OpEd in the Pioneer with my take on the outcome in Uttar Pradesh dailypioneer.com/columnists/ite… (blame the editors for the title
)—
Offstumped (@offstumped) March 06, 2012
Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.
That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.
That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.
That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.
That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.
But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?
In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.
Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:
He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!
In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.
While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.
No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.
There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.
Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.
What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.
The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !
Postscript:
- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.
Tailpiece:
- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party
Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi
Reasons, excuses, explanations, they are all applicable to defeat, no one has to explain victory, for it speaks for itself.
Yoss,
Just one observation to make. Last time, it was Mayawati grabbing 200+ seats, with Mulayam being reduced to around 100 seats. This time, the trends have more or less reversed. The BJP and the Congress are making no significant impact (the few seats Congress has gained can be more attributed to Cong-RLD alliance arithmetic than anything else). Is UP becoming a northern Tamil Nadu with both national parties becoming irrelevant? Is that what the future portends?
albatrossinflight
What happened to your analysis on BJP swinging it to second place? You gave your prediction based on some calculations done in your mind sitting in your room which has turned out to be your death knell. Henceforth, stop wasting your time and others by writing long essays and instead go to the state to base your predictions. Excellent result and BJP has bitten the dust in all places. In UP, they are becoming irrelevant and in U’Khand congress will win. Manipur has been won by congress while goa victory is too insignificant. Punjab was primarily a victory for badals. BJP is finished.
Albatrossinflight, be a lit humble and accept that yours was mere arm-chair analysis, minus any field trips, and filled with a lot of biasedness.
Lone Ranger,
I think hate of the BJP should not make you gloss over losses of congress in UK, Punjab and Goa. If you think Goa is insignificant so is Manipur. If BJP is finished then so is the congress which has come 4th in UP!! Your Rahul Baba turned out to be a bigger zero. 250 meetings and marginal improvement in tally because of the RLD. BJP at least has a Modi to unleash, what does the congress have? Goongi gudiya part 2?
I have been vindicated.Those who spewed venom on me for saying that SP was set to sweep the elections are now hiding their faces.Where is bala.Where have you run away.You claimed that i had no election data and was writing long stories.Where have you disappeared and what about the fate of your BJP
Dear Chinmay,
Congrats! I was way off the mark by predicting BSP at 150 and SP at 115…. I take a bow! (Though, I never had any venom for you).
The results need to be analyzed… not only by BJP and INC but also by SP and BSP. SP, apparently, is being handed over a rainbow mandate quite akin to Nitish Kumar… it needs to deliver. I am hopeful that it thinks out of the box and makes Akhilesh Yadav the CM… MSY can play bigger roles in the center by either joining UPA or resurrecting the Third Front.
It also begs a question- is Third Front possible… the only hitch being that SP and BSP cannot come together, TMC and CPM cannot come together, AIADMK and DMK cannot come together… rest all makes sense… !
Hi all – unfortunate day today. This is what i thought would happen. How i wish i was wrong and albatross and others were right
If anything it dispels the myth that backroom play is all that is needed. Fact is you need a face at the local level and the BJP will hopefully learn anf project Modi as the PM candidate early in 2013
Intrestinglu, in Pilibhit assembly constituencies – BJP won just 1. The rest went to SP.
Varun could not win his own stronghold.
Hi Chinmay, bala is licking someone’s arse
Agree with most commenters above. Albatrossinflight has lost all his credibility. He didn’t have ANY idea what was going on in UP. He was basing too much of his hopes on Kushwaha!!! Now Kushwaha can rest in peace in some jail somewhere.
Albatrossinflight is guilty of overestimating BJP chances like any avid supporter. His analysis was solid.
But, the Khuswaha factor has helped. It has not translated into seats, but votes in the Bundelkhand area. As a matter of fact, BJP was 4th there last 2 elections. They’re close 2nds in most places.
Fact is the so-called upper caste leaders have failed.
a) aditya Gorakhnath
b) Varun Gandhi
c) Kalraj Mishra
Only Murli Manohar Joshi has done well in Varanasi.
Ghaziabad was never BJP. It was pure Rajnath singh. Obviously, some sabotage happened.
Bottomline we need a new leader. Someone young and reliable. Akhilesh shows maturity and talks substance,much better than rahul gandhi.
We need someone similar in BJP. Kalraj Mishra, Rajnath singh need to go. BJP Upper caste leaders have CM dreams, but, no capacity to work. They need to be shown the door.
@Enthusiast
Absolutely on target. Kalraj Mishra, Rajnath singh need to go. I’m not going to have any castist insinuation but they are dragging BJP. Somebody with raw energy and with head on his shoulder (not a Varun Gandhi) is needed.
sorry if it sounded casteist. My apologies for the insuniation. UP elections have a way of making us sound like this.
Point is , Look for a transparent and young leader.
SP goondas have already started goondaaism in UP at Jhansi.Scores of journalists held hostage after CB Yadav lost & want recount.Similar story in Moradabad, Meerut & Firozabad
Yatha raja tatha Praja.UPites deserve the goondas they have selected.
YADAV GOONDA RAJ IS ALREADY HERE.ENJOY UPITES . U DESERVE MULAYAM SINGH,SHIVPAL SINGH YADAB BROTHERS TOGETHER IN CORRUPTION,& GOONDAISM
BE READY FOR SIMILAR GOONDA RAJ FOR NEXT 5 YEARS
Dear Offstumped,
I have been reading your blog for a long time and you do not seem to follow your own analysis to its logical end .. You have been right in
1) Saying that all states are going bipolar
2) Federalism Power. Powers within states and local factors being a lot more important than Delhi.
1 and 2 means that only parties with a credible state leaders and presences can win. Today proved that. Sure you can call BJP a supra regional party, But so is the congress – actually its a supra regional party with fewer states. So is the CPM and so on.
So now 2014 will be determined by the best agglomeration of regional and supra regional parties. Thats how its been from the mid 90s.
The biggest block which will determine the national leadership is along the east coast of India. Call this the eastern command or the new East India company… From TN with Jayalalitha, AP with CBN, Orissa with Patnaik, WB with Mamata and Assam with Praful whatever. You could also include Bihar and Nitish Kumar.
All these parties are frenemies with the BJP, but honestly they determine their own fate.
There are 2 ways forward, The eastern command can try to create a third front, whats new this time is the CPM will most definitely not be a part of this front – thanks to Mamata di. SP depending on the cards can join this front, same with NCP and maybe even MNS and if not SP, then the BSP can join this front. Will this front be bigger than the NDA? Lets just say its a close call. But the existence of this front helps the Congress – a lot.
Or the eastern command can join the NDA. The pound of flesh they demand will be massive and severe. And it will not really be the NDA that we are used to. If this front happens. Delhi – here comes the NDA / East India Company. The congress in its crippled state is dead in the water (remember the Congress is looking at losses in AP, Maharashtra and possibly Rajasthan) BJP is looking at losses in Karnataka.
We do not have a good way to know how elections are won or lost. Thats because the opinion polling in our country sucks so much. We often ascribe wrong motives to the victors post facto. So in 2009 NAREGA was given the credits of Congress’ victory while in reality it was the absence of the NDA and alliances for the BJP. two fronts against the congress split the votes.
Sad to say this but Mr. Modi’s (who I admire a lot) fate is dependent on the allies. If Naveen Patnaik says no modi – then thats the way it will be. And so Modis pmship prospects in 2014 look bleak. Nagpur and Delhi has no remote control, the remote is with the Eastern command.
UP was lost the minute the command decided to replace Kalyan Singh. What you are seeing is the slow ramifications of that event. What each state is moving to is two dedicated fronts with strong state level leaders. Congress suffers if this trend continues. Not too sure how the BJP will react to it …
I do not know what prospects the national parties have in these bipolar states with strong state presences. The only new force in TN politics is Vijaykanth and he also requires 10 years or so to get a foothold. For all the MNS hype – it does not win many seats. PrajaRajyam died a quick death.
In the short term the national level parties have to rediscover humility. This is not the US. The Congress are not the democrats and the BJP is not the republican party. This is not China with one emperor/ress This sir is India – land of many kingdoms and many kings.
So BJP has to go to allies with a begging bowl. And give them command if it wants Delhi for 2014. Long term ? What long term?
And most of this follows straight from your own analysis !
Dont enjoy the language – begging bowl and all that. But, basic thrust is that,
a) Do we want a rightist regime, economically and socially?
b) Do we want a BJP with all it’s faults?
I would like to see Congress dislodged. The next lok sabha should be about bringing congress below 100 . Rest, With Communists not around, I like the 3rd front possibility.
The failure of BJP is due to very basic principle of Indian caste system!!
Like How OBCs can not go hand in hand with Dalits, The upper castes can not go hand in hand with OBCs. This is the reason behind constant decline of BJP in UP!! Kalyan was ousted from BJP due to upper caste and OBC fight!!
In 2007, Upper castes voted to Dalits to oust OBC dominated SP!! Now, The same upper castes voted to Mulayam as BJP is seen by upper castes as the OBC oriented party!!
Of course, Upper castes are notoriously vote for winning party to stay in power always.
The above 2 points holds equal weightage.
(@Blstrngbrnacles) sorry if the language offended, did not mean to . I would also like to see a strong and economically right government at the centre in 2014. I think Congress has lost the 2014 elections as of today and to win it needs to create this third front. Oh if it gets inflation under control and the country growing again with no more scams, it will suddenly be a strong contender. With pet schemes like Right to Food. I dont think they have a chance.
The tsunami did hit Uttar Pradesh as predicted by Yogendra Yadav, for once CSDS seems to have got everything right; the sample size, raw data analysis and also cutting out the noise. Probably the only thing that they have erred on is actual seat conversion, for I think the actual vote share of the Samajwadis has been closer to 30% and if it were to be 34% (as predicted in the post-poll survey), then the SP would have been closer to 300.
I humbly concede that my ground reports went wrong, in some cases even drastically wrong, so I take all of your comments in my stride. As a BJP supporter it was quite disappointing, but even more disappointing was that the people of UP had such a limited choice. Having said that, most of us tend to make sweeping generalizations in victory and come up with knee-jerk reactions in defeat. No matter what happened in Goa, Punjab or Uttarakhand, UP was a big defeat for BJP, notwithstanding Rahul Gandhi’s humiliation in the assembly elections. Let us not gloat over the Congress’ dismal performance vis-à-vis BJP, which seems to have done better in 3 states. Instead let us just look at the factors responsible for BJP’s fate in UP.
BJP has actually lost votes in comparison to last time, a fact that has surprised me more than anyone else. I had all along maintained that 2007 was BJP’s worst case scenario and that it cannot go any lower, but it seems that the party has not yet bottomed out. To be fair to my own analysis, apart from the 47 that it won, there were 40 other seats in which BJP was a strong contender and lost them by margins of lesser than 10 thousand votes. But that is hardly any consolation, as apart from these 90 odd seats BJP was almost completely decimated in the rest of the state. Surprisingly, the Congress, although their seat conversion ratio was worse than BJP, has emerged as a third pole of the state behind SP & BSP in most areas. To that extent we must appreciate Rahul Gandhi’s efforts. If this trend is not arrested in the next 2 years BJP may yield what little ground it has left in the state to the Congress.
The 6 factors:
1. The two party polarization of Uttar Pradesh: this has now become so evident across the state that other national parties are becoming irrelevant in large tracts of the state. This phenomenon of south India like polarization between the two principle parties had already shown (in 2007) its ability to breach the caste-divide by voting across the board in favour of Mayawati. This time, it has gone a step further by bringing in hitherto implausible caste coalitions. For instance, Brahmins in the rural areas and Thakurs across the state have voted for the Samajwadis this time. What is more, even a section of Jats have dumped the RLD in western UP and have voted for SP.
2. Delimitation: this has had a significant effect on some 200 seats by redistributing the ‘Muslim vote’. This is the reason why BJP has been unable to win many seats despite the so-called division of Muslim vote, now the threshold of polarization required for BJP to win seats has increased. A few examples are the Ayodhya seat, the seats in Allahabad, a few seats in the Gorakhpur belt and eastern UP. This is also going to adversely affect BSP (it already has in 2009 and now) unless Mayawati is able to create a Dalit-Muslim coalition in the near future. [This was first pointed out to me before the elections by someone close to the Mahant, we did not take it seriously then, now am planning to come up with a research paper on this in a few months… any help on this from any of you would be appreciated].
3. No party face: This one is pretty obvious, BJP has done well in the other 3 states where it had a chief-ministerial candidate and it did make a positive difference. Uma Bharati should have been declared as the chief minister at least 3 months before the elections without worrying about the blackmail tactics of the local leaders
4. Internal sabotage: There were always rumours that the former national president of the BJP and former chief minister had stuck some kind of a deal with the SP even before the elections began. He sabotaged the party’s chances everywhere he was responsible for giving the tickets. Will the BJP be bold enough and initiate action against him? This is not the first time he has done this, how long can he be given the benefit of doubt? There were many smaller level rebellions too, like the Mahant working against the BJP’s chances in at least 4 seats in the Gorakhpur belt or the Brahminical misdemeanours of Kalraj Mishra & Lalji Tandon. To that extent, Sanjay Joshi did not succeed in bringing them all on board.
5. Lack of alliance: Kalyan Singh hurt the BJP in a dozen seats directly. Had the BJP forced its local leaders to swallow their egos to have an understanding with Kalyan Singh’s outfit, together they could have made it in at least 20 seats (Uma Bharati was for such an alliance). The same is true with the case of Apna Dal, just because the alliance failed last time doesn’t mean you completely ignore the whole idea. AD could have helped BJP in at least a dozen seats. These small alliances limited to some 50-60 seats could have made a crucial difference of 4 to 5% at the end of the day.
6. NAMO: The fourth risk of Gadkari the strategist was one too many. Now some people are trying to justify Modi’s absence as having shielded him from criticism of non-performance as the UP result wouldn’t have been any better even otherwise – they point out how Rahul has lost all his charm and how NAMO mystique is still intact. But the election data points to the exact opposite. In quite a few seats QED, Peace Party & other Islamic parties have ended up in the top 3 and yet BJP has not done well in these seats, because of lack of counter Hindu polarization. The lesson to be learnt here is that polarization is good for BJP (as past experience shows), it is more important than avoidance of tactical Muslim voting – Bihar model cannot be replicated elsewhere. The anti-9% Muslim quota discourse of UP election lacked the NAMO punch! The sooner the BJP & the RSS decide on NAMO the better it is for all the stake-holders in India’s right-wing future.
These are some of my initial thoughts. We have to analyse the defeat threadbare in the course of time and work out a strategy to put India’s Right on the right track, am sure Offstumped and others would take the lead in this regard. Time for me to take leave and disappear back into the Himalayas.
@albatrossinflight – with perspective, I think, BJP should’ve planned based on 2009 lok sabha elections.
I will be happy to help you with research. I will say, how come Ramdev did not work in favour of BJP, but, the Mahants worked against it
Hi All – Fact is that this was going to be the SP’s election all the way. I mentioned 225-250 seats and I wish I was soo wrong.
But for all of you who are angry and disappointed this is what I would suggest:
1. This is a wave in favor of the SP.
2. We should not make any changes to the organization structure on the ground. After a lot of hard hard work, Gadkari and Joshi built together a booth level organization. Do not fix what is NOT broken.
3. Believe it or not if MP elections are held tomorrow in UP, the BJP will probably win 25-35 seats. The people are not stupid. And 2+2= 22 in politics.
4. The BJP should get over being Congress Lite. It should have the guts to project a PM candidate. And today the most popular person in the BJP is Modi. Advani – who I respect – is old and frankly Sushma, Jaitley and Gadkari are all back room boys.
For 2014 – the bjp will go to polls with a huge anti-incumbency factor against the SP in the state and the congress in the center. In its favor it would have a good organisation structure if they continue to build on this and not finger point at each other. They will need a charisamtic face to seal the deal.
Enough said!!
Coming back to the blog after long time. Just couple of irrelevant comments
1. The Nature of SP’s win raises questions about the hype about Mayawati’s rainbow coalition of 2007. Was she beneficiary of shrewd social engineering as everyone has claimed ad nauseam since, or version 0 of what happened today? Maybe she was never the grand strategist she was made out to be.
2. BJPs failure in UP is on first pass a natural product of weak local leadership. But as obvious as it maybe, the arc of its electoral trajectory across the country is stunningly proportional to the average age of its local leadership. Lalji tandon? Vijay Malhotra? really? Its easy to dismiss this as naive, lazy, one dimensional thinking — but there’s too much evidence now to ignore. Young leaders may not win, but old foggies definitely don’t.
Last, for all residents of delhi, time to hide your daughters! Noida and ghaziabad are only 20 mins away. Long live goondaraaj… (and the infinitely wise indian voter)
atleast one can fault gadkari for wrong streatgies but not for intentions….minimum BJP need to do after huge UP defeat is 2 show ppl like rajnath singh and ananth kumar der place as they r no more den a wheeler-dealer…rajanath singh is wholly responsible for creating factional during d time he was president n he continues to do that..sooner d bJP realizes nunace value of this person, its bettr for them..
only gud thing i see in UP for bJP (as i am perenially optimistic
) is the entry of uma bharti in state assembly..now, at least BJP has got sme1 credible in d assembly to take on SP n atlst gain sme sort of mindshare(esp givn maya wudnt b in assmbly)…thgh uma is nt d face which will invite UP voters to bjp n dey will need real issues n a credible leader to recover any grounds there..at best uma can play same role which mulayam played for akhilesh yadav..radical overhauling required esp in UP if BJP wants to retain even its 10 seats won in parlmnt elctn
BJP lost it the day it didnt pay heed to Govindacharya’s advice to change its Chaal Charitra Chehra… that is behavior, character and face. He was able to foresee the way BJP was drifting…. and the future.
Till about mid 2000s, it had a charismatic leader in Vajpayee to hold its stock together… but now even that is gone. It has compromised way too much for the sake of being in power.
The recipe for a long march forward needs a serious overhaul and probably giving up claim for 2014…. which in any case seems to be hopelessly hung and in favor of a nebulous Third Front.
1. Start developing yourself as an alternative in marginal states… Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisa, AP, Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K, Asom etc.
2. Develop alliances only based on real-camaraderie and not based on social engineering, or attempts to defeat somebody.
3. Start projecting new faces… the old faces are too discredited… its very much necessary in places like UP. New faces dont mean young… it means those who can connect, who generate positive vibes. For example… Rajnath Singh, whatever his stature, doesnt generates positive vibes… ask the people, cadre if in doubt.
4. Have a national face… if not Modi then go for a charismatic face in NDA… Nitish Kumar. This would only strengthen NDA and the basic premise of coalition politics.
Otherwise I dont see BJP getting back to its heydays in near future (10 years time frame)
I agree with most of the comments of v2p except the Nitish Kumar one. I do not consider him a good administrator at all. Just check his track record as a Railways minister.
But yes if these back room people like Gadkari, Jaitley, Sushma still live in a cocoon and try to contain Modi then they will just end up hurting themselves and give the leadership to Nitish on a platter.
The other point is that if there is any state that the BJP should focus on right now it is Orissa. That state has 21 seats and no opposition!!
Can we get the caste wise break down of voting pattern in UP 2012?
The BJP needs its own Kamaraj Plan by which all its tall leaders go into their respective constituencies & work to improve the grassroots. This can only be done over 2-3 years of intense work …….. BJP must start to do this immediately if it wants to have a realistic chance of retaining power at the Centre.
BJP’s cup of sorrow is full in UP now.It can only get better from such a low.How about poll tie up with Maya for 2014? By that time SP could get more unpopular,thanks to those goons getting axtive again. Congress in any case will get worse.Myopic BJP leadership of UP has no option but to get closer to BSP to be worth atleast 40 Lok sabha seats in 2014 if not more.
the worst thing for the BJP to do is tie up with the BSP. actually the late pramod mahajan is to be blamed for creating frankensteins in orissa (BJD) and bihar (samata party and now JD-U).
the bjp leadership is far from myopic. they are 80% there and just need to continue the good work and get modi or somebody as the PM candidate for 2014.
the BJP is on a very strong wicket for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in UP. btw – if people have read my posts I had predicted a sweep for mulayam in UP. i predict that with the right PM candidate (Modi) and the right organisation work backed by the right local candidate can help BJP win some 35 seats in UP.
And some more reasons behind SP sweep is that:
1)Yadavs completely stood behind SP as they fear that, BJP or Cong might split OBC quota. They sensed, BSP is loosing and they voted en mass for SP.
2)Jatavs voted for SP as they too sensed that, Cong or BJP might split SC quota. They sensed BSP is loosing and they voted for SP.
3)Muslims feared BJP come back. So, they didn’t want to waste their vote by voting Cong. So, they voted SP en Mass.
4) Thakurs Completely voted for SP. Reason might be, sidelining of Rajnath Singh by BJP. Another reason, Akhilesh’s wife is a thakur. So, this might also helped SP.
5)Brahmins always vote for winning party. So, They voted for SP.
Things BJP needs to do in UP:
1)Project a Face and give her/him a free hand. Let him/her call the shots in the party. It will surely help BJP in UP.
2)Its good news that Uma won from charkari. Let her give free hand and be the face of Non Yadav OBC group.
3)As per Arun Jaitly, He said, BJP invested for future in UP. So, I guess, BJP will project Uma as their face no matter what.
4)Let Uma create a 15% Non Yadav OBC core vote bank for BJP. What ever comes after will be a plus.
5)BJP should not think Upper castes as their core vote bank. Upper castes can not be a core vote bank in any state!! They sit on the wall and jump to the side of winning candidate!!
6)Start creating more Naqvis in UP!! I really dont understand, Why only Naqvi is the face of BJP in UP!! BJP should recruit more and more Naqvis!!
The bottom line:
Project Uma as CM candidate now, and let her create 15% Non Yadav OBC vote base fo BJP. Another 10-15% will come very easily from others.
@Black Beak , I agree, BJP can really get ost of the 21 seats in Odisha. There is no opposition there and D place place for congress in Odisha is the last position after all independents. BJP just needs to get a honest hard-working face to exploit D 15-years of anti-incumbancy against BJD
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