Offstumped – Commentary on Indian Politics

39 Responses

1. maidros says:

   February 23, 2012 at 9:31 am

   Yoss,
   I don’t pretend to understand what is happening in UP, distanced as I am from the Indian electoral scene. I just have one observation to make. Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam, Mayawati, and the assortment of BJP leaders have all been around since quite sometime. Certainly, they were all present during the last assembly and parliament elections. What exactly is new that is causing this surge in voting? Rahul Gandhi? Doubtful. Why would he suddenly inspire passion that he did not in the last two elections? Akilesh Yadav? Not him either – you can hardly claim that the man is inspiring. So what is truly new? Only one factor. Baba Ramdev and his group. Is he causing this voter surge? The man certainly has a strong following in UP, but could he cause this voter surge? I don’t know. But he is the only real new factor that I can see that has come in this election. Now the Delhi media has blanked him out, but the man is there, quietly working against the Congres.
2. Stinivad says:

   February 23, 2012 at 10:10 am

   Waiting for raja/raag/loners get and other peons/wannabes of the duffer yadav, to come and present some fake statistics. Survey in lucknow: 20.113 pct never heard of him, 30.991 pct think he is a fake yogi, 40.535 pct think that his beard is too long, so will not listen to him, 15.1123 pct think he is an alien, and a microscopic minority as elusive as the Higgins boson, 0.000000011 pct will actually listen to Ramsey

   These idiots do no even understand that percentages sum to a hundred, leave alone understand significant digits.
3. Shiv (@shivsBHARAT) says:

   February 23, 2012 at 11:19 am

   Again based on 2009 election we can really not conclude current election. Many factors arrived and the entire scenario changed from 2009 general election. In Bundelkhand i can bet on BJP this time for surprising performance.
4. Enthusiast (@Blstrngbrnacles) says:

   February 23, 2012 at 5:37 pm

   @maidros – agree with your view, except for 1 fact -: Maybe you underestimate akhilesh singh . He could be the X-factor . otherwise, maybe the national anti-congress discontent has reached UP.
5. INDRA LAL says:

   February 23, 2012 at 7:09 pm

   according to my astrological calculations the results will be as follows
   1. SP 160
   2.BJP 90
   3.CONG+RLD 90
   4.BSP 60
   5. OTHERS 03
   ———————————
   TOTAL 403
   ———————————
6. Rishi Raj Manglesh says:

   February 23, 2012 at 7:50 pm

   - Indra

   do you have SP & BSP party horoscope ?
7. Albatrossinflight says:

   February 23, 2012 at 9:48 pm

   It is probably the times that we live in, that it converts the best amongst us into cynics. Times when even judicial pronouncements are flavored to not offend anyone, so that everybody can be both a victim as well as a culprit at the same time. It also gives the left-liberal media enough material to indulge in propaganda based on their own whims and fancies of self preservation.

   After all even Offstumped is entitled to be a cynic, for hasn’t NAMO decided to stay away from the muddy waters. It is a logically sound analysis though, but I, as usual, have a third set of alternate theories to the binary option that you have presented. At the crux of my argument is my pet theory of neo-OBC politics of the Hindi-heartland. Just like second generation economic reforms (famously propagated by Arun Shourie), we are in the midst of second generation of Mandal politics. The mandalization of Indian polity has already delivered the politically dominant OBCs and middle castes like Yadavs & Kurmis, but has left a lot to desire amongst other MBCs. This second generation of Mandal politics has by now matured in Bihar and has produced some astounding results there. Organization of MBCs/Mahadalits/non-dominant-OBCs has given Nitish Kumar & BJP-JDU alliance an unbeatable combo in Bihar. 2012 could well be the turning point for the second generation of Mandal politics in Uttar Pradesh.

   To be sure, in UP the process of re-organization of MBCs and a section of OBCs had already started to some extent in 2007, when a significant section of this vote moved towards Mayawati as a mark of protest against the muscle-flexing by the dominant Yadavs. This same section of voters (at least major chunks of it) moved towards Rahul’s Congress in 2009 LS polls. The astounding victory of Congress in 09 was more on account of this MBC/OBC vote rather than what the media hypes as “Muslim anger against Mulayam”; just like the media gives undue credit to the Brahmin vote for Mayawati’s victory in 07. In 2012, again this MBC/OBC (non-Yadav) vote is taking a decisive turn… this time towards BJP, for three major reasons; 1) Sadhvi Uma Bharati – who is seen as a down-to-earth “backward” leader who doesn’t propagate “bahubalis” to oppress non-dominant OBCs, 2) Babu Singh Kushwaha’s Pichara Mahapanchayat & 3) The Minority quota proposed by Congress & reluctantly seconded by SP, which is being portrayed as most hurtful to the opportunities of MBCs.

   OBCs/MBCs – whose turnouts historically used to be in the range of sub 40’s to early 40’s – have this time come out in large numbers to vote. Thus “turnout the base” – as you term it – applies to the OBC/MBC vote. This is a ground reality, but the news media keeps endlessly hyping about “youth”, “Muslim” & “Woman” voter turnouts. I strongly believe that the MBC vote in combination with Lodhs and sections of OBCs have added to the core Brahmin vote to significantly improve the performance of BJP (about 55% in 07 and 65% in 09 Brahmins voted for BJP). That (OBC/MBC voter turnout) partially explains the hike in the vote percentage in this election.

   The second reason for a high voter turnout is a technical one – the substantial corrections to voter rolls done by the EC. Some experts believe that at least 8 to 10% of gross hike in vote percentage is simply because the errors have been corrected (imagine what a faulty democracy we have been living with!).

   The third significant reason has to be the massive campaigns undertaken by Baba Ramdev & Anna Hazare. This is again an aspect that is completely missing in the media narrative, but is having a substantial impact on the voters at the ground-level. The problem with news media today is that it has much less attention spans, the same media which was gung-ho about the anti-corruption movements just a few months back is now completely discounting any impact of the same on the UP polls. Despite the infamy that “public-memory-is-short” syndrome has attained over the years, truth is that these set of assembly elections in 2012 provide us the first real opportunity to gauge the mood of the nation in the wake of hugely successful civil-society movements.

   P.S: Phase 5 is further proof that BJP is doing much better than what News-Media wants us to believe. For whatever it is worth, I will present my much-maligned ground reports on phase 5 & 6 in the next few days – verbal diarrhea, anybody?
8. tejas says:

   February 23, 2012 at 10:52 pm

   @Albatrossinflight
   Sir,i dont know who you are?i dont know about your past predictions,but whatever u say,u give a sound logic to corraborate it.hats off.i want to know who you are?are you on twitter?
9. Vikas Saraswat says:

   February 23, 2012 at 11:31 pm

   My heart wants to believe Albatrossinflight’s analysis but the scenario is really complicated to hazard any firm guesses. One thing is sure though, different regions of UP would throw up staggeringly different voting patterns. A few patterns that are discernible are
   1. RLD Jat vote is not getting transferred to Congress in the way it would have hoped for. Jats traditionally have been anti Congress and are not very enthusuastic where they have to support non Jat Congress candidtaes.
   2. Even RLD may not benefit much from Congress alliance, given the kind of introversion RLD and its Jat voters have cultivated for themselves.
   2.A significant Muslim vote will see a return to SP fold even after Congress’ desperate attempts to woo them. Only in some pockets like Azamgarh and Metros with urban Muslim population can Congress hope to make a dent in Muslim vote. In towns and smaller cities SP will clearly corner the Muslim vote. BSP in any case will get a bigger share of Muslim vote than Congress, given its more serious contention.
   3. BSP’s Brahmin vote share will dwindle. In Western UP, BJP will gain but in Eastern UP Congress is expected to gain more.
   4. Politics in rural UP has its own dynamics. Yadavs, Jats and Thakurs and in some places even Brahmins, given their dominant and dominating character elicit a consolidation of secondary castes inopposition. This time because SP wasn’t in Power a strong anti Yadav consolidation will be absent. A lesser reported fact of the last election was a Yadav indifference and even a bit of resentment with Mulayam Singh which saw lesser numbers of Yadavs turning to Booths and some even supporting BSP Yadav candidates. A strong Yadav mobilisation in support of SP can be seen this time.
   5. The OBC loss of vote from BSP’s share of last time will see a drift towards both SP and BJP.
   6. A substantial Thakur vote will be shifting from BJP towards SP. The reason for this shift is the high handedness of Rajnath Singh who has preempted the rise of any Thakur leadership to keep his postion as the solo Thakur leader of the Party safe. A number of top leaders including some sitting MLAs have left Party to join with SP.
   I am not a psephologist to put these things in a proper perspective though these appear to be fairly discernible trends from what my armchair offers me. Others on this blog can try to read what all this may finally yield.
10. Vikas Saraswat says:

    February 23, 2012 at 11:42 pm

    And yes, Baba Ramdev will have an effect in favour of BJP, howsoever insignificant.

    @maidross Akhilesh Yadav is being seen as sincere by a lot of people. His Kranti Rath Yatra has elicited a huge response. Even Baba Ramdev has signalled his support for Akhilesh in many of his statements though it comes as a secondary, after his first support to Uma Bharati.
11. Albatrossinflight says:

    February 24, 2012 at 12:09 am

    Tejas,

    No sir, I abhor social media (twitter, facebook et al.) and the instant reactions that come with it. To maintain clarity of ideas one needs to be distant from such mediums of expression, but have great respect for “Offstumped” as one of the conscience keepers of Indian Right.

    I am just an ordinary guy with no past predictions to boast of. All I have is logic (in copious quantities at that) and am glad you subscribe to it.

    Right now am just obsessed with UP elections, nothing else matters. Have just now received partial data of today’s polling percentage across various constituencies and am trying to make sense out of it.

    The only aspect am worried about, as far as UP elections go, is whether I should have second thoughts about BSP’s “rout” in this election.
12. Albatrossinflight says:

    February 24, 2012 at 12:17 am

    Vikas,

    Most of your points make sense… but I disagree with a significant few (Including Rajnath singh’s contributions… I think he has done a fairly good job).

    Give me a few days and I will post my Phase 5 & 6 ground reports… am waiting for some important details
13. Shashi Shekhar says:

    February 24, 2012 at 12:38 am

    Clarification: Too many DM's on whether I am Albatrossinflight. Its not me, but the analysis not very different from that of mine.—
    FC Barcelona Fan (@FCBtheChamps) February 23, 2012
14. Shashi Shekhar says:

    February 24, 2012 at 12:38 am

    Would post my district wise tally & differences with Albatrossinflight on March 4th.—
    FC Barcelona Fan (@FCBtheChamps) February 23, 2012
15. Bala says:

    February 24, 2012 at 12:31 pm

    What I guess, that, Thakurs will move towards BJP than Brahmins this time due to Amar Singh factor. Amar is silently working for BJP in UP. He and Gadkari held a secret meeting before the UP polls in Delhi.
    Brahmin vote is most notorious vote in UP. No one can actually predict who they are voting for. So, every one says they are voting for it. For example, Yogendra claimed that, Brahmin youth is going to Rahul in a big way.
16. Enthusiast (@Blstrngbrnacles) says:

    February 24, 2012 at 1:06 pm

    The brahmin vote is divided. Places like kanpur is congress, but, Varanasi, Meerut,lucknow is BJP.

    Rumour is Jhansi will go BJP this time. Muslims are divided this time , so congress falls down.
17. tejas says:

    February 24, 2012 at 2:16 pm

    @albatrossinflight
    i am beleiving u blindly.waiting for march 6.hope u reveal ur identity then…………………
18. Rishi Raj Manglesh says:

    February 24, 2012 at 5:47 pm

    SP and Congress are targeting the same vote bank and media wants us to believing that they both are gaining multifold.

    SP:

    Is SP gaining Muslim votes against 2007? No it will lose a chunk of it to Congress
    Is SP gaining Upper Cast votes? No due to long rivalry they are going to Congress / BJP / BSP.
    Is SP getting traditional non-Yadav votes ? They are facing competition from BJP this time.
    Is SP getting Dalit/MBC votes ? No they are stronghold of Mayawati

    My Verdict : SP will repeat its 2007 performance.
    Surprises : It may lose its vote share to Congress if any gains from BSP
    Positive : Young Akhilesh Yadav
    Negative : Goonda raj perception

    Congress:

    Is Congress gaining Muslim votes against 2007? Yes, a little from SP
    Is Congress gaining Upper Cast votes? Yes a little from BJP and little from BSP. But not in big way due to minority appeasement.
    Is Congress getting traditional non-Yadav votes ? Yes, a little from SP due to high pitch campaigning. But not in big way due to cutting their quota.
    Is Congress getting Dalit/MBC votes ? No they are stronghold of Mayawati

    My Verdict : Congress will increase its vote share against 2007. Most of votes will get wasted and the votes required for other parties for win will decrease.
    Surprise : It may get good contribution from Upper casts and Muslims thus weakening SP & BJP. This will help Mayawati to march ahead.
    Positive: High pitch campaigning and media support.
    Negative: Everything about it except Priyanka Gandhi

    BJP:

    Is BJP gaining Muslim votes against 2007? Hopeless
    Is BJP gaining Upper Cast votes? They had gone to BSP in 2007. They might get back few and lose some to Congress. But expect status qua.
    Is BJP getting traditional non-Yadav votes ? Not BJP stronghold but due to politics around OBC/MBC. Strench opposition to Muslim quota will help them win sizable chunk of Non-Yadav OBC. They for 40-50% of UP population.
    Is BJP getting Dalit votes ? No they are stronghold of Mayawati

    My Verdict : BJP will gain big vote share. Need to see if it translates into seats. Khushwaha factor will be neutral.
    Surprises : It may outperform themselves as their aim to win 80-90 seats as they feel these much seats are enough to influence the power equation in UP and make them relevant player.
    Positive : Congress / SP communal politics diving Muslim votes and polarizing Hindu votes.
    Negative : Low pitch campaigning. Limited influence in the state.

    BSP :

    Verdict : Even Mayawati loses anti-incumbency votes but they will split among three parties thus she will be biggest party by vote share.
    Surprises : Congress / SP communal politics polarizing Hindu votes might favor her where ever BJP is weak.
    Positives : Dalit/MBC vote bank intact thus always be in power equation.
    Negatives : Difficult to get majority. Anti-incumbency and party ousters may spoil her votes.

    Thus, I am still upbeat about my astrological prediction and after 5 phase of polling, I am getting a sense that if Congress can’t win enough seats to help form SP/BSP govt then UPA end days are coming as BJP will ask SP/BSP to withdraw support from UPA first before supporting.
19. Rishi Raj Manglesh says:

    February 24, 2012 at 5:49 pm

    Few weeks ago, I had given astrological prediction about UP elections and general political scenario of country in 2012.

    So far things look on track but I just wanted to revisit and give my friends a little more anticipation of what future might be holding for us:

    BSP: I hold my prediction that Mayawati will loose ground but will form Govt.

    She will get opposition from Upper caste/class support this time around.

    But she will get 100 % Dalit votes and most of backward castes/class votes across region and religions.

    Thus, BSP is likely to be largest party after elections.

    SP: It is turning out to be true that Mulayam Singh Yadav will not be CM of Uttar Pradesh.

    SP would have done badly under his leadership as stars are unfavourable for him.

    So, I have to study again the chances of SP this election under Akhilesh leadership.

    SP will support Congress at Center after elections and Akhilesh will be Minister denying Mulayam any higher position again.

    Congress(I) : Congress has started loosing ground very fast and situation will be out of their hand in party and govt.

    Nothing will work for them and party will be very weak.

    Rahul will be promoted and Priyanka Gandhi Vadara will be brought (after June 2012) in Congress party to rebuild the organization.

    She will replace Sonia Gandhi in Congress.

    Sonia will be irrelevant and Rahul’s magic won’t work. Priyanka will be a new force for Congress to survive but she not likely to be in Govt. but only in the party organization.

    BJP : As I said above, BJP will consolidate amazingly and will build a platform to explode.

    They might not form Government. but will be king maker.

    They will be united house and changed outfit after this election and will be on roll.

    They will dominate national political scenario this year.

    As I said, the next prime minister will be declared after April and there should be plenty of clues in this election.

    He will lead BJP from the front and capture the imagination of the country.
    People will be anti-Government and there will be several attempts to bring down the Government.

    There will be bigger mass movements this year.

    I think Baba Ramdev, Anna Hazare, Shri Shri Ravishakar and other anti-govt pro-people movement will unite to fight Government.

    Dr. Subranamium Swamy will remake his political fortune by associating with this movement.

    Government will pass tons of bills under pressure. Judical and politican reform will start in India from this year.

    Second half of 2012 will be very good for India financially and economy will be very steady benefiting common people.

    India will undertake several mega projects and will complete them successfully.
20. chinmay says:

    February 24, 2012 at 7:51 pm

    So albatrossinflight it was you who accused me of having verbal diarrhea.I dont mind your tantrum.I am also a supporter of BJP and i appreciate your knack for keen political analysis and objectivity.But it seems you seem to have premised your analysis on two major incorrect assessments which are leading to wrong conclusions by you in the end.

    Let me elucidate two important things.The so called muslim quota issue has no political traction as far as UP is concerned.To even expect it to have significant impact is to simply expect to much.This issue is more alive in media AC discussion rooms than at ground level.

    Secondly your argument that there is social churning in society and that second phase of mandal politics is in play looks convincing but MBCS and other OBCS dont have that kind of mobilizational capability nor cohesion like say jatavs,yadavs and to an extent kurmis.They in effect are not a monolithic entity in themselves which has resulted in their inability to realize their full potential.

    But you see to be right on aspects.This time the surge in voting seems to be more on account of correct voter lists and the subtle effect of annaji and ramdev crusades.These i think have led to greater democratic awareness particularly among the youth,.But they cant be effecting congress prospects as in all probability mayawati is seen to be more corrupt than congress as far as UP is concerned .

    The ground reports suggest that a strong BSP hatao abhiyaan is in play across UP which is bringing various social groups with little social and political cohesion together leading to old caste combinations getting tuned upside down.

    My estimate is SP will get around 180 seats,BSP-85-90,CONGRESS-45-58,BJP-35-40 only
21. India: Analysis Of Uttar Pradesh Polls · Global Voices says:

    February 25, 2012 at 3:56 am

    [...] OFfstumped posts analysis of the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Tweet OFfstumped posts analysis of the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. [...]
22. Raja says:

    February 25, 2012 at 1:51 pm

    Albatross ji

    I could not reply to your analysis (dtd 20.02.2012) against my findings as I was away in Kanpur… no prizes for guessing why?

    Though I appreciate your vast data bank and analysis, I wish to point out certain details w.r.t your comments. Before that I would like to honestly admit that I do not have such a huge data bank giving such minute booth wise details. I relied on feedback taken directly from the field / voters by me personally and my colleagues. This involved our personal resources and we are poorer by around Rs.1.5 – 2.0 lakhs. Still our keen interest and passion outweighs all economics.

    You have given your data (eg. Booth 72 – Unnao), w.r.t to the social and religious demographics of the area, mentioning detailed %age of the population break up, which I am not disputing. Bit neither you have mentioned the trend of votes polled by various caste segments nor which segment of the population have voted the highest in this election. You have simply assumed that Muslim vote has been divided into 3 parts, resulting in a BJP victory, without any proper data from field. From my experience I can say that politics and voting patterns are not so simple, else the entire media machinery & political parties would root for this type of extrapolation based on demographics.

    With regard to your “assumed” OBC/MBC consolidation against the minority quota issue, you have referred to the “post-mandal history books on UP” as basis. No ground survey or feedback has been provided mentioning this consolidation. In fact print media supposedly close to BJP have no where mentioned about such grand consolidation favouring BJP. I have personally talked to lot of OBC / MBC leaders on this issue and they have said that such consolidation was only in small pockets and would certainly not result in change in BJP’s fortune.

    I wish to add that during 2006, when Arjun Singh introduced OBC quota in educational institutions, similar upper caste consolidation was being talked about in favour of BJP in various blogs, social media sites and main stream media. But the 2007 assembly results proved otherwise. In fact the same upper castes voted in a big way for the Congress in 2009 both in UP as well as in Delhi, the epicenter of the anti-reservations protests.

    I had the opportunity to visit poll rallies of all the 4 major parties in UP. If sizes of poll rallies are of any indication, Mayawati would beat every one hands down. But, I repeat; politics and voting patterns are not so simple and hence size of Kushwaha’s & Uma Bharti’s rallies may not translate into the so called resurgence of BJP. Uma Bharti & Kushwaha factor is limited to Bundelkhand area only and certainly has not energized the OBC/MBC votes across the entire state.

    I earnestly request you to visit UP on the polling day in the last 2 phases and talk to the voters in the field instead of relying on demographics, statistics and logic. You will get a real feel on what is happening. If, after talking to the voters, you still honestly feel that BJP is on an upswing, I would throw away my analysis into the dust bin and promise not to take up any such mis-adventures later.

    Though I feel that one has the freedom to be “right minded” or “left minded” but while carrying out analysis of any election, this bias (whether right or left) should be kept aside. Else there would be no difference between us and the likes of Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Ketkar, CNN-IBN, NDTV, etc who consistently harbor anti-BJP n pro-Congress rants in their analysis.

    From the numerous reactions received against my comments, I feel sad that I have become a pariah in this blog. My only mistake is that I have honestly brought about my analysis, which, I feel is correct. After all, there can be differences of opinion / interpretation, but to hurl abuses at someone who does not agree with a particular view point, is like living in a Talibani society. Hence I do not wish to provide any additional finding (especially in Kanpur) here as I feel it may upset lot of subscribers in this blog and I do not have the intention of doing so.

    For your information (though it is irrelevant to this topic), I can proudly declare that I have voted in all parliamentary elections since 1996 (barring 1998) as per below, which can give a picture of my political leanings.
    1996 – BJP;
    1999 – TMC (NDA alliance);
    2004 – CPI(M)
    2009 – BJP.
    In 2004, I did not vote for the NDA nominee from TMC as the candidate was corrupt to the core and was a regular party hopper (Cong to TMC and vice versa). I wish to ask every one and all, how many of you have actually voted for your party during elections, instead of hurling abuses.

    Thus I wish to temporarily withdraw from this blog till 6th March, 2012, which shall be the D-Day. The actual results would automatically rebut all the abuses and allegations hurled at me. On that date, I would definitely reply to Stinivad ji and others for their comments politely, after declaration of the results. Observing the voting pattern after 5 phases, I am now pretty sure about the final vote share / seats.

    Before leaving, I wish to state that Chinmay ji is right w.r.t SP tally. Fortunes of INC+ & BSP would hinge in the last 2 phases. BSP has definitely arrested some of its free fall in the last 2 phases. My final estimate as per current trends is as under.
    SP : 175-180; BSP : 85-90; INC+ : 85-90; BJP : 30-35.

    If BSP further arrests the drifting of its upper caste vote share (like the last 2 phases) to other parties, the picture would look like.
    SP : 160-165; BSP : 110-115; INC+ : 75-80; BJP : 30-35.

    But I would place my bets on the 1st prediction.
23. chinmay says:

    February 25, 2012 at 6:39 pm

    Rajaji,albatross ji and other political analysts of higher stature.I may be not as incisive a political analyst like you but I have been observing UP for sometime now and have summed up courage to draw some definitive conclusions.One thing I have realized after keenly observing UP scenarios is the Muslim quota issue is a highly hyped one which has little relevance on ground.From the data I have gathered from ground its very clear that this issue is not at all effecting voting pattern of people even those of OBCS who are going to be likely victims of this congress largess e on muslims.

    The biggest surprise i believe this election could throw is the performance of SP which could hit as high as 180-190 seats riding on back of a upper caste-OBC-muslim consolidation. From the evidence i have gathered it has emerged upper castes were as indifferent to BJP as they were in 2007.Indeed in many districts they have gone with SP,congress candidates.

    Albatrossji seems to have premised his analysis of strong BJP performance on MBC/lower OBC consolidation calling it second phase of mandal politics but the fact is these castes have little mobilizational capability nor social cohesion to politically rally behind any outfit to prove a point like jatavs,yadavs,kurmis do.This itself negates any argument of a surge in BJP performance on back of such illusionary consolidation.

    BJP has gone out of reckoning in atleast 130-150 seats and UMA factor is also a very hyped one.I think she could have an impact only in bundhelkhand and that too not beyond 2-3 districts.

    BJp in most parts of UP is going towards oblivion and it has life in its campaign only in urban seats and heavily muslim dominated seats.

    This election undoubtedly has gone in favor of mulayam and son akhilesh who seem to have pressed all right buttons.Congress did well in first phase but after that put up a pathetic show due to wrong selection of candidates and various other factors.From second phase onwards a clear consolidation of muslim vote in favor of SP was visible.Mulayam might have got almost50% of muslim vote a gain of nearly 17% compared to 2009 elections.The biggest issues in this election were corruption under mayawati and harassment of upper caste and OBC youth under SC/ST atrocities prevention act.This has badly hit BSP especially in poorvanchal

    As BSP hato campaign gathered steam hitherto unknown social alliances started appearing on ground upsetting previous caste calculations.For example upper castes like thakurs and significant sections of brahmins in eastern UP came over over aversion to vote for SP candidates leading to losses for BSP and BJP.

    So several complex issues intertwined to set stage for rallying together of various social groupings leading to massive surge in favor of SP.Any one who has witnessed voting pattern in 4 and 5th phases will acknowledge SP has steamed ahead of others in the race.

    I think with all due respect to albatrossji has made a mistake in premising his analysis on voting trend of past election without giving much credence to present realities.His analysis looks technical and subjective rather than objective in analysis.This has lead to wrong conclusions at the end.Although he seems to be correct on influence to some extent of annaji,ramdev crusades to some extent.

    As for rajaji congress will definitely increase its vote share but it wont cross 50 seats as for such to happen it would have to poll close to 16% which it seems incapable of even with an alliance.Dont take 2009 elections as base line as loksabha elections are altogether different ball game

    From the information i have gathered it seems to be a SP show all way
    SP-185-190 SEATS
    BSP-85-90
    CONGRESS-50
    BJP-35-40 SEATS
    The result on march 6 will be almost on this line.Mark my words
24. blackbeak says:

    February 25, 2012 at 10:02 pm

    Hi – I have followed offstumped since the days when you first burst on the scene with some bold predictions and analysis. However I feel that you have watered down quite a bit and have come too politically correct. For example where is the offstumped spirit that will call out (rightly or wrongly) the no of seats projected to be won by each party. Exit polls are banned but opinions are not!!

    With regards to UP – it is a no brainer that the SP will sweep the polls and win a clear majority on its own. The race clearly is for 2014 to see how that dynamic and how the congress and the BJP performance will impact that election. I am afraid that the BJP will do badly. All said and done it is a Mayawati versus Mulayam versus Rahul election. The BJP bullied by the RSS has failed to even name a contender.

    You cannot win a state election without projecting a CM candidate. But the chitpavan brahmins that rule the RSS and the BJP are afraid that “personality” politics will derail their power. No wonder then that Kalraj Mishra, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Gadkari are the so called leaders. Rest assured that in terms of mass appeal they have “no personality” at all. This will also translate to “no seats”.

    Wouldn the UP election be different if the BJP had boldly projected Rajnath Singh as the UP CM candidate and Varun Gandhi and Uma Bharti as the Deputy CM candidates. Kalraj Mishra would have been moved to a party leadership position.

    Fact is you cannot win a state without a personality. Hopefully the BJP will learn this from the coming UP thrashing and will implement it in Rajasthan and pick a leader in Orissa where there is a need for an opposition.

    Lastly the BJP is increasingly being perceived as a brahmin party. Whatever be the reason why wouldnt the non brahmins be suspicious of a party leadership that is almost completely brahmin where all these so called leaders cannot even win a corporator seat in New Delhi on their own.
25. Fir-e-brand says:

    February 25, 2012 at 11:43 pm

    Yes SP and BSP are locked in a tough battle for majority. Since SP strongholds have recently gone or are going in for polls nothing concrete can be stated about their position relative to “Haathi”. Coming to BJP, it touched its nadir or in other words barebones vote base of upper caste and Hindutva votebank in 2007 elections. This time Uma Bharti and Kushwaha factors will add some seats to the kitty and the party may improve its tally by upto 20-30% seats relative to last time. INC will see a decent rise in its voteshare but only a moderate rise in number of seats. Nothing compared to the number of Lok Sabha seats won in 2009.
26. SHREYAS RAJ says:

    February 25, 2012 at 11:51 pm

    can’t say much about other parties, but BJP is surely going to win more than 50 seats and not to forget that people are underestimating BSP.
27. Anonymous says:

    February 26, 2012 at 12:05 am

    BJP at least 70. Can touch up to 90-95. If that doesn’t happen, rest assured, it is EVM rigging.
28. v2p says:

    February 26, 2012 at 2:35 am

    Dear Blackbeak,

    I dont find SP sweeping the poll proposition a no-brainer. In fact I find its non-improvement a no brainer.

    Where SP would find additional votes- Its traditional vote bank is Muslim and Yadavs… Kurmis are likely to go INC/BSP way; Thakurs are likely to go BJP way; even Muslims are likely to go INC way (though SP is definitely gaining some Muslim votes from BSP… given a scepter of a possible BSP+BJP government)… so I don’t foresee SP gaining much additional votes to improve spectacularly… in fact it is going to lose a incremental vote bank from since 2007 and may gain only because of some split in votes.

    BSP, on the other hand, is also likely to lose a chunk of its vote bank especially the Forward Castes and Muslims. But it has played a master stroke by fielding high number of Muslims and FCs… and may still limit the damages. My hunch is that it would retain about 150 seats despite anti-incumbency.

    So if BSP and SP are losing votebank, then who gains it…. BJP does not appear to be gaining much it may see revival of its FC vote bank and some regional MBC vote bank but that is not the overall state picture…. this means that highest vote gains would be registered by INC+RLD combine.

    However… it is important to remember that though SP and BSP together would lose votes, they may not lose that many seats … they are conceding no more than 40-50 seats… and they are likely to get split up… between INC and BJP…

    So both parties are going to improve their tallies.

    BUT mark my words… at least one of them INC or BJP would be a big player in the 2014 elections in UP.

    Regards
29. black beak says:

    February 26, 2012 at 3:16 am

    Hi v2p: thanks for the reply. i politely disagree. my own view is that the SP will sweep this election. The SP did well in UP in the past 2-3 elections even there was a wave against that party. Now the wind behind its back, with the anti-incumbency feeling against the current BSP government, the SP is set to sweep the polls.

    Fact is that despite all the vote bank and caste calculations, the people vote decisively for the front runner and for development. The SP is the perceived party of choice. It is the front runner to replace Mayawati. I think the SP is a corrupt and criminal party but people’s memories are short and they somehow “hope” that Akhilesh Yadav is a reformer.

    I cannot guess how the other parties will fare.
    I just wish that the BJP does reasonably well and gets 80+ seats. However, I do not feel that will happen and the BJP leadership has itself to blame. If they had projected 1 individual – any individual the party would have probably got to the 80 seat mark a lot easier..Instead they ceded that space to the Congress…
30. chinmay says:

    February 26, 2012 at 9:00 am

    HI vp2.Your analysis lacks logic.SP is clearly the front runner and i can say rather firmly from the evidence i gathered after five phases of polls that SP is set to come back in a big way.Dont be surprised if mulayam touches 200 seats for that cant be ruled out at present.The intensity of anti maya wave and public perception that mulayam alone is capable of dethroning her is leading to a surge in his tally.

    Muslims definitely rallied behind SP in last four phases barring the first.If there is one region where SP cant hope to gain much its western UP.Else rest assured he is coming back riding a wave.BJP definitely has not fared well and is not getting the so called thakur vote which has overwhelming gone in favor of SP in many segments especially in eastern UP.

    The brahmin vote is divided but in rural areas even SP seems to have gone their vote in significant segments as brahmins like others joined hatao BSP abhiyaan.

    In urban seats BJP was preferred by brahmins while in rural areas SP and congress were favored by brahmins.

    There was no anti muslim quota backlash and i can give it in writing barring few urban patches.Even significant sections of OBC and MBC castes rallied behind mulayam while congress too seems to have their vote to some extent but not enough to make decisive impact.

    The mysterious surge in youth vote which was the missing link in this election has gone mainly in favor of SP due to akhilesh factor although media tried to portray it as rahul magic.BJP was clearly in race only in urban seats and heavily muslim dominated seats where polarization as usual takes place.Else in rest it was more of consolidation rather than polarization that BJP had expected.

    They clearly failed to understand this election and are paying the price.Kushwaha and uma factors are heavily hyped up ones but uma seems to have delivered to some extent in bundelkhand.

    BSP is biggest loser as is headed for a very big shock.My opinion is SP will get close to 180-190 seats and with a bit of luck come loose to 200.BSP has been deserted by all castes except jatavs and can muster only 85-90 seats.Congress will shore upto 50 seats while BJP can get only 35040 seats
31. chinmay says:

    February 26, 2012 at 11:15 am

    Many who are working and analyzing on UP political outcomes seem to have missed very crucial point with regard to the Muslim vote.In UP muslims account for close to 19% of the total population.But Muslims in UP are a highly caste based community just like their hindu counter parts.This time there has been a consistent argument that Muslim vote is splitting for first time and that the likely beneficiary of this is going to be BJP.

    But facts on ground suggest something else.In UP muslims vote as a unitary bloc only in defeating BJP but they dont overwhelmingly support any party like the jatavs or yadvas.But yes SP tends to get significant portion of Muslim vote due to the over zealous flaunting of its secular credentials.

    In UP muslims are organised into three layers.artisan groups like weavers,brass makers,carpenters etc are aljafis while the business class,educated middle class and rich are usually higher caste ashrafs.Both ashrafs and aljafis account for 80% of total muslim population.But the remaining 20% are pasmanda muslims dalit converts to islam.

    Pasamanda muslims in UP have generally supported BSP as they are low on caste ladder while ashrafs and aljafis have tended to support SP in great numbers followed by congress at distant second.

    This time peace party which is said to be getting significant share of Muslim vote is getting only support of lower caste pasmandas.I effect its effecting only BSP which propped it in first place .SO already weakening BSP is losing that usual 16-17% Muslim vote it gets every time.

    In last four phases ashrafs,aljafis rallied behind SP in good numbers.So net gainer could well only be SP
32. Nitin says:

    February 26, 2012 at 11:36 am

    when i talked to peoples in Bundelkhand region people there feel they should vote fo national parties. People are fed up with SP/BSP. So please take it for sure other than Yadavs no other group is voting en-block for SP. So its tally of 160+ is exaggerated.It can touch 120-130 at its best performance. Remember what has been its best result so far 142 at Ram temple peak when muslims voted only for SP in big way.So lets take out. I would not be surprised it SP comes to two digits
33. Enthusiast (@Blstrngbrnacles) says:

    February 26, 2012 at 11:50 am

    ok,
    When one gives factual analysis, people should take reason into account. I might listen to blackbeak and chinmay’s views, but, for their basic fact of completely discounting BJP.

    This is very similar to Yogendra yadav’s theory of showing, BJP is nowhere so, dont vote for BJP.

    Fact : BJP got 62 assembly seats in lok sabha 2009, which was a fairly bad time for them. Since, then, Khuswaha,Uma bharati will have added incremental votes at the very basic level. Also, one has to give some minor incremental credit to Ramdev[even 1-2% vote share] , who is more influential than Anna Hazare. The -ve from 2009 is that, RLD has left BJP to join congress. But, popular perception is that the Jats did not really do much for BJP in 2009, mebbe 3 assmebly seats and Agra lok sabha constituency. So, it is not that big a loss for BJP.

    Question is, will the Jats vote for congress because of the same OBC anger at salman khurshid and co. Right now, I’m inclined to believe Beni Prasad Varma was sabotaging Congress’s prospects. He must’ve realised his Kurmi vote is in trouble. So, have a OBC consolidation against congress after his Barabanki phase was through with his pro-muslim reservation statement. Also, Congress actions on the Muslim vote will not have helped them with Kurmis running away definitly[to whom, not sure].
34. v2p says:

    February 26, 2012 at 12:32 pm

    Dear Chinmay and Blackbeak,

    A would like to indicate a brilliant analysis of SP’s prospects in UP… http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/blogs/southasiamasala/2011/11/29/2012-uttar-pradesh-assembly-election-samajwadi-party%E2%80%99s-waterloo/

    If there is at all a UP wide surge for SP, I cannot fathom a reason… its rule in UP was so bad… that BSP’s rule looks spectacular in front of it (not great, when bench-marked against most of the states, though).

    Thakurs are more likely to vote against SP after Amar Singh incident… Kurmi have gone Beni way…. I cannot fathom a situation where Brahmins vote for SP barring those where SP has put up Brahmin candidates (but that happens to every party and eventually cancels out in the big picture).

    I believe that in this elections SP and INC are being over rated… both would improve their tallies but not profoundly… similarly, BSP and BJP are being under-rated… BSP would not be decimated, while BJP actually may actually improve its tally though not significantly (if it crosses 80, it would be a sort of miracle).

    Lets wait till 6th March… I stand by my tally BSP 150, SP 100, INC+RLD 85, BJP 65!!!
35. chinmay says:

    February 26, 2012 at 7:02 pm

    I have never suggested that since BJP seems to be on its way out in UP people shouldn’t vote for it.Indeed likes of yogendra yadav would do it not me.I am just presenting the facts which although look quite depressing are true to large extent.

    IOI have cross checked my data with information gathered by some journalists returning from field work in UP and they have mostly matched .What looks most unbelievable is brahmins especially in rural areas shedding their apathy towards SP.Thakurs have already shifted in large numbers to SP.

    The second surprising observation was the little impact that muslim quota issue was making despite efforts of BJP and congress accompanying indifference of people to it.Other OBCS and MBCS who are mot monolithic voting block in nature seem to have shifted in good numbers to SP and away from BSP.Congress too gained on this front a little but not too much.This can mainly be attributed to the contest whittling down to a jatav versus the rest where by OBCS and sections of MBCS were feeling sidelined in power structure. No gains have accrued to BJP on this part and this has been clearly established.The quota issue had some resonance in few urban patches nothing more than that

    Upper castes in UP have generally formed core constituency of BJP on whom it has built its edifice with support of other OBCS like kurmis,lodhs.But when the core vote shifts away or shows indifference it is sign of impending disaster.BJP is headed that way in UP.They clearly failed to understand this election and are now facing existential crisis in UP.The only silver lining seems to be the organisation still has some life in it when compared to that of congress for whose renewal rahul had to put up a lot of effort
36. Blabk Beak says:

    February 26, 2012 at 7:12 pm

    For starters i do wish v2p and Nitin are right and iam wrong. That is what my heart wants and i will be ecstatic if that happens.

    But fact is that people vote for the most likely alternative to the incumbent govt when they are unhappy and that is why the SP will sweep the polls with 200 – 300 seats. These caste math usually is a distraction from the main wave if you will.

    As i said i wish the BJP had projected a strong CM candidate.
    I just read Varun Gandhis interview and he is soo rightin saying that people vote for people. Good young man!!
37. FortuneCookie says:

    February 27, 2012 at 12:03 am

    SP’s at its peak has only got approx 180 seats. Not to forget the acute divide those days in caste politics and minority votes. People in recent times have started to vote outside the caste politics. I don’t believe that Thakurs, Brahmins vote en masse to one party unlike SC’s and Muslims. In today’s context Muslim vote is greatly divided between INC, SP, BSP and new parties on UP’s political map. That takes away the advantage that Muslim vote gives to one party. So in all these contexts even though from media reports it may seem that SP has a wave, it is not going to result in SP being the single largest party. My projection is that they will take home 120-130 seats.

    BSP will be routed but will still hold the tag of single largest party. BSP has fielded maximum FC’s and Muslim candidates in constituencies where that matters. Add to it the negative or no support it had from media in 2007 elections and you know what I am saying. BSP will run home with approx 125-140 seats.

    Uma Bharti, Kushwaha, Ramdev, BJP’s own campaigning, anti incumbency, positive shift in vote percentage and forward block strong support will ensure that BJP wins atleast 90-100 seats.

    INC, no matter what media writes endlessly about Rahul Gandhi’s waves and his haathi paisa kha gaya comment. Congress would be booked under 50. It may be heartening for them to know that they did better than there last outing in 2007. But, they don’t have the base in ground to snatch more than 50 seats. They can say in 2017 elections that they have now been out of power for 27 years.
38. Mashes says:

    February 27, 2012 at 10:33 pm

    Dont have time to look at each comment, some of which are certainly passionate, someone spent money to do a survey, WOW.

    Has anyone been keeping a tab on the bookies?,

    As per M J Akbar who i believe is one of our best neutral political journos, says in his recent article in IndiaToday.

    ”
    Bookies have a better feel for ground reality than astrologers or journalists. On February 21 they were offering even bets on these figures: 120-130 seats for SP; 100-110 for BSP; 80-90 for BJP; and 50-60 for Congress. If this is true, then the past still has some claim on the present.
    “
39. Dinipc says:

    March 1, 2012 at 9:42 pm

    I think the final figures will be pretty close to the Bookies’ figures. Hail the Indian bookies – the biggest black-money churners!

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