issue. She want National role like Maya and this is the best time she can achieve that. Anyway she wants to be one step above karunanidhi and by becoming CM once again is not the only way.
AK Antony? Oh my oh my I need to get hawan after hawan done until the ballot boxes open that such a calamity does not befall India.
Although here is a thought on that…why would the Left agree to a Prime Minister from a Left-dominated state like Kerala or West Bengal…Antony or Pranab Mukherjee…wouldn’t it be a threat?
janpar,
They can also explain support is only because it’s Benagali manoos or kerla manoos.
Harkishen Singh Surjeet will rise from his grave to participate in the spicy post-poll mashups, something tells me….
Haha Aru, only party I think will ever say that is Shiv Sena! Thats like suggesting Lalu will get on board to make fellow Bihari Nitish Kumar PM or MSY supporting his bhen Mayawati.
As per NDTV exit poll
UPA – 216
4th front -30
left – 35
In 2004 it is left or SP and in 2009 it is left + SP.
Is that going to be that simple?
@Janpar … I don’t think the left would be against Pranab-da being the PM … It is rajmata who will not allow Pranab-da to be PM. You see he has one thing that Antony sahab may not have .. a spine
“Maverick idea: PM Nitish if BJP, Third Front agree
FTA:
With political parties and leaders feverishly working out permutations after what seems to be an election too close to call, there is
a new story doing the rounds which sees Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar as an unlikely “consensus” candidate for the prime minister’s job.
The script that is being drawn up — though it is yet to find any sort of formal articulation anywhere — is that while some of the third front players are determined to push for a government supported by Congress, the numbers may not work out. The reality check delivered by Telangana Rashtriya Samiti going over to the NDA has had a sobering effect, with JD(S) also on the “doubtful” list.
One of the comments posted in response:
Siva Reddy,Guntur,says:“Maverick Idea” is a really Wierd Headline to this article. Does the author of this article think that Nitish Kumar is the least fit candidate among those already in fray? Or is it because Nitish Kumar is a Bihari so it makes the idea about him being India’s PM.. a Maverick One??
Yoss, Sud
Kerala – Commie/Congi alliance at the center has not made it possible for others to get in.
At the risk of sounding cynical, legacy at least in some places seem to validate Sud’s cynicism.
ghatotkacha, yes, you are quite right…Pranab-dada is destined to never be the favorite.
Anyhow, the Psec’s are out in full force right now, basically setting the mood that the possibility of anything besides a Congress-led coalition is out of the question at this point. I do not think I’ve read an article yet that even speculates about any other possibility. I myself am worried that the anti-Congressi fascism movement that brand about regionalism is slowly dying and those leaders will drink the poision to get the treasure. No ideals at all…
Facts doctoring prannoy roy repeatedly is using the phrase “advani humiliated”.
Someone should tell him that does he consider “badkaa” hosting we the people is humiliation for him.
That is the way to make these “too clever by half” idiots clam up.
NR
You mentioned about Church asking Kanyakumari xians to vote DMK (Express Buzz?)
Can you show me the link.
In Karnataka, Catholic Church openly asked xians to vote Congress too.
Mangalore is a battle ground seat ~25% xian/muslim population. As a segment Billavas make the most in number. Janardhan Poojary, congress candidate is a Billava.
Kuttil (BJP) candidate is an RSS man. There has been heavy mobilisation.
There is no guarantee that church’s stupidity will work as Hindus here are savvy.
In KK, can church’s call, mobilise Hindus to consolidate even more behind BJP?
ZOOMINDIANMEDIA,
I will add one more thing, is DR.Roy humiliated because one of his ex colleague (Padma sree Sardesai) started his own channel and getting better TRP than NDTV.
Thanks,
i9indian.
ZIM,
Just like how in kerala many dumbos in higher caste have fallen for christian propaganda that most christians are namboodaris and nairs and hence dont mind electoral alliance or marriages, good number of hindu nadars have many married to christian nadars and hence dont mind going along with them.
any way the link is here.
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=DMK+may+have+the+last+laugh+in+Kumari&artid=AfeQlLPxEbU=&SectionID=vBlkz7JCFvA=&MainSectionID=fyV9T2jIa4A=&SectionName=EL7znOtxBM3qzgMyXZKtxw==&SEO=
it is time hindu leaders start giving a call.
well surprised if Con getting 29 seats in AP,AND DOING WELL EVEN IN mAHARASTHTRA and NDTV giving them just 166 seat.
well at this rate Congi alone can get 272.
AND SO today our Media will be “requesting” Lollipop Rahul baba to take charge of the country.
offcourse he will decline and will make MMS to sworn as PM.
aFTER THAT we will have another round of “SACRIFICE” of Lollipop Rahul in MEDIA
Times Now is trpoting that Naveen has called up Sonia ande he might go with INC.
Dont worry we will have ManMohan Singh as PM and
LEFT:DEFENCE
MAMATA:HOME
LALOO:AGRICULTURE
NITISH:RAILWAY
PASWAN:TRANSPORT
MULAYAM:INDUSTRY
MAYA: TELECOM
JAYA:FINANCE
KARUNANIDHI:COMMERCE
PAWAR:FOREIGN
NAVEEN:INFORMATION
Chandra Babu: Without Portfolio
prashanth- just for fun joining you.
make naveen -steeland mines
left- foreign
Which is why the BJP’s stand this week is so important. They want President Patil to invite the single largest pre-poll formation first.
“The president must call the single largest poll formation and the single largest party,” said BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad in a press conference.
Not wanting to be out maneouvered by the BJP’s stand, the Congress is focusing on getting letters of support, rather than wait and see who the President invites first.
ndtv
it is now clear that media and congress seem to know that bjp, nda will be slp and sla.
lets see in less than 24 hrs
TDP announced the results of their exit polls in AP.
Assembly:
Grand Alliance – 179; INC-57; PRP-21;BJP-3;MIM-4; Lok Satta-1;Independents -4; in 25 seats there is a deadlock and results are uncertain.
Lok Sabha:
TDP+TRS – 30;INC-9;PRP-2;MIM-1
In the press release, TDP said their methodology has been the most scientific and had the largest sample.They polled roughly 2000 voters from each MLA segment – a total of around 6 lakh voters across AP on the day of polling.TDP further stated that the national media networks sample was less than 1% of TDP sample.
Lets hope results are closer to TDP’s exit poll
Kumar, I too hope so. If Congis are down to 10 in AP Loksabha tally then it is virtually impossible to form any government for them. If Congis are talking to AIADMK, then BJP should pull up SP and LJP. No relenting starting tomorrow. It is quite tense.
In assembly 57 for INC is too low. I agree with PRP score though. It won’t cross 25. My crude guess says 25 for PRP, around 100 for INC and Grand alliance just scraping through the magic mark.
BJP should seriously consider the possibility of splitting SP in UP.
Amar and Azam Khan is not a done deal yet. SP is said to be losing Muslim votebank, thanks to the Kalyan Singh fiasco. Mulayam will consider the possibility if BJP and SP will fight the next elections together. BJP should even consider opening talks directly with SP’s Muslim leaders
SP becomes a minor partner in UP, like RLD.
Maybe NDA can even consider making Amar Singh the I&B minister. With his social networking skills, he’ll completely undercut Slurdesai and Burkha Dutt. You need a dirty guy to do a dirty job, and Amar excels in handling such matters.
SP will be largest party of fourth front, and the other two will be happy if their “leaders” manage to retain their seats this time around. So fourth front is a dead end.
Congi has screwed SP in all available holes. And SP’s star is diminishing. If they are not part of the government this time around, they’ll probably vanish within a decade.
SP is isolated. It makes lot of sense for SP to extend support to NDA. Maybe Azam Khan or another couple of Muslim leaders can be made Cabinet Minister to placate their feelings.
SP’s assest is wheeler dealer Amar. He can prove valuable post May-16th.
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