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Politics and Public Policy in India

March 6, 2012 • 10:32 am 34

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

March 6, 2012 • 12:00 am 9

Uttar Pradesh Results 2012 – Live Blogging

Many reputations are on the line as Uttar Pradesh and the other states count their votes.

Will the tsunami predicted for the Samajwadi Party by CNN-IBN and CSDS’ Yogendra Yadav manifest in a near absolute majority ?

Will Punjab persist with its flip-flop trend of voting out incumbents ?

Will Uttarakhand go the way of Goa and other small states from stable bipolarity to unstable multipolarity ?

Will Manohar Parrikar make a comeback in Goa ?

Finally who among the BJP, BSP and Congress will end up with bragging rights if not prizes for coming second, third and fourth in Uttar Pradesh ?

Follow Offstumped live during the coverage of the counting of votes in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa at the below:

More updates as the day unfolds …..

For the complete archive of the full coverage of Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012 so far including pre-poll and post poll podcasts, all OpEds, all BlogPosts and the detailed phase wise, seat by seat analysis click here.

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Internet Hindus, Live Events, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped on Twitter, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

March 2, 2012 • 7:16 am 48

Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012 – 7th and Final phase analysis

This phase was supposed to be the first phase by the original schedule. This phase comprises seats  where the Congress did extremely well in 2009. 60 seats go to polls in this phase. The most interesting aspect of the seats in this phase is in 2009 that more than half of the seats voted for a party other than the party to which the incumbent MLA belonged. The Congress was the biggest beneficiary of this trend by leading in nearly half of those seats that had turned against the incumbent MLA.

The significance for the Congress in those 12 odd seats was that it was nowhere in the picture in 2007. The BJP too benefited from this trend largely on account of the Varun Gandhi factor by leading in at least 8 seats in 2009 where the incumbent MLA was not from the BJP. The BSP suffered the most in 2009 failing to lead in at least 20 seats where it had an incumbent MLA. The SP on the other managed to offset losses by picking up leads in new seats.

It is also interesting that in atleast 7 seats that saw close contests in 2007, the 2009 leads were decisive while 7 other seats saw the exact opposite phenomenon. Perhaps a manifestation of delimitation among other factors.

A special thanks to Parag Tope and Gopi Maliwal for providing valuable analytical inputs that went into the seat by seat analysis across the phases. Parag also a has a different take on why the turnout is high, drawing attention to the under reported  Baba Ramdev factor through this YouTube video showing a significantly large crowd in  a village with a relatively small population.

Also read more from Parag here on the Ramdev phenomenon.

Fingers crossed for the exit polls and pre-poll, post poll surveys as they tumble out on the 3rd of March 2012.

Seat by seat analysis for this phase can be found here via Google Spreadsheets.


Filed under: Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

February 23, 2012 • 5:04 am 39

Uttar Pradesh Polls – Phase 5 analysis

NOTE: Hindi Translation of this analysis can be found here

49 seats go to polls in the fifth phase in Uttar Pradesh on 23rd February.

There is a historical spectrum of turnouts in this phase with some Bundelkhand seats in high 60s to 70s in stark contrast with BJP’s urban strongholds dipping to as low as 30s. Much debate has ensued on this blog on the BJP’s prospects. While there is talk of a BJP surge on the one hand by those sympathetic to the BJP  in stark contrast are the doomsday scenarios being painted by some psephologists in the media predicting a 4th place finish.

In an OpEd that appeared on Monday in The Pioneer, this blogger had this to say:

There can be two theories on what the spike in turnout means. The first theory posits that this may be a ‘wave election’ while the second one could mean it is really a case of ‘turning out the base’. On the face of it a ‘wave election’ should benefit the Congress or the Samajwadi Party, since both of them played the youth card in a big way hoping to build momentum on the appeal of Mr Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav respectively. A ‘turnout the base’ election on the other hand should benefit the BSP or the BJP.

The analysis across all phases to date shows significant structural weakness for the BJP

#1 – It has lost many seats past 2 to 3 elections that it once comfortably held in the 1990s. So a comeback for the BJP means reversing the trend of 3 or more election cycles in those seats.

#2 – Seats that it has consistently held over the years are limited to Urban pockets and in them there has been a steady pattern of declining turnouts with some slipping to Congress and a few resulting in close contests. A massive spike in turnout is no guarantee that those turning out to vote after so many years are necessarily committed BJP voters.

#3 – In areas like Bundelkhand where it is expected to do well on account of the Uma Bharati factor, MBC consolidation and an anti-BSP vote (betrayal of Kushawaha) the structural weakness is most apparent. As an example Charkhari the seat Uma Bharati is contesting, the BJP has won just once in the past and has finished 3rd past few elections by a sizeable margin barring 2009. To comfortably win in such seats the BSP vote has to transfer in significant proportions to the BJP vote with no leakage to the Congress.

The above 3 factors about sum up the odds the BJP has to beat if it has to emerge as a Dark Horse or as a  March Surprise. In a wave election favoring the BJP like in 1993 this could have been achievable.

But 2012 unlike 1993 for the BJP is a turnout the base election and not a wave election with no pan UP theme or a campaign centered around one single personality with the late launch of Uma Bharati and long ambivalence on her candidature/status.

The detailed analysis follows:

95. Tundla (SC) – historically turnout in mid-40s, barely crossed 50% in 1993 & 1996 flipping between BJP and SP. Akhilesh Yadav trailed here in 2009 to BSP by significant margin (48% turnout)

96. Jasrana – high 50s to mid 60s turnout, peaked in 1993. wide margin for Akhilesh Yadav in 2009 (48% turnout)

97. Firozabad – wild swings in turnout from low 40s to high 60s. SP won here on and off. Narrow 6000 vote lead for Akhilesh in 2009 over BSP (48% turnout)

98. Shikohabad – high turnout between 50s and 60s, flipped between SP and BJP. Wide lead for Akhilesh in 2009 (48% turnout)

99. Sirsaganj – new delimited seat, wide lead for Akhilesh in 2009 (48% turnout)

100. Kasganj – low 50s to 60s. BJP stronghold slipped to SP. Independent Kalyan Singh lead here by a wide margin in 2009 (low 44% turnout)

101. Amanpur -new delimited seat, in 2009 outcome same as above

102. Patiyali – high 50s to high 60s turnout, BJP stronghold slipped to SP and BSP. narrow 7k lead in 2009 for Independent (low 44% turnout)

103. Aliganj – turnout in low to mid 60s, SP stronghold. Salman Kursheed trailed in 3rd place here in 2009. Narrow 4k lead for BSP over SP (46% turnout)

104. Etah – mid 50s to low 60s turnout, slipped from BJP to SP. wide margin in 2009 for Independent Kalyan Singh (44% turnout)

105. Marhara – new delimited seat, landslide for Independent in 2009 (44% turnout)

106.  Jalesar (SC) – mid to high 50s turnout, flipped between BJP and SP. Part of Agra LS, SP lead in 2009 (low 42% turnout)

107.  Mainpuri – low to high 50s turnout, flipped between BJP and SP. Mulayam Singh lead by wide margin in 2009 (49.6% turnout)

108.  Bhongaon – historically turnout in high 50s to 60. SP stronghold. Mulayam Singh landslide in 2009 same as above

109.  Kishni (SC) – low to mid 50s turnout, SP stronghold. Wide margin for Mulayam in 2009, same as above.

110.  Karhal – mid 50s turnout, flipped from SP to BJP. Landslide for Mulayam in 2009, same as above.

199.  Jaswantnagar – historically turnout in the 60s. Shivpal’s bastion. Mulayam landslide in 2009.

200.  Etawah – declining turnouts from mid 50s to mid 50s, flipped between SP and BJP. Nail biting 1000 odd vote lead for BSP in 2009 (45% turnout)

201.  Bharthana (SC) – high 50s to 60s turnout. SP stronghold slipped to Congress. 8k lead for SP over BSP in 2009 (45% turnout)

202.  Bidhuna – mid 50s to 60s turnout. SP stronghold slipped to BSP. Akhilesh Yadav lead in 2009 (48% turnout)

203.  Dibiyapur – new delimited seat, SP lead in 2009 (45% turnout)

204. Auraiya (SC) – range of turnouts in the 50s, flipped across parties. Narrow 8k lead for SP over BSP (45% turnout)

205.  Rasulabad (SC) – new delimited seat, 11k lead for Akhilesh in 2009 (48% turnout)

206. Akbarpur-Raniya – looks like new delimited seat (old Akbarpur seat turnout in 60s, BSP stronghold). In 2009 less than 1000 vote lead for SP over BSP and less than 2k lead over Congress  (43% turnout)

207.  Sikandra – new delimited seat, SP lead in 2009 (45% turnout)

208.  Bhognipur – turnout in 50s, slipped from BSP to SP. Narrow 5k lead for SP in 2009 (47% turnout)

209.  Bilhaur (SC) – turnout in mid 50s, crossed 60 in 1993, flipped between SP and BSP. Narrow 1k lead for BSP over  SP in 2009 (low 41% turnout)

210.  Bithoor – new delimited seat, narrow 6k lead for Congress in 2009 (low 43% turnout)

211.  Kalyanpur – BJP stronghold repeats trend of low and declining turnouts. Narrow 4k lead for BJP in 2009 (low 43% turnout)

212. Govindnagar – One time BJP stronghold with same declining turnout trend, slipped to Congress. BJP trailed Congress narrowly by 3k votes in 2009 (abysmal 36% turnout)

213.  Sishamau – Same trend as  Govindnagar – declining turnouts, slipped to Congress. Formidable Congress lead in 2009 (abysmal 36% turnout)

214. Arya Nagar – turnout declined from high 50s to 40s, moved around parties. Nail biting less than 1k lead for BJP over Congress in 2009 (abysmal 36% turnout)

215.  Kidwai Nagar – new delimited seat. Narrow 9k lead for BJP over Congress in 2009 (abysmal 36% turnout)

216.  Kanpur Cantt. – four time BJP stronghold with same declining turnout trend. Significant Congress lead over BJP in 2009 (abysmal 36% turnout)

217.  Maharajpur – new delimited seat, nail biter in 2009 outcome settled by a difference of a few 100 votes between BJP and Congress (43%

218. Ghatampur (SC) – turnout in high 50s to 60s, seat moved between parties. 10k lead for congress in 2009 (43% turnout)

219.  Madhaugarh -Turnout spanned the 50s, flipped between BSP and BJP. SP lead in 2009 (47% turnout)

220.  Kalpi – mid to high 50s, even crossed 60 in 1993, BSP seat slipped to BJP. Ultimate nail biter of 2009 with difference between SP and BSP of just 8 votes (47% turnout)

221. Orai (SC) – mid to low 50s turnout, touched 60 in 1993, BJP seat slipped once to BSP. SP lead narrowly by 6k over BSP in 2009 (47% turnout)

222.  Babina – mid to high 50s turnout, BJP seat went to BSP and SP. 1ok lead for Congress over BSP in 2009. The BJP’s fourth place finish tells the story of how it has lost ground to become irrelevant in its one time stronghold. (high 55% turnout, one of the highest in UP during 2009 LS polls)

223.  Jhansi Nagar -new delimited seat (old Jhansi seat was a one time BJP bastion, showed same steady decline in turnout before eventually slipping to BSP). Massive lead for Congress in 2009 over BSP with BJP in third place in a seat it held in four consecutive elections. (high 55%)

224.  Mauranipur (SC) – low to high 50s turnout, old BJP seat that slipped to Congress in two consecutive elections before swinging back to BJP. Narrow 4k lead for Congress over BSP in 2009, 4th place finish for BJP (high 55% turnout)

225 . Garautha – mid to high 60s turnout historically, one time Congress seat slipped to SP and BSP since. BSP lead by significant margin in 2009 over SP (47% turnout)

226.  Lalitpur – Wild swings in turnout from low 40 to a high of 65%. Four time BJP bastion slipped to Congress. Narrow 3k lead for Congress over BSP with BJP in fourth place (high 55% turnout)

227.  Mehroni (SC) – Historically one of the highest turnouts in this seat in Bundelkhand with high 60s and low 70s. Consistent pattern of flip-flops between Congress and BJP. Narrow 4k lead for Congress over BSP, BJP in fourth place. (high 55% turnout)

228.  Hamirpur – mid to high 50s seat crossed 60 in 1993.  BSP has won here past few cycles. Sizeable SP lead with narrow 1k fight for second place in 2009 between BSP and Congress (48.4% turnout)

229.  Rath (SC) – low 50s turnout, touching 60 in 1993. 3 way close contest in 2009 with BSP leading BJP and Congress narrowly by 6k votes (48.4% turnout)

230.  Mahoba – low to high 50s turnout. SP has won here past few cycles. Narrow 2k lead for BSP over Congress (48.4% turnout)

231.  Charkhari – low 40s to low 50s turnout, BJP has won only once here in 1996 with Congress, SP and BSP holding this seat. Sizeable lead for BSP over Congress in 2009, BJP in 3rd place with less than 2k votes behind Congress. (48.4% turnout)

Filed under: Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, Offstumped, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

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  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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