Offstumped – Commentary on Indian Politics

22 Responses

1. Jitendra Desai says:

   February 11, 2012 at 10:20 am

   Compliments for this painstaking job to keep all of us informed.Pl do compare these with actual outcomes on 7th March.
2. Albatrossinflight says:

   February 12, 2012 at 9:36 pm

   Three signals that are coming out of Uttar Pradesh after more than 60% polling in the two phases

   1. There is unprecedented scale of voting by OBC voters (including a never-seen-before high turnout amongst MBC voters)
   2. Muslim vote has undergone a split
   3. Although the Dalit voter fatigue is not as high as 2009, it still is the lowest voting block in the first 2 phases

   Let us now analyze these three signals: (in reverse)

   Firstly, the Dalit voter fatigue factor: The initial indifference amongst the BSP cadres to mobilize the Dalit vote has been curbed to some extent by Mayawati. Still there are reports that sections of Dalits like Valmikis & Pasis have not been very enthusiastic about their franchise. Reports from Sitapur, Ambedkarnagar, Bahraich, Deoriya & Gorakhpur suggest that amongst all the blocks “Dalit voters” have been the least who have turned out in polling booths. Even Jatavs have not come out in overwhelming numbers but there seems to be some improvement from the 2009 LS poll turnout among this section of Dalit voters. BSP seems to be heading for a rout, so much so that the cadres are abandoning the sinking ship in many areas (especially in urban pockets). Trouble for Mayawati is writ so large that there are strange permutations happening on the ground. A section of the BJP doesn’t want Mayawati to do too badly, because they feel that in case BSP falls below 80 then SP & Congress would come together and BJP would have no say in the formation of government – this section has been hoping to bring BJP & BSP together in the post election scenario.

   Dalit vote breakup: (our guesstimates)
   70%- BSP
   15%- Congress
   9%- BJP
   6%- others

   Secondly, the Muslim vote: Muslim vote has undergone a 3 way split, but Mulayam has got the lion’s share despite Congress trying all the tricks and Muslim parties in the fray. Muslim voting has been high historically, this time there seems to be an added impetus from various parties trying to mobilize young Muslim voters. BJP has carefully managed to remain below the radar and avoid solid consolidation amongst the Muslim voters in favor of one party – to that extent Sanjaybhai’s calculated strategy has worked in the first 2 phases. One small dip-test for non-polarization of Muslim vote would be the performance of the Ansaris, who have held on to the Muslim vote for two decades now by invoking the communal BJP – Mukhtar Ansari is probably losing this time in both the seats that he has contested. It remains to be seen how the Muslim vote will pan out in the remaining phases, especially in Western Uttar Pradesh.

   Muslim vote breakup: (our guesstimates)
   55%-SP
   20%-Congress
   10%-BSP
   15%-Others

   Finally, the OBC vote: This could well be the precursor to UP’s Bihar moment, the unprecedented OBC voter turnout. OBCs, although wield a great deal of political clout in Hindi-heartland, have notoriously under-voted in the past elections of UP (especially the MBCs). Usually, dominant OBC castes like Yadavs & Kurmis have exercised their franchise, while the MBCs have remained also-rans amongst backward castes. Credit must go to Mayawati for creating and enabling the MBC vote in UP, which having tasted success in 2007 has now emerged as a crucial voting block that could well decide the shape of government that would rule Uttar Pradesh. Historically, Samajwadis have been the benefeciaries of OBC vote (especially in the post Kalyan Singh era), but this time the non-Yadav OBC/MBC vote has gone against SP! Ground reports coming in from the first 2 phases must have surprised Mulayam Singh, for despite such a high voting percentage, SP candidates have not been doing all that well. Initially (after first phase), political observers attributed these findings to the Muslim vote split, but now they are fast realizing this new “social engineering” happening on the ground. Congress could have been the logical beneficiary of this realignment (like it did in 2009), but they have already shot themselves in the foot by trying to woo the Muslim voters. This new mobilization of the OBC/MBC vote seems to be a fall out of the Muslim quota politics. The OBC voters are apparently so angry that even Kurmis have moved away from Beni Prasad Verma and Congress, so much so that his son is expected to lose from Dariyabad.

   OBC Vote breakup: (our guesstimates, including MBCs)
   45%-BJP
   40%-SP
   15%-Others

   Upper caste vote is again going to the BJP in a big way, but that is more on expected lines. BJP seems to be outperforming even their own internal estimates as of today. I wonder how the media is unable to read these signals. People in the know – observers and political pundits who have seen UP for more than 2 decades – are surprised to see the response of voters towards BJP which is ridden with internal dissension and factionalism. This kind of Hindu-vote consolidation (upper castes and a majority of OBC/MBCs) was last seen some two decades ago during the peak of RamJanmbhoomi agitation. For instance, in districts like Gorakhpur, Bahraich, Kusinagar and Maharajganj BJP is literally sweeping the polls (Amanmani Tripathi is losing and Ambika Chaudhry is on a sticky wicket – both from SP). Even the Mahant (Yogi Adityanath), who has been a skeptic among the BJP-ites now believes that the party is heading towards a century and hopes that there is no truck with BSP in the post-poll scenario for the long term growth of BJP in UP.

   In Conclusion, after the first two phases of polling, SP & BJP are neck to neck for the number 1 slot while BSP has slipped to the third position. As for the Congress, it is left shedding tears on the Batla house. One caveat though, SP and Congress stronghold areas are going to polls now, so let us see how far the “social engineering” can sustain itself.

   Please check out the revised picture of phases 1 & 2 by clicking on the link below

   http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3517/uppollsphase12revised.jpg

   Some voices/slogans heard in the akhada of UP:

   “Pehle CWG, phir 2G aur ab Jijaji!” – BJP cadres exalting voters in Sultanpur

   “Haathi nahi hai takkar mein, kahaan pare ho chakkar mein” – MBC leaders modifying the BSP campaign call to pull in more votes against BSP from Mahadalits.

   “Samajwadi paanch saalon se bhooke hai agar woh satta mein aayenge tho khoob khaayenge, isse behetar tho yeh hoga ki Mayawatiji ki sarkaar phir se baney kyon ki unn ki bhook abb kaafi hadd tak mitgayi hai” – a realty agent from Noida

   P.S: Most of the sources that we rely on are right-leaning who had predicted a similar re-alignment in 2009 LS polls, but had also concluded that BJP would not be the logical beneficiary of this. Which probably explained, to some extent, the Congress performance in 2009.
3. Manivannan Aru (@mvaru) says:

   February 13, 2012 at 10:06 am

   @albatrossinflight Everyone knows the difference between the crowd gathers in Shushma/Uma rallies and Priyanka/Hemamalini rallies. Unfortunately we also know where the cameras will be focused. Media wants to improve its TRP ratings but want to pass it on as election coverage.

   In 2009 due to kalyan and Varun the clear trend of Muslims for congress with that some other groups joined to make it winnable in its strong constituencies.
4. Nayantara Sehgal says:

   February 13, 2012 at 1:23 pm

   I found this site accidentally after searching all over the web and am glad i found it.
   Brilliant analysis mr albatrossinflight. i have read every newspaper in the past 15 days and none has come up with a plausible explaination for the high voting%. i have lived in uttarpradesh for 6 years and know how the backward castes zealously guard their political turf. it could well be possible that they have mobilized against the 4.5% minority quota.

   To the owner of this blog: plz mke it tags more relevant, it is very difficult to find u in google

   Nayantara.s Bangalore
5. Loneranger says:

   February 13, 2012 at 1:45 pm

   -Nayantara

   Are you on some illegal substance? I have just come back from UP touring places in auraiya, sitapur, jaunpur etc,. The analysis by albatross is total bullshit. The situation on the ground is vastly different from what he is predicting. Maya will retain her position as no.1 party, SP and congress are neck and neck for no.2, and BJP will not win more than 50 seats. That 50 seats is also an optimistic figure.
6. Sunset boulevard says:

   February 13, 2012 at 4:33 pm

   @Loneranger

   Absolutely hilarious this, Congress & SP neck and neck for no 2. Just fell off from my chair laughing. Loneranger would make even Rahul Gandhi look like genius. At least Raul concedes that they will be happy to double the tally and wait for 2017.
7. Loneranger says:

   February 13, 2012 at 5:07 pm

   -Sunset

   Your fellow right wingers fell off their chairs in 2009 when I predicted at friends of BJP meet that congress will form government easily. Rest is history. People of this country are fed up of right wing groups and want to see a developed country.
8. Albatrossinflight says:

   February 13, 2012 at 8:51 pm

   Dear Loneranger,

   First of all let me thank you for reading my comment. Let me also clarify at the very outset that am no psephologist and hardly an expert political commentator, rather am an armchair analyst and it is quite possible that my analysis can go wrong. I have been studiously following the electoral politics of Uttar Pradesh since 1993 and know a thing or two about the caste and sub-regional dynamics of the state. UP is a complex riddle and there cannot be any simple dissection that you have indulged in. If you look at my post carefully, you will realize that I am not postulating anything outlandish. In fact the second phase of polling was held in areas where BJP has been stronger; they had done a lot better here even in 2009 LS polls (they were ahead in 18 assembly segments) while the rest of the UP was bad for the party. It is quite possible that BJP might not do as well in the future phases, especially since BJP, off late, is well known for its ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Having said that, the signals emanating from UP suggest that there is a strong OBC/MBC and upper caste vote consolidation (essentially the Hindu vote) which seems to be moving towards BJP, while the Muslim vote which is notorious for its tactical voting (against BJP) is getting split. Nevertheless, one can never be sure of the full outcome till at least, say, the completion of the 4th or 5th phase. Yet, am willing to stick my neck out and predict two things based on the picture as of now, unless there are dramatic changes in the next phases (which is very unlikely);

   1. BSP will not be the single largest party
   2. Congress will be a distant 4th.

   Mr. Loneranger, the very fact that you visited this self-confessed right-wing blog and devoured almost everything that is written here tells us that you are in search of the “truth” and not satisfied by the media diatribe. Also the fact that you want to retort every other comment posted on the blog with discerning alacrity betrays your confidence and also coneys that the contemptuously dismissive tone that you are trying to adapt is nothing but a facade. If anything, my analysis of the UP polls has shattered your media-fed happy existence and created self-doubt in your mind. You are now beginning to have second thoughts on the carefully crafted media construct of BJP-is-not-in-the-contest, Rahul-Priyanka-will-bring-in-the-youth-vote-for-change etc. Self-doubt is good for you son, you have made a good beginning and it will eventually lead you to a saner thought-process beyond the morass of secular-communal discourse.

   Despite your disdainful banter am willing to give you a second chance, for we right-wingers are not only largehearted but are also suckers for an erudite analysis. Since you claim that you have visited some 123 districts of UP (including some 53 new discoveries of the loonytoon Columbus) in an astonishingly little time span of one month for your research on UP, I suggest that you present at least some of your findings to back up your claims. While you are at it, please spare us the rhetoric, for we already have an awful lot of it in the evenings from your “secular” cousins like Teesta Setlavaad and Vinod Sharma on the idiot box.

   Thank you,
   An armchair-analyst
9. Venkatesh says:

   February 14, 2012 at 1:16 am

   Wonderful AIF!!! I wish there were more right wingers who could be as subtle as you but sharper than a knife! I enjoyed your post and wish that your predictions turn out right!!
10. Loneranger says:

    February 14, 2012 at 10:45 am

    -Albatross

    It is my job to conduct survey and research. I dont need five star accommodation so touring becomes easier and rewading because I get to talk to the people who really vote not those who sit in AC rooms to indulge in trash talk. You asked to share details of how I arrived at my prediction. To give you a sample, we have a list of questions which we ask the people ranging from their satisfactory level with the present MLA, the rating based on who is standing in that constituency, who is honest in their opinion among the lot etc,. We span out and stay in those places, talk to them, and get their answers. For e.g I was at Biddhuna in Auraiya and from the replies we received, it was amply clear who was leading, who may come second and who may end up losing deposit. Similarly, there are places like Benares south where BJP candidate is spoken of in good manner. Based on the survey at ground level, it was clear that except in 100 seats , BJP is of no consequence. Even in those 100, they will end up winning only 60 at the maximum. I will suggest to you that predicting results is not done by analysis on mac but by talking to people on the ground and getting their feedback.
11. zincoshine says:

    February 14, 2012 at 12:34 pm

    Loneranger –
    You want to go by what the media reports on the performance of CON party. Well, let me point you to what they dished out during TN elections just last year http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu_legislative_assembly_election,_2011#Post-poll_surveys

    The rest is history. So you believe the media at your own risk!
12. v2p says:

    February 14, 2012 at 5:13 pm

    AIF and LR are correct to a certain degree…

    1. It is a myth that FCs have deserted BSP. They would still vote for BSP, where-ever INC or BJP are not strong/winnable. And a fair assessment would reveal that BJP and INC are not strong in at least 250 assembly segments.

    2. Muslims may still vote enbloc for one candidate in one assembly segment. However this time around they anticipate a BSP-BJP government. Therefore they may vote en-bloc for the strongest non BJP non BSP candidate. This may actually help BJP in about 20-25 seats

    3. MBCs have drifted towards BSP and BJP because these parties have sounded non-supportive about a Muslim sub-quota. This would mean that SP and INC would be weakened to a certain extent.

    4. SP would have major problems in adding on to its traditional votebank of Muslim and Yadavs… Thakurs may go to BJP this time… Kurmi with Congress… other OBCs with BJP and BSP… etc.etc… so thereis no way it can improve its vote percentage (if not tally).

    5. Given the scenario, BSP is likely to be the single largest party with about 150 seats. Other parties, SP-BJP-INC would slug it out for third place… and any one of them may be 2,3,4 depending upon electoral dynamics of the day, with seats ranging from 60-90.

    Regards
13. Enthusiast (@Blstrngbrnacles) says:

    February 15, 2012 at 2:53 am

    OK..did some more analysis. I think 2009 data will not be a close relationship, but, it might be an interesting reference.

    For ex. in 2007, Congress did not really sweep amethi as hugely as in lok sabha 2004 or 2009.

    So, perhaps, some of the other data is relevant.

    is BJP in 2nd place right now? Complicated. But, it might be a good idea.
14. Jiggs says:

    February 15, 2012 at 11:31 pm

    I agree with @Albatrossinflight’s analysis.

    Mulayam Singh Yadav earlier today vindicated it when he said “Not averse for tie-up with Congress, If BJP gets majority”.

    Of course within 2 hours he said “misquoted by media”.

    This is important coming out from the horse’s mouth. Mulayam Singh made it clear that actual fight is between SP and BJP.

    Congress is indeed pretty Lonely in UP
15. Raja says:

    February 16, 2012 at 3:36 pm

    Albatrossinflightji,

    I should first congratulate you for the pain staking analysis. I am also one of the right wing supporters who are associated with lot of social organizations in spite of my busy work schedule. In fact, I am associated with one project involving upliftment of poor Muslims” and I can proudly say that our organisation has got much more respect and love from these poor people than the so called “left liberal, secular parties” who spend most of the time in television studios and writing articles against right wing ideology. By associating with them I personally know how disillusioned these poor people are with the establishment. For them “Gujarat riots” or “4.5% quota” do not mean a thing. They just want roti / kapda aur makan from anyone who can give it to them including Narendra Modi.

    As a Sales head of my company, I and my subordinates have been travelling across Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the past 6 months as per the demands of our job. Market research forms a big component of my responsibilities. We have been meeting a lot of people (panchayat leaders, local groups etc), including rural and semi urban areas. An avid lover of Indian Politics, I happen to invariably discuss politics / elections with these people.

    While I agree to most of your analysis, I would differ on the following points in your various posts / comments. Your link for a pan-UP Caste based poll analysis may also be referred to.

    1) Dalit voting is much higher that the figure projected by you. It should be around 50-55% after Phase-III. BSP cadres are ensuring higher turnouts by Dalits so that BSP can reduce its losses.
    2) There is a major shift of Upper caste votes in urban areas from BJP to INC and to some extent SP. INC is gaining upper caste votes in a big way in Awadh and West/North Purvachal region especially among youth. SP is gaining in the rest of UP. I have personally visited urban areas and got a feel of this shift. The loss of minority votes by SP to INC would be offset by this gain.
    3) Muslims neither have not voted nor will vote for BJP anywhere in the state.
    4) There is absolutely no consolidation of either OBC/MBC or Upper caste votes in favour of BJP at the ground level due to 4.5% minority quota. However Uma Bharati’s campaigning is helping BJP to get an additional few seats in Bundelkhand only. INC is not doing well in this region including Jhansi.

    Reworking the arithmetic, the final vote share world be as : SP – 26.5%, BSP – 24.0%, INC/RLD – 21.5%, BJP – 14.5%. Being a right winger myself, I am predicting this with a pinch of salt.
    (INC would more or less keep its 18.5% vote share polled during Lok sabha polls intact. RLD would add another 3% to it.)

    A big advantage with the INC is that its voters are in pockets unlike BSP and SP. Hence with 18.5% vote share, it managed to upstage BSP during 2009 winning 21 seats and was leading in 94 assembly segments. BSP, with its core vote share spread out across the state, managed only 20 LS seats with a 27.4% share. In 2004 polls also, INC got only 11.3% of the popular vote, where as it led in 49 Assembly segments. Indications are that it would get similar number of seats this time, which they were leading in 2009 parliamentary polls. A close fight between BSP and INC/RLD is offing for the 2nd place with around 105-110 seats each.

    SP would be the biggest gainer in the number of seats with a tally of around 160-165.

    After BSP, BJP would be a biggest loser in this election with around 40-45 seats, for which I feel what Loneranger has predicted, is correct. Though, I no way subscribe to his language and anti-right wing rhetoric, which are emanating from his comments.

    I would like to add one thing. There is palpable anti incumbency brewing against most of the sitting INC Lok Sabha members from the State, though the same is not affecting the current round of elections. However, in case the same trend continues, the party would be in for a major shock in 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
16. Bala says:

    February 16, 2012 at 7:18 pm

    Well, Yesterday I watched CNN IBN battle for States episode. Yogendra Yadav clearly said that, BJP is out of race in UP!! For BJP, it is hard to even hold the current tally. Cong will surprise every one by going to the second place. Upper castes are moving towards Cong. Watch the video:
17. Loneranger says:

    February 16, 2012 at 9:42 pm

    - Raja

    Thank you for validating my analysis. Like you, I have been in UP for one month and it is obvious that anyone who has visited the ground will have the same analysis. BJP is a fringe player now similar to what the CPM was in UP some 20 years ago. That is the harsh reality and the sooner the right wingers accept it, the better it is for them to fix it. No point living in denial.
18. Raja says:

    February 17, 2012 at 4:28 pm

    Loneranger ji

    I completely disagree with your views that BJP has become a fringe player. As mentioned in my post, there is palpable anti incumbency brewing against most of the sitting INC Lok Sabha members from the State, though the same is not affecting the current round of elections. I have personally visited around 14 constituencies where INC has won in 2009 and have seen the disillusionment building up. In fact in Moradabad town, having high minority population, the local BJP leader is more popular that Azharuddin among minorities!!!

    The problem this time that BJP has started very late and as a result could not encash on the disenchantment of the MBC / Upper castes. In fact I have talked to lot of upper caste and non Yadav OBC leaders at grass root level as well as youth leaders in urban UP. I have found that mostly they prefer BJP over INC. However, since in this current round BJP has not prepared itself, they are voting en bloc for SP & INC (in urban areas) so that BSP can be kept out. The main aim is to defeat BSP and they are voting to the party who can defeat them. This is the reason of the shift of Upper caste votes in urban areas from BJP to INC and SP. Similar shift was observed in 2007 assembly polls where the shift took place from BJP to BSP, since the voters felt that only BSP could defeat SP. It took only 2 years for this bloc to shift its loyalty and they voted for INC in 2009. The fresh young faces (RPN Singh, Pradip Jain, Kamal Kishore, Vinay Pandey, Anu Tandon, Arun Tiwari, Azharuddin) put up by INC in 2009 also captured the minds of the voters, thus ensuring 21 seats for the party.

    The entire scenario would change in the Lok Sabha polls as the anti incumbency against the ruling UPA would come into play. Moreover, in case of a hung assembly (very likely), INC would try to rule by proxy thru’ President’s rule. In such case if the party does not implement its promise of 9% minority quota, it would lose their votes in a big way just like post-1992. In case they really implement it, there would be a reverse consolidation of OBC against INC, which would directly help BJP (and not SP) since OBCs know very well that SP would any way ally with INC in the Lok Sabha. Currently the consolidation is not taking place as they think that the announcement is just a poll stunt. This was also one of the major findings after talking to the grass root level OBC leaders.

    Another fact. Among urban youth corruption is a big issue, which cuts across all sections of youth in the society. I have talked to a lot of students / young adults and found the high level of disenchanement with the INC led government. Though Kushwaha and Karnataka episodes have dented BJPs image , it fares much better than the image of UPA-2. This section which had voted for INC in a big way in 2009 can be tapped by BJP since the disillusionment is starting to show.

    Ditto for the minority vote, which INC had tapped due to SP-Kalyan Singh alliance in 2009. SP has become wiser now and hence INC would not be able to get that level of minority support in 2014.

    Moreover, Uma Bharti has brought in a level of vibrancy in BJP’s campaign, which has been acknowledged also by the media (NDTV, CNN-IBN). Though it is unlikely that it would translate into votes in the current round of polls, it can have a lasting impact in case she stays back in UP till 2014.

    In addition, the fresh faces put up by INC in 2009 shall also face major anti incumbencies in their respective constituencies. I have seen the anti incubmbency building up and this does not bode well for the party.

    Hence let us wait till 2014, before we write off BJP.
19. Anshuman says:

    February 17, 2012 at 9:13 pm

    guys like raja n lone ranger forget there are people who live in UP n are moving all around UP too n nt fr a month ..but fr a much longer period…n they hv a different tale to tell..till then happy posting
20. Anonymous says:

    February 18, 2012 at 11:23 pm

    My personal belief is that nobody votes for local MLA/candidate types unless one knows him/her personally. People vote for party. Only exception is if the person is either too popular or too notorious to be ignored. So I disagree with Loneranger’s analysis where they went around the town with that paper about local MLA in hand.

    Further, it seems everybody here is giving a pass to the issue of EVMs which, in my analysis, is going to be a big factor in this election.
21. Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012 – Phase 4 analysis « Offstumped – Commentary on Indian Politics says:

    February 24, 2012 at 5:03 am

    [...] compared to what we have seen so far in this election. (Also see analysis for – Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase [...]
22. Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012 – Phase 3 analysis « Offstumped – Commentary on Indian Politics says:

    March 2, 2012 at 6:49 am

    [...] 56 seats went to polls in the third phase for the Uttar Pradesh assembly on February 15th. The initial estimates in turnout at 56-57% are tad lower than the 60+% turnout reported in phase 1 and phase2. [...]

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