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Politics and Public Policy in India

April 28, 2012 • 7:47 pm 3

Nobody cares for Bangaru Lakshman

Tehelka Magazine for posterity will go down in the history books as the tainted organization that Institutionalized a destructive and negative political culture of entrapment and stings to settle political scores.

The images of Bangaru Lakshman’s awkward handling of hard cash on national television have made him an unfair example to tout. To Mr. Lakshman’s credit he took the trial by media in stride without making it about Dalit victimhood.

But 10 years later the Lakshman sentencing by a lower court in Delhi says much about how broken and flawed our Justice system can be coonsidering that in the same Court system the moral axis was reversed in the Cash for Votes sting case with the whistleblowers being tried as the guilty parties while the alleged beneficiaries walk scott free. From the Abhishek Singhvi CD episode to these two starkly contrasting sting cases what we see is a vitiated political atmosphere in Delhi that has left the lower court system politically compromised.

There is Justice in Bangaru Lakshman’s conviction for he acted without the ethical Judgment expected of a National Party President. There is however no Justice in this 4 year sentence for it inflicts more injury on Bangaru Lakshman than Bangaru Lakshman ever inflicted. In fact Bangaru Lakshman inflicted no injury at all on anyone in this fictitious crime while paying a steep personal price for 10 years and rightly so.

Today Bangaru Lakshman is friendless but that may also be because he dared to go where no BJP President ever went with these remarks in 2000:

BJP must rework its axis with Muslims

The episode also says much of what the BJP has become in Delhi with its culture of foisting Party Presidents from nowhere (the current incumbent included) and the manner in which it gets animated against the Congress whenever a scandal makes news. The BJP may be right that the conviction is Mr. Lakshman’s personal matter but it says much that it cannot speak out on the travesty that his 4 year Sentence is.

On a personal note I met Bangaru Lakshman once, while being familiar with his role in local politics growing up around Hyderabad. His rise to Party President was a surprise given an otherwise lackluster political career but his inaugural speech in August of 2000 in Nagpur showed much promise – a Dalit at the helm of BJP who dared to challenge conventional wisdom on engaging the Muslim community.

“The BJP has not yet become the preferred party of governance in the eyes of the people,” Laxman, who took over as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s first Dalit president today, said in his presidential address to the National Council which began its two-day session here.

Emphasising the need for reworking the relationship between the party and Muslims in the country, he said “the party has not made sustained efforts to reach out to Indian Muslims in a bid to weaken the influence on their minds of the sustained negative propaganda of our adversaries.”

Lakshman said, “We have somehow taken it for granted that our party will not receive any significant support from them. This preconceived approach has not helped our party either. We cannot afford to allow this situation to continue. If we do so, we shall be hurting our own future prospects and Muslims will continue to be used as vote banks by our adversaries.”

Bangaru Lakshman’s fall hence was a huge personal disappointment as well.

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Atal Bihari Vajpayee

March 6, 2012 • 10:32 am 34

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

March 6, 2012 • 12:00 am 9

Uttar Pradesh Results 2012 – Live Blogging

Many reputations are on the line as Uttar Pradesh and the other states count their votes.

Will the tsunami predicted for the Samajwadi Party by CNN-IBN and CSDS’ Yogendra Yadav manifest in a near absolute majority ?

Will Punjab persist with its flip-flop trend of voting out incumbents ?

Will Uttarakhand go the way of Goa and other small states from stable bipolarity to unstable multipolarity ?

Will Manohar Parrikar make a comeback in Goa ?

Finally who among the BJP, BSP and Congress will end up with bragging rights if not prizes for coming second, third and fourth in Uttar Pradesh ?

Follow Offstumped live during the coverage of the counting of votes in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa at the below:

More updates as the day unfolds …..

For the complete archive of the full coverage of Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012 so far including pre-poll and post poll podcasts, all OpEds, all BlogPosts and the detailed phase wise, seat by seat analysis click here.

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Internet Hindus, Live Events, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped on Twitter, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

February 16, 2012 • 6:00 am 3

Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012 – Phase 3 analysis

56 seats went to polls in the third phase for the Uttar Pradesh assembly on February 15th. The initial estimates in turnout at 56-57% are tad lower than the 60+% turnout reported in phase 1 and phase2.

Below is a historical analysis with the usual caveats on delimitation and first time voters.

While the turnout in this phase may appear relative to the first two phases, it becomes clear from the historical data below that a majority of the seats in the phase have traditionally seen lower turnouts. Also if one looks at the 2009 data there is a large number of close contests correlated to seats with low turnouts. Hence the relative spike in turnout in this phase can be hugely significant.

It clearly was a SP versus BSP battle with few congress pocket-boroughs and BJP strongholds. This phase also highlights of how BJP lost ground over successive elections to SP and BSP.

184. Jagdishpur (SC) – Has one of the worst historic records on turnout. Till 1991 turnout did not cross 35%. In 2002 it peaked at 52%. Saw turnouts as low as 18% in the past. Rahul Gandhi of course lead here in 2009 massively but look at how low the turnout was in Amethi in 2009 – 45%

185. Gauriganj – same story here of historically low turnouts, peaked in 2002 at 57%, flipped from BJP to congress. Also part of Amethi

186. Amethi -turnouts have swung wildly going as low as 34% to as high as 78%. flip-flopped between bjp and congress. strangely in 2002 Rahul polled 20k less votes here compared to previous two seats.

187. Isauli – turnout trended between mid-40s and mid-50s. fickle seat went to all parties over the years. In 2009 Sanjay Singh lead here with 49% turnout.

188. Sultanpur – same as issauli on historic turnout trends but interesting to note in 2009 Sanjay Singh’s margin was only 9000 votes ahead of BJP.

189. Sadar – New delimited seat, Sanjay Singh lead formidably in 2009.

190. Lambhua – new delimited seat, sanjay singh lead in 2009

191. Kadipur (SC) – Historically turnout trends mid50s past few elections. flipped between BJP and BSP. formidable Sanjay Singh lead in 2009

251. Sirathu – historically low turnouts between 30s and low 40s. Peaked in 2002 at 50%, consistently BSP. In 2009 SP lead narrowly after abysmal 39% turnout.

252. Manjhanpur (SC) – historically low turnouts and trends as in Sirathu.  BSP lead here in 2009, turnout 39% in LS seat.

253. Chail – low turnouts once again mid 30s-mid 40s, highest being 50%. SP lead here narrowly in 2009 (39% turnout)

254. Phaphamau – new delimited seat, BSP lead narrowly in 2009 by 2000 votes. Abysmal turnout in 2009 38%

255. Soraon (SC) – historical tunrouts in mid-50s, flipped between BSP and BJP. In 2009 BSP lead marginally by 1000 votes (38% turnout)

256. Phulpur -mid to high 50s turnout, trended congress, SP lead narrowly in 2009 by 4k votes (38% turnout)

257. Pratappur – turnout in high 50s historically flipped across all parties over the years, SP won narrowly with 5k votes in 2009, low turnout of 43%

258. Handia – high 50s to mid 60s turnout, flipped across parties, in 2009 SP lead narrowly by 2k votes (43% turnout)

259. Meja – mid 50s turnout past few cycles, CPM seat over the years, in 2009 SP lead narrowly by 5k votes (43% turnout)

260. Karachhana – mid 50s turnout, trended SP, lead in 2009 as well (43%)

261.Allahabad West – abysmal turnouts historically 30-40%, went from SP to Apna Dal to BSP over the years, BSP lead in 2009 by 10k votes (38% turnout)

262.Allahabad North – same story on turnout but trended BJP, went Congress in 2009 4-way split narrow margin (38% turnout)

263.Allahabad South – same story on turnouts, bjp stronghold speaker KN Tripathi, SP lead narrowly by 4k votes in 2009 (43% turnout)

264. Bara (SC) – wild swings in turnouts from high 40s, high 50s to high 70 in 1996, bsp stronghold flipped to BJP. In 2009 SP lead narrowly by 3k votes (43% turnout)

265. Koraon (SC) – new delimited seat, sp lead in 2009 (43% turnout)

364. Badlapur – new delimited seat, bsp in 2009 46 turnout

365. Shahganj – mid 40s to mid 50s turnout, flipped across parties. BSP in 2009, 46% turnout

366. Jaunpur – mid 40s to mid 50s turnout, flipped across parties, BSP in 2009, 46% turnout

367. Malhani – new delimited seat, BSP in 2009 (46% turnout)

368.Mungra Badshahpur – new delimited seat, BSP in 2009 (46% turnout)

369. Machhlishahr (SC) – mid 40s to mid 50s turnout, flipped from SP to BSP, SP lead in 2009 (abysmally low turnout 41%)

370. Mariyahu – low to mid 50s turnout, SP stronghold, lead in 2009 by 9k (41% turnout)

371. Zafrabad – new delimited seat, bsp lead narrowly by 2k (41% turnout)

372. Kerakat (SC) – low turnout historically high 30s to high 40s, trended BJP. In 2009 BSP lead narrowly by 5k (41% turnout)

380.Mughalsarai – mid 40s to mid 50s turnout, flipped from BJP to SP, in 2009 SP lead narrowly by 4k votes (46% turnout)

381. Sakaldiha – new delimited seat, in 2009 SP lead narrowly by 4k votes (46% turnout)

382. Saiyadraja - new delimited seat, in 2009 BSP lead narrowly by 3k votes (46% turnout)

383. Chakia (SC) – high 50s turnout even touching 62 in 2002, flipped between SP, BJP. In 2009 BSP lead narrowly by 2k votes (49.3% turnout)

384. Pindra – new delimited seat, SP lead narrowly by 3k votes (41% turnout)

385.Ajagara (SC) – new delimited seat, BSP lead narrowly by 2k votes (46% turnout in 2009)

386. Shivpur – new delimited seat, BSP lead narrowly by 4k votes (46% turnout)

387. Rohaniya – new delimited seat, BSP don Mukhtar Ansari lead MM Joshi in 2009 by less than 2k votes (low turnout 42%)

388. Varanasi North – declining trend in turnout dipped to 30s in 2002, flipped from BJP to SP. MM Joshi lead BSP by less than 7k votes (low 42% turnout)

389. Varanasi South – declining trend in turnout dipped to 30s 1996 and 2002. BJP stronghold, maintained lead in 2009 (42% turnout)

390. Varanasi Cantt.  – declining trend in turnout dipped to 30s in 2002. BJP stronghold, maintained lead in 2009 (42%)

391. Sevapuri – new delimited seat, SP lead BSP narrowly by 6k votes, MMJoshi trailed 4th behind BSP and Apna Dal (42% turnout)

392. Bhadohi – high 40s to low 50s turnout historically, flipped across parties. BSP lead narrowly in 2009 with 6k votes (43% turnout)

393. Gyanpur – mid to high 50s turnout, flipped BSP to BJP to SP, in 2009 BSP lead narrowly by 3k votes (43% turnout)

394. Aurai (SC) – mid to high 50s turnout, flipped from BJP to BSP (2009 bsp lead by 10k votes, 43% turnout)

395.Chhanbey (SC) – high 40s to mid-50s turnout historically, flipped between BJP and BSP. In 2009 BSP lead narrowly by 5k votes (high 52% turnout for 2009 election)

396. Mirzapur – high 40s to high 50s turnout flipped from BJP to SP. In 2009 BJP lead narrowly by 6k votes (high 52% turnout)

397. Majhawan – new delimited seat, BSP lead in 2009 (high 52% turnout) (Unclear if old Majhwa seat refers to the same name, EC is notorious in being inconsistent with english spellings of seats in UP. historically hight turnouts in this one high 50s to even low 60s – flipped between BSP and BJP).

398. Chunar – turnout in high 50s touching even 60, bjp stronghold. SP lead here in 2009 (high 52% turnout)

399. Marihan – new delimited seat, SP lead here in 2009 (52% turnout)

400.Ghorawal – new delimited seat, SP lead here in 2009 46% turnout

401. Robertsganj – mid 40s to low 50s turnout flipped BJP to SP. With less than 2k lead for SP in 2009 (46% turnout)

402.Obra – new delimited seat, SP lead narrowly by 4k votes in 2009 (46% turnout)

403. Duddhi (SC) – mid 40s to low 50s turnout, SP stronghold, comfortable lead in 2009 as well (46% turnout)

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, Offstumped, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

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