With Maharashtra assembly election results trending towards a Cong-NCP lead over Shiv-Sena BJP by a margin of around 30 seats it is safe to say that the BJP is headed for the dog-house in Maharashtra.
Barring any post poll horse trading which seems quite unlikely to do much to its status even if the situation were to manifest, the ramifications of the dismal electoral outcome are bound to have a ripple effect in the national party.
That some in the BJP were projecting Nitin Gadkari as a contender for the top BJP job irrespective of the outcome in Maharashtra is a reflection on the bankruptcy of imagination in the party and also a reflection of the grave inertia within the party to think boldy to embrace change.
More analysis and rationalizations will follow on this debacle once the final electoral outcome is clear. Much will be said of the Raj Thackeray factor and every other conspiratorial angle will be analyzed threadbare.
The bottomline however, as Offstumped had said before, is that the BJP is trapped in its rhetoric and legacy of the past while its Delhi based non-leaders are trapped in a Semi-finals mindset.
In the resulting impasse all decision making is reduced factional intrigue and myopic compromises stripping the Party of what little sheen was left of its claim to be the Party with a difference.
Irrespective of whether Narendra Modi is called upon to embrace the leadership of the BJP now or two years from now, we are staring at the end of the road for the BJP to emerge as a national alternative to the Congress.
This is not to say the BJP will not be a viable player in some states where it continues to fill the non-Congress political space.
However barring unprecedented acts of nature and god it is hard to see the BJP breaking new ground to sustain a bipolar polity at the National level.
It would take extradordinary leadership to make a clean break from the past and to chart a new course for the BJP, leadership that is nowhere on the horizon.
The defining faultlines of future electoral politics are decisively drifting towards socio-economic issues. Unless the Center Right stitches new coalitions around socio-economic interests to challenge the Congress’ maai-baap politics we are in for a Congress monopoly for at least the next two election cycles.
Filed under: Assembly Polls 2009, DesiPundit, India Elections 2009, Live Events, Maharashtra Polls 2009, Offstumped Community, Shveta Chhatra
True, it is not Congress that is winning, it is BJP that is losing. Congress is proving to be lesser of the two evils at this time when BJP has no leadership. And it would require a extraordinary leadership which I don’t see coming from anyone in the party at the moment.
Don’t loose heart. Its MNS in Maha election much like the two film stars in Andhra, TN that carried the day for Congress.
I am a great supporter of your attempt to bring about change within the BJP
But Nitin Gadkari is a great choice of President. why do you criticize him?
The elections results are simply perfect! I mean look at Maharashtra, Congress-NCP are getting exactly 140+ & BJP-SS are stuck just at century while MNS has got about 14-15
In Haryana, it is not a clean sweep for Congress, but just about managing to scrape through while INLD has performed a lot better than expected.
Such wonderfully scripted results … everyone should be happy with this now
@Karan – I have not criticized him I have questioned crowning him without a contest and that too claiming to do so irrespective of outcome in Maharashtra. He has a good resume as an administrator but if he could not ensure a BJP win in 2 election cycles how does it make him a sound political organizer ?
Jharkhand election is very important now as well as Bihar. And then UP.
Unless BJP revives in UP, it will not cross 170 seats at the center.
Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi has just reacted to the election results as an official spokesperson of the BJP on Headlines Today… Here’s the transcript;
————————————————
The BJP on Thursday said electronic voting machines were electronic victory machines for the Congress as the key constituent of the UPA in the Centre raced ahead in Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh where elections were held on October 13.
Reacting to the Congress onslaught, BJP vice-president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said the EVMs were ensuring a Congress victory. “It is a sponsored victory for the Congress,” he said.
Well within an hour of counting, the Congress was in a commanding position in Maharashtra with its ally the NCP. Earlier in the Lok Sabha polls, several parties had also alleged that
EVMs could be rigged.
————————————————-
Grapes are sour? Really BJP, why do you have to raise that issue after the elections & after you have lost fair n square
Just a point … BJP has now moved beyond SS… BJP=50 & SS=48! … While MNS = 17
The race now for BJP-SS is wether they can cross the double figures & hit a 100! … Go BJP go!!!
Its a repeat of LS09.INC won TN,AP & MH due to a split in the opposition.All 3 spoilers hv been supported by the INC.The same phenomenon will occur in Jharkhand as well.
Yoss,
Agree that the BJP has to reinvent itself & reach out to the voters.But what you are suggesting is too radical & it’ll move the BJP closer to the centre to an almost similar plank as the INC.Then the extreme-Right will certainly break away.
The BJP’s future direction will be(should be) decided by the RSS.Probably 90% of the BJP voters & workers identify the BJP as a branch of the RSS.Many of them would desert the party immediately if it moves away from the Sangh’s ideology or tries to dissociate itself from the RSS.I certainly would as my loyalty is to the RSS.
Shiv Sena has managed to get about 40+ seats & I think it will eventually get a tally lower than BJP, which proves that Uddhav was living in a fantasy land all along. BJP & SS are competing with each other for getting lesser seats … They might not even hit the 90 mark forget crossing double figures!
Will Uddhav Thackrey survive this? I doubt that … Any bets on Raj Thackrey taking over the mantle of Shiv-Sena in the next 2 years? … Narendra Modi & Nitin Gadkari might actually assist Raj in his ambitions
@ Tanmay
thats the problem wid guys like you… u are loyal to a particular party or a particular organisation… but not loyal to the country… but indian citizens have proved that they are not going to be fooled with stupid ideologies any more..
better the opposition starts thinking nationally and globally from now on…
Funnily this whole rot set in during Nov-Dec last year when BJP managed to snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory in the Delhi assembly elections & lost Rajasthan because of internal differences. If the BJP leadership had managed to set house in order in these 2 states then it would have been a clean sweep in that set of assembly elections which would have set the tone for LS elections.
I do not want to again dissect the silly mistakes that BJP as a party commited in the general elections to again snatch a defeat, suffice it to say that they did not manage the political alliances properly & got their arithmatic all wrong
Now, today again there are lessons to be learnt, this could easily have been a 2-1 result in favour of the BJP had they only managed to run an effective campaign in Maharashtra highlighting the non-performance of the DF govt than making it a war of the Thackreys … and of course if they had had an alliance with INLD.
What a shame, looks like BJP is not a party geared for electoral plotics anymore
Congress has won and it’s tactics succeeded in Mumbai and Thane. The question is can they put the genie back in the bottle ?
It’s not the mistake of the BJP if some of the voters of Maharashtra want another Congress Government.
Nandan,
What kind of stupid statement is that?This is a discusion about the future of a political party.Don’t post ridiculous comments.
@ Tanmay
“my loyalty is to the RSS”
nothing can be more ridiculous than this comment.. and your response is so typical chaddi wala… all criticism sounds “stupid” and “ridiculous” to you… for you the future of a party is more important than the future of your country isnt it.. shame on you..
Folks,
can anyone explain how Congress won in Vidharba and Marathwada – the epicentre of farmer suicides. Also, these were Munde’s strongholds.
MNS wasnt a factor in these regions. Shouldnt people have enough anger to vote Congress out atleast in these regions.
This is where EVM fraud needs to be looked into. Even Congress mouthpiece CNNIBN was on record describing the anger and anti-incumbency prevelant in these parts.
MPanj – Read Sheela Bhatt’s piece – entitlements from Congres and lack of credible alternatives from BJP/SS
@Nandan,
I have seen plenty of pretentious, arrogant, self-righteous comments, but yours take the cake.
>the future of a party is more important than the >future of your country
Oh dear! Who gave you the right to arrogate yourself to deciding the patriotism or otherwise of others? What, by the way, is the future of the country and how does it suffer from having a BJP/RSS in it? And finally, since when did discussing the future of a party suddenly become a question of balancing it against the interests of the country?
Yoss,
I agree with you. The BJP has delayed organisational polls sufficiently long. It is in its best interest to hold organisational polls right away. However, I am not sure if that will do the trick. It is no exaggeration to say that the BJP today is roughly in the same situation it was in 1989 – present, even strong, in a few limited areas in central India, but woefully weak in other areas.
The problem I can see with what you are suggesting is that I cannot what alternatives to entitlements will attract the voters. The greater problem is that no matter how capable the administration, there are a large number of people for whom entitlements have become a way of life. How do you suggest breaking them away from said entitlements and what credible alternatives do you suggest? The Congress may be robbing Peter to pay Paul, but, as Bernard Shaw said, governments which rob Peter to pay Paul can generally rely on the support of Paul and there are plenty of Pauls in the country. Us middle class voters may be disgusted with what the Congress is doing, but most middle class people don’t vote anyway, which is why the Congress can afford to ignore them. Policy-wise, can you suggest alternatives to entitlements and how they can be implemented? An example would be greatly appreciated.
Regards,
Maidros
Maidros – great question will respond in detail in next Post.
Monoply of Congress is a great danger to the country. Congress is simply indulging in Vote Bank Politics which undermines the Majority Hindu community.
Why are we surprised by these results? Why should we even talk of alternative entitlements? It is a futile arguement. Swapan da, yossarian & everybody else who profess to be the intelligentsia of the right wing nationalistic space in Indian socio-politic reality are forgetting some basic simple truths of Indian polity. The truth is that India as a nation has had a history of passive counteraction to any force of governance and administration throughout, and to expect any divergence from that ingrained view is expecting a great deal of industriousness from a predominantly docile race of people.
If BJP or alternative political forces gained power for close to a decade between 1996 & 2004, then they must consider themselves as lucky rather than considering themselves as heir-apparents to an Indian legacy. The truth is that Congress in it’s DNA has the rightful overlordship of India as a nation, which is more true with the Nehru-Gnadhi family than anybody else, and BJP or NDA or the more socialistic Janata party experiences were mere blips in the otherwise blemishless Indian political horoscope.
The fact that Vajpayee in combination with Advani & NDA allies was able to rule India as a nation for 6 odd years was a minor abberation in it’s history rather than a new awakening. Congress will continue to rule in its myriad formations despite of having a leader who has no historic links with India whatsoever. This is the undeniable truth and the quicker one accepts it, the better.
There is no point in decrying the BJP under L.K Advani or anybody else for we must start accepting the reality and be glad that at least we have created an opposition pole in the national ethos of India.
Praveen,
food for thought – how does a culturally conservative nation vote politically liberal.
But NDA, NaMo, Yediurappa, Mayawati, Laloo, etc. suggests Congress can be countered.
But Congress occupies the high ground and forces of Hindutva are attacking from the bottom of the hill.
It will take a great deal of imagination and courage to win – NaMo has shown the way. Hopefully others can follow.
p.s. If MNS can usurp and tailor NaMo’s message why cant BJP do the same in every other state, instead of falling for the psec media spin – “Modi unacceptable outside Gujarat”.
MPanj – becoz MNS was not in the race to win but in the race to be the biggest Party pooper so unless that is the status you want the Principal Opposition party to aspire for no it makes no sense for BJP to learn from MNS.
@maidros
you have every right to express ur opinion, just as i have mine.. no need to get personal.. we are not judging each others quality of judment or verdict here..
btw you have read my comment the wrong way.. i said a country is more imp than a party and not the other way round.. and it was in the context of what tanmay said… remember his famous comments?? “my loyalty is towards rss”
Maidros and Yoss,
It will be tough as an opposition to get the message. but the message will be through if they can repeatedly take it to the voters for five years without being tired by the routine and not worrying about the final outcome. even a lie told 100 times becomes truth in the eyes of public. If you try to say this nce in an election time, that too as a complaint nothing will work. the message needs to be taken in an aspirationally enticing way every now and then, probably once in every month, probably at every oppurtunity this misfit causes in the local place.
2. That such local aspirations willbe met and poor will be made to come out of their poor state has to be shown and proved to people by hte ruling BJP govts in other states. Without that people will not beleive. Gujarat alone wont help as then that will be made to think as because of Modi, but across all states were bjp is in power this needs to be achieved.
Thus it needs to be a collective effort, involving karyakartha who take the message every now and then, leaders in govt, who achieve this, and leaders in party hierachy who train/inform the karyakartha on how and what message is taken to the people frequently and monitor their morale and implementation.
There is no two ways, congress abuse of power with money and channels has to be met with only hard back breaking work without getting tired at it.
@NR,
What is the message that a BJP campaigner is supposed to take to the people? Imagine yourself to be a BJP kayrakarta and think. The BJP itself was showing itself more than keen to join/sign Nuclear Agreements, both with the US and others, but opposes it when it is in opposition.
The BJP purports to support Uniform Civil Code, scrapping the special status of Kashmir, etc when in opposition, but does nothing when it is in power. In fact, it was happy to dump everything that made it different just to come to understandings with `allies’.
The BJP claims to be a robust opponent of terrorism, yet did nothing at all when Parliament itself was attacked. Sure they massed troops on the border, but showed themselves totally incapable of any action.
The most dangerous trend I have seen in the BJP is that it makes opportunistic allies in order to come to power. Right from 1990, until now, the BJP never contested elections in Haryana on its own (2004 elections don’t count because it was staying with Chauthala until the elections). It was piggy-backing on Chauthala, Bansi Lal, and others, opportunistically making and breaking alliances. Where was principle in all this? In 1999, it made an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu, and by 2004, he had finished off the party so much that from the 18% vote it got in 1998, it is down to less than 3% today. In Assam, everyday it makes and breaks alliances with the AGP (twice back and forth now). Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik deserted the party after appropriating its vote bank in Bengal and Orissa respectively. I will not be surprised if Nitish Kumar dumps the BJP in the next elections in Bihar. In UP, the alliances with BSP, surreptitious exchanges with SP, and Rajnath’s indecent haste to destroy Kalyan Singh did the BJP in. In Tamil Nadu, it is desperately trying to hitch itself with the AIADMK/DMK for the elections, with no real interest in building its own base. Parties don’t come to power just because the people look at them as the least hopeless option of the lot, certainly not in areas where the BJP’s own presence, for historical reasons, was marginal. You need to inspire people to actually have faith in you, because you can offer a more intense future.
Today, we are seeing the effect of those alliances. Almost all of its members simply left because they have no voice in the party, they have to campaign for people whom until they other day they were opposing, and for whom they have no sympathy. Finally, it was clear that they would be eternally reduced to campaigning for the people they did not really support, since the BJP, having conceded primacy to others, and accepted its own marginal role, had no particular interest in solving the problems of its own adherents.
The point is not that alliances are wrong. But if the alliances go against the core principles of the party, then there is something wrong with them. And the BJP, in its indecent haste to come to power, has abandoned all its principles. The average BJP voter is usually much more educated and more aware than the average Congress voter, and does not tolerate betrayals lightly. Is it any wonder that the BJP, except in its strongholds, has all but vanished?
http://vinodksharma.blogspot.com/#
a perspective worth reading
Seeing the result of recent poll, Even after keeping mind on BJP’s current status, I become sure that one Pro-BJP television channel is must to counter the influence of it on middle class society who are the mainly opinion maker. Congress led Government’s worst performance got covered by vote share of the MNS whom national media has given excessive coverage which indirectly helped to split the opposition vote. On the other hand, Haryana’s Bisai (HJC) did not get any coverage. Media did not want to give him air time since it will cut congress vote. One counter argument might be Haryana is not important state compare to Maharastra.
@mpanj …
India is, was & always will be a liberal nation! It’s a Victorian myth that India & Indians are conservative. Since the time of Vedas India has been a culturally & politically a very liberal society (I need not point to Kajuraho, Kamasutra etc etc). It was only with the advent of Mughals that a certain level of conservatism crept into Indian psche. This process was taken forward by the British, who incidentally are the most conservative people on earth with all the pretentions of self-righteousness & progressivism.
If one wants to see the real liberal India one should go to the villages where ancient India still exists. Please do not misconstrue our customs & traditions that we follow to be the adherents of conservative tenets in a stereotypical way. Instead look at womens lib in rural India through matriarchal families, or sexual liberation through polygamous societies of Indian villages (on both sides of the sexual divide, mind you), or the pagan worship of the feminine form, or simply go through the folk-lore of rural India and you will understand the true meaning of liberty that Hinduism has alwayas propogated since time immemorial.
The conservative outlook that we flaunt in urban India is nothing but middle-class morality of modern cities which still have a hangover of the British raj.
Uddhav Thackrey has been finally shown his place, now at least good sense should prevail in the Sena thinktank & Uddhav should be relegated to some non-political work. Uddhav seems to be hell bent on destroying Balasaheb’s legacy by putting Shiv Sena on a self destruct mode since the last 5-6 years. In 2004 assembly elections, Uddhav scuttled many of Raj Thackrey followers candidacy and hurt the winning chances of SS-BJP alliance. Even this time he has played spoilsport for the SS in many seats; just take the example of Mahim seat were Sada Sarwankar was denied a ticket for no fathomable reason at all.
It was only last year, that both Chagan Bhujbal & Narayan Rane wanted to return back to the Shiv Sena; they had both sent feelers to Matoshree through a BJP leader; but Uddhav was against it and he created stumbling blocks for their entry. Also well known is the fact of Raj Thackrey offering a truce (& possibly seat adjustments in the elections) to Shiv Sena ledership through Manohar Joshi, which was again rejected out of hand by Uddhav Thackrey. Even after the assembly elections when every leader worth his salt in the BJP-SS alliance (including Munde & Gadkari) was worried about them being unable to cross the 110 mark, the junior Thackrey was professing his faith getting to the magic number of 145!
All his actions only suggest that Mr. Uddhav Thackrey is a proverbial “alice in blunderland”. The sooner Raj Thackrey takes over Shiv Sena the better it would be for the saffron alliance.
Offstumped:
I’m sorry if I came across as suggesting that BJP should adopt MNS’ parochial agenda.
That can and never work.
My point was that MNS married its parochial agenda to NaMo’s results oriented governance.
Most analysts have missed this nuance.
If MNS was peddling us-against-them alone they would not have succeeded.
People have seen that movie before and know how it ends.
But Raj T. (in almost every speech) reminded his audience that if NaMo could do it in Gujarat why cant M’rastra.
His punchline: “NaMo could do it because all power was concentrated in his hands – deal me the same hand and see how I work the magic”
That is the piece BJP should have been able to emulate, promote and present as a viable alternative in these elections.
That Raj T. can do it with greater credibilty despite having a zero record is a tragedy.
One other point.
Though MNS has won 13 seats – from the little feedback I have received they have stood second in atleast 20-30 additional seats.
Another story suggested that MNS hurt BJP/SS in 47 seats.
The good news (if you can call it that) is this:
M’rastra has 136 urban seats. As SS gets decimated (organizationally) in the next 12-18 months and MNS picks up the pieces, watch for Congress/NCP losing ground (to MNS) as well.
(Even in this elections MNS cost NCP/Congress 2-3 seats).
This is one genie Congress wont be able to put back in the bottle.
The first big indicator will be the BMC elections (I think within the next 2 years).
Despite what Kumar Ketkar has been saying – MNS will graduate from a spoiler role. Primarily because they will not need to build an organization from scratch – they have a readymade setup already in place – Shiv Sena.
Just change the driver and put pedal to the metal.
@maidros:
on alliances: There is another dimension that I think Shourieji has pointed out.
ALliances help BJP’s central leadership prevent any internal state leader from emerging.
Kalyan Singh didnt exactly help his cause but he was neutralized when he became a threat to LKA and others.
That NaMo has survived and thrived is a surprise. Partly because he came out of nowhere.
If a BJP leader emerges in UP and becomes a pan-UP phenom like Mayawati – do you think a single leader in the BJP will stand a chance of ever making it to the PM chair.
But I do agree – alliances only make sense where the core ideology of the party is respected and embraced.
p.s Sushil Modi in Bihar is the perfect example of how RNS has tried to counter a strong state level leader who could threaten him for the leadership of the BJP in the hindi heartland.
mpanj,
on kalyan singh you have got it wrong. kalyan singh and govindacharya you have to put blame on the other pillar of bjp.
maidros,
thats precisely what bjp must learn. it must have a cleaan purge and shed the past and make a new begginning. it must also derive a cohereent policy that will help it take decisions with consistency and stick to it. this be it on alliances, infra projects, or whatever. untill that happens, the confidence will not be restored.
Now that old BJP is all but gone, let Vaajpayee, the true architect of BJP’s decimation ( by grossly watering down BJP’s core principles in order to enjoy his fortuitous prime ministeship) rest and enjoy his retirement. Poor Advani: he subsumed his political philosophy and himself in “adarneey Vajpayeeji”, and lost his identity. These two gentlemen betrayed BJP’s core supporters. Consequences had to follow. Rajnath Singh, a village-level politician, delivered the coup de grace.As for the prospective ‘new’ BJP, the lesson to follow is clear. Be honest and committed to what you tell your own real supporters.
[...] BJP in its current avatar has lost all moral [...]
[...] BJP in its current avatar has lost all moral [...]
Offstumped,
Your caption says ‘Center-Right Indian Politics..’. But apparently you are a supporter of BJP, an out-n’-out religious party. Why?
Are you inclined towards Conservatism? In America and Europe religious fundamentalists live mostly on the fringes of Right-wing Conservatism. But BJP is not, even by the most far-fetched imagination, a conservative party like the Tories or Republicans or Tories. It is, protestations notwithstanding, a purely religious fundamentalist party, all other manifest characteristics of the party being merely incidental.
I too believe there is a need for a right-wing political party in India to counter Congress. But how can you be an enligtened believer in Right-wing Conservatism and be a supporter of a fundamentalist religious party like BJP at the same time. Isn’t there a contradiction..?
And, what is your view on the quasi-military training imparted to the uniformed cadres of RSS in its Shakhas… Don’t you think it is what fundementlists like Taliban, Nazis, Fascists would be inclined to do, or have always done wherever they held sway?
Or in India, do we have to chart a different path, with religious fundamentalism as the core of Conservatism?
@Mats,
You watch too much of MSM , parroting their views about BJP and RSS.
Please read about BJP and RSS objectively and then post your comments.
TIA
I do not trust MSM on BJP. Their attitude towards BJP is rather benevolent, at best ambivalent. They go along with the pretension that BJP and RSS are different entities.
I don’t need MSM to understand RSS/ BJP. I see these RSS guys, mostly old-timers and then some young converts, doing their quasi-military stuff in an open space near where I live. It looks anachronistic, and pathetic. MSM is the last place I would go to understand BJP/ RSS. I would rather go to the numerous blogs and sites run by RSS and its outgrowths and supportive individuals imbued with its extremism. These blogs (once thriving, now declining) are full of vicious sectarian writings. The paranoia, hate-mongering and propagandizing are no different from, sometimes even worse than, that of bigots of other religions. Paranoia, inferiority complex, and atavistic longings are the hallmark of these BJP/ RSS inspired blogs and sites.
It is from these I learn about BJP/ RSS. They are purely a sectarian religious movement. I also see propagandizing about the RSS/ BJP’s nod to charity. Charity is the last haven of the paranoid bigot who crave recognition (its political equivalent is ‘efficiency’ as in ‘making trains run on time’).
My question to Offstumped was this. If he is inclined towards Conservatism, why would he support a religious sectarian party like BJP? He seems to be a serious supporter of the outfits.
@Mats
Wherever you go and whatever you feel, the ground reality is but very different. Today even a 4 year old kid knows that Islam means terrorism and irrespective of all the white wash Christianity in India just means fraudulent conversion and destruction of native culture and tradition. I only see sound logic and reason in the lines of our Dharma and never saw a single article on this blog that advocated violence. Whats your definition or idea of conservatism by the way ?. For most Indians, left, right, secular, conservative etc are just fancy words one must know to talk about society and politics. And what is anachronistic or atavistic or sectarian about about people organizing against very organized semetic religions which mix God and politics. And talking about inferiority complex , its just the privilege of prominent minorities of India, they leave nothing for their other compatriots. Go try giving your sermon on the other side of the wall.
Quick responses to Nandan and Mats:
Hey @Nandan,
All that @Tanmay said was that given the choice between BJP and RSS, he would stick with RSS. But you decided to bring in a new dimension of loyalty to country! Many would argue that loyalty to country or RSS are probably the same thing.
And @Mats:
Your adjectives and invectives indicate that you are most probably a commie. What are you doing here on INI? And to respond to your comment on RSS and its activities, I would strongly suggest you first attend a few of them. You will realize that the last thing on RSS’s mind is to emulate the Nazis of fascists. People like you frequently make the incorrect assumption that the Hindu right is similar in mindset or thinking as the Islamic or Christian right. Not true. Even the most fanatical Hindu will most probably be more liberal than a moderate Islamist or Christian.
I see Hindus more like the new Jews, and what the RSS is doing is ensuring that Hindus at least (even if feebly) are able to resist when faced with a jehadist/crusader. You, of course, will most probably be cheering the jehadi side when that happens.