Announcing a Live Event to go over the Assembly Election Results on 6th March 2012 offstumped.in/live/2012/03/u… @centerofright @prasannavishy—
Offstumped (@offstumped) March 02, 2012
Now playing on Offstumped.in/live a podcast conversation with @dubash on the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections 2012—
Offstumped (@offstumped) January 23, 2012
A podcast conversation with @dubash of phalaka.com where we talk about the upcoming 7 phase assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh during the months of February and March. In this conversation we go over the history of politics in Uttar Pradesh, the emergence of Mandal era leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav followed by the lost decade that saw Kalyan Singh and Mayawati at its helm. We also review the 2007 elections and the comeback by Congress in the 2009 lok sabha polls. We also review the opinion polls, the emergence of Uma Bharati on the UP poll scene, the impact of Baba Ramdev and Rahul Gandhi’s desperation over the Muslim sub-quota issue. Finally we wrap up with a view on Mayawati’s performance and how this election may end up being Mayawati’s after all.
Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Offstumped Podcasts, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012
Elections in India are those watershed moments when we come face to face with the realities of India’s politics vis-à-vis the utopian world that most intellectual political pundits of India live in. Elections in the Hindi-heartland have always been mired in caste calculations, with Uttar Pradesh being the leader of the pack in caste politics. No matter how much one wishes to see “real” issues to come to the fore, UP’s Bihar moment is quite far off in the distant future. UP elections are a classic case of cynical identity politics that will be decided purely on the basis of caste, religion and ethnicity.
Here am trying to present my case for UP polls wholly based on punditry and completely foregoing psephology. This is a broad picture of UP elections as on 24-01-2012, based on the various ethnic voting blocks in the state. Since the campaigning is yet to gain full steam, quite a large chunk of voters, I believe, are still undecided about their preference and therefore a clearer picture would emerge in the next few weeks. Since UP is a large non-monolithic state with many sub-regions having unique socio-political dynamics of their own, it is classically wrong to come up with a pan-UP electoral picture… yet I believe this is the right methodology to begin with. Going forward we can fine-tune by adapting a similar caste-religion based model to each of the region. As for a more detailed micro-analysis based on each constituency, am looking forward to the promised review by Offstumped (in his podcast).
Blocks Actual % % Voting % Weight-age BJP BSP SP INC Others Undecided
Muslims 17 70.00% 23 1.25 4 8.25 5.5 2.75 1.25
SC 21 40.00% 16 1.5 11.5 0.5 1.5 0 1
Upper Castes 20 65.00% 25 8.25 4.25 1.25 3 1.75 6.5
Brahmins 10
Thakurs 6.5
Kayasths 1
Vaishyas 2
Others 0.5
OBC 40 45.00% 35 7 3.5 9.5 3.25 1.25 10.5
Yadavs 9
Kurmis 8
Lodhs 6
Other OBCs 17
Others 2 30.00% 1 0 0.25 0.25 0.25 0 0.25
Total 18 23.5 19.8 13.5 5.75 19.5
Seat prjctns 59 110 90 30 20 95
Am not sure if that text parsing has come out correct… please check out the following URL for a clearer picture
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/5522/uppolls24012012.jpg
Points to ponder on my predictions
• As of now, typically around 20% of the voters should fall in the “undecided” category
• The Muslim vote is going to see a 4-way split, but the SP should maintain its primacy
• Overwhelming majority of the undecided voters belong to OBCs & Upper caste Hindus
• Muslim (70%) and upper caste Hindu (65%) vote percentages are the highest amongst all blocks, so they have a higher weightage than the numerically stronger Dalit vote – derived from the last 3 polls, but higher upper caste voting predicted this time.
• Biggest worry for Mayawati has to be the Dalit voter fatigue (as also seen in 2009), since most Dalit voters do not actually turn out to vote.
• Despite Mayawati trying her best to come up with a seemingly unstoppable Dalit-Muslim combo, there seems to be no significant improvement in BSPs Muslim mind-share
• Although the BSP is leading as of now, there is very little that they can improve from here because they cannot hope to garner any significant support from the “undecided” chunk of voters
• Unlike most opinion polls I believe the gap between SP & BJP is not significant (at least as of now)
• The Congress party seems to be under-performing as of now, since they have managed to alienate most sections of UP voters by some bizarre pronouncements
• The upper castes are returning back to the BJP in big numbers (again as seen in 2009), but a large chunk of Brahmin and Rajput voters have not yet made up their minds – logically, this is where the Congress party should be concentrating but they are doing the exact opposite.
• Unlike 2007, OBCs will be the deciding factor in this election
• There is an under-current against the “Muslim quota” amongst the OBCs, but it remains to be seen if it would be fully mobilized by the time elections actually take place.
• What impact will Uma Bharati have on OBC mobilization will decide the BJP’s fate in this election.
• As of now Baba Ramdev seems to have had no impact whatsoever, but one can never write him off.
Disclaimers, Data sources & conclusions
UP voters percentage break-up of various castes and religions derived from “BJP IT cell”
Previous elections voting percentages and patterns derived from “CSDS” & “BJP IT cell”
Integrity of most of the data has been counter checked with gross electoral data provided by Election Commission of India
Predictions and conclusions for 2012 are my own guesstimates based on various ground reports primarily from non-media sources but also from some media reports
There may be some inherent biases in ground reports from sources that have natural bias towards BJP/Hindu right, but I have tried to eliminate those biases to the best of my abilities.
How is upper caste different from Brahmin?
Who is this albatrossinflight? Why does he come now and then conveniently to say things that shashi shekhar wants to say?
offstumped don’t stoop to these levels by inventing ghost entities to write comments that are helpful for your own agenda of furthering bjpz cause
there is no space for bjp in up and I will tell u these elections will decimate bjp completely.
anna hazare ramdev baba all are paper tigers
u will see that upa and congress will win in all 5 state elections. justwait n watch
In this season of denials, let me also issue a standard denial that I have never tried to fly with Yossarin.
On UP elections, one small rejoinder:
One must salute the master strategist in Nitin Gadkari for his “realpolitik” approach in micro-management of OBC sub-castes by inducting the likes of “Kushwaha” who are going to give the BJP a great deal of traction in gaining the OBC vote in the wake of “Muslim 9% quota”. The art of politics is also about the ability to predict the shape of future events and Gadkari ji had rightly predicted much earlier about OBCs being the deciding factor in UP 2012, for he knew Congress would fish in the troubled Muslim-quota-waters. No matter what the media wants us to believe, this is one move that won’t back-fire on BJP national president.
P.S: Still waiting for micro-analysis by Offstumped on UP 2012… All other paid opinion/exit polls be damned.
Not sure if the caste equations will hold good for urban areas also.
But superb analysis, Albatrossinflight! Real good work!
Good analysis AIF. Just a gut feel, mayawati will probably do far worse and the SP marginally better than what your numbers project. The real gainer will be the BJP.
Good analysis by Albatrossinflight but in the wake of Election commission’s diktat, of covering all the statues of Mayawati and the elephant (BSP’s poll symbol), the SC voting % will be much higher than 40 on the election day. I am pretty sure that SC have interpreted EC’s verdict as anti-dalit and biased. If this happens, it will help BSP.
[...] It appears that Uttar Pradesh is likely to see a high turnout election. [...]