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Politics and Public Policy in India

March 6, 2012 • 10:32 am 34

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

October 3, 2011 • 7:17 am 4

Chetan Bhagat, Aijaz Ilmi and a Muslim debate media wont have

Originally published in the Pioneer on 3rd October 2011. The PIB press release referenced in this column can be found here. Both the Chetan Bhagat column and Aijaz Ilmi’s Open Letter can be found here.

On September 20, the Ministry of Minority Affairs, Government of India, put out a Press release on OBC reservation for Muslims. The Press release listed instances where reservations to some Muslim groups had already been provided under the OBC category. The Press release had a detailed table listing the State-wise break up as of August 24, 2010. While many States like West Bengal had provided no OBC quota for Muslims, only six States had at least one or two Muslim groups benefiting from OBC reservation. Of those six States Uttar Pradesh was providing OBC reservation to just two Muslim groups while Congress-ruled Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Maharashtra made up the rest of that list, providing OBC reservation to just one Muslim group.

Only five States had provided reservations to more than two Muslim groups within the OBC quota of which just one State, Kerala, has been ruled by the Congress or the Communist parties. All the other four States providing a long list of Muslim groups with OBC quota were BJP/NDA-ruled States, including Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh.

But that is not the end of this startling Press release. Only one other State rivals Bihar in designating the highest number of Muslim groups to benefit from OBC quota — Gujarat. Where Bihar had 24 different Muslim groups benefiting from OBC reservation, Gujarat had a staggering 35 different Muslim groups listed in that Press release.

In this age of 24×7 electronic media reinforced urban legends and media myths, it would seem truth is what the anchors want you to believe. A case in point is the stark contrast with which Bihar is made out to be a haven of Muslim inclusivity and Gujarat a hell by the media. A contrast that is deliberately sought to be amplified by these same media pundits who hold up the Bihar Chief Minister as an ideal of tolerance, inclusivity and secularism while running down the Gujarat Chief Minister on the same issues. Small wonder we see little debate in the Delhi-based media over the Bihar Chief Minister’s conscious political visits to temples during pre-election yatras where the line between the political and the administrative was fuzzy. It is also no surprise that we see practically no outrage on alleged acts of intolerance of dissent by the Bihar Chief Minister over some negative remarks in Facebook by Government servants who were recently suspended.

It would, however, be a disservice to the efforts of both Mr Narendra Modi and Mr Nitish Kumar, who remain two of the most performing Chief Ministers in India, if we were to reduce this public debate on Muslim empowerment or inclusivity to a false polemic over personalities. It was with great distress this columnist noted an open letter from Aijaz Ilmi to Chetan Bhagat earlier this week fall prey to the same false polemic over personalities. Aijaz Ilmi was responding to a column by Chetan Bhagat earlier in the week on Muslim vote-bank politics.

Aijaz Ilmi incidentally was one of the few bold Muslim commentators who saw the Allahabad High Court judgement on the Ayodhya title dispute as an opportunity to solve that intractable problem. Aijaz Ilmi’s open letter makes extensive references to the Sachar Committee report on the economic and social backwardness of Muslims while lamenting the lack of what he calls “an honest chance for a decent living and equitable opportunities” for Muslims.

It would be a mistake to dismiss Aijaz Ilmi’s open letter as a stereotypical response. A debate needs to be forced on who has the best policies and ideas in general to meet rising aspirations and more specifically in the Muslim context and which ideas are creating opportunities to empower the Muslim spirit of enterprise within a level playing field.

This is a debate nobody in the media wants to have and proof of this comes from the speed with which the media has buried the story over the reported remarks by PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti on the efforts of a Muslim entrepreneur to set up shop in Gujarat. It should surprise nobody that the Left-liberal bias in the media has ensured not one media outlet has even attempted to seek out who that Muslim entrepreneur was or bothered to elaborate on what exactly was his experience.

In fact, for all the talk of Muslim backwardness and consequent need for inclusive policies even the Sachar Committee report that Aijaz Ilmi quotes from extensively in his open letter, is also stunningly silent on the needs and challenges of Muslim entrepreneurs in seeking a level-playing field. While the report dedicates an entire chapter on access to financial credit and financial inclusion, it barely goes into specific issues and challenges of an aspiring Muslim looking to expand opportunities beyond self-employment through entrepreneurship.

Despite recognising the fact that many Muslims are self-employed the entire thrust of the Sachar Committee report, it would seem, was more focussed on how Muslims must remain employed within public or private sectors as opposed to how self-employed Muslims could be empowered to expand their enterprise. One sees the same refrain of dependency on others’ for employment in Aijaz Ilmi’s open letter as well with little advocacy on advancement from self-employment to entrepreneurship.

The tragedy for the Muslim community in India is that much of the debate on its socio-economic fate is conducted with politically prejudiced blinkers on. Be it on entitlements with the OBC quota as a case in point or on opportunities with the Sachar report as a case in point, false polemics between Gujarat and Bihar, Mr Modi and Mr Kumar have taken precedence over facts and reality.

One hears of a Dalit entrepreneurs conference to be held in Delhi later this year premised on the idea of ‘fighting caste with capital’. Perhaps it is not a bad idea for a similar Muslim entrepreneurs conference to debunk some commonly held myths on the kind of political environment that ensures a level-playing field for them. If not anything else, such a conference might give Aijaz Ilmi something more than a Left-liberal Sachar Committee report to quote from in a future open letter.

Filed under: betrayal of aam admi, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Nitin Gadkari, Narendra Modi, Left Liberalism, economic freedom, Ambedkarite Constitutionalism, Two Indias, Assembly elections 2011, Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Baba Ramdev, Varun Gandhi, Advani Yatra against Corruption

September 20, 2011 • 7:45 am 5

Beyond the fast, a Roadmap for the Yatra – Column in The Pioneer

Originally published in The Pioneer on 20th Sept 2011.

From Rama to Akbar to Shivaji, the Shveta Chhatra has been a non-theocratic symbol of the sovereign power of the State. The Shveta Chhatra envisioned a ‘Strong Republic’ but with a minimalist Government. From Kautilya to Gandhi and Ambedkar, we see glimpses of that tradition of political thought. It needs to be revived

A decade-long campaign of calumny marked by a frequent shifting of goal posts and extraordinary court interventions is finally staring at the end of its road. In a very wise move the Supreme Court in its orders on the appeal to further probe the ‘role’ of Mr Narendra Modi and others in relation to the Gulbarg case asserted both restraint and discretion. In doing so the Supreme Court reminded us that the “sky will not always be the limit”, when in fact precedent and Constitution define those limits to what the highest court will do and will not do. This is a slap in the face of those who attempted to invoke the non-existent doctrine of ‘command responsibility’ so they can achieve by extra-legal means what they failed to achieve by political means.

The only salve for the wounds of Gujarat 2002 is for truth and justice to prevail. By seeking retributive political vengeance through the court system, agenda-driven NGO activists have actually insulted the memory of the many dead in Gujarat 2002 while also abusing the sentiments of their next of kin. No words or actions can satisfy Ms Zakia Jafri’s cry for justice on account of her husband’s horrific death. The criminal case over the burning has to be taken to its logical conclusion and the perpetrators must be served the toughest sentences by the courts. But the NGO activists do Ms Zakia Jafri no good by leading her down the path of retributive political vengeance in the trial court. Ms Zakia Jafri needs justice and that justice will not be found by making a case rooted in falsehoods.

The process of uncovering the truth and upholding justice must continue in every one of 2002 riots cases. Agenda-driven NGO activists and the media must do the riots victims a favour by not second-guessing the process of Justice, thus delaying it even further. The politicisation of the justice process in the riots cases must come to an end.

The media must also cease its vacuous agenda of raising false bogeys in the aftermath of the Supreme Court orders. There is no general election next week, next month or next year. By posing dishonest questions on the BJP’s prime ministerial candidates, the media is deflecting attention from its own shameful record on not subjecting the Congress’s internal affairs to the same degree of scrutiny.

While the time to debate prime ministerial candidates will come at some point in the future, the time to debate issues, platform, agenda and vision is now. We have in front of us two vehicles that have been advanced by the BJP in the past fortnight. On the one hand we have the yatra announced by Mr LK Advani and on the other we have the Sadbhavana Mission launched by Mr Narendra Modi. While the two have very distinct stated goals, those goals are inter-related.

Both the yatra and the mission have to address three challenges for the BJP-led NDA to displace the UPA by presenting itself as a viable, credible and legitimate alternative.

The first challenge that needs to be addressed is differentiation. A clear distinction needs to be drawn from the corrupt politics and the statist policies of the Congress. The second challenge that needs to be addressed is inclusivity. While drawing that sharp differentiation care must be taken to demonstrate that the alternative presented will not result in exclusion. The third challenge that needs to be addressed is consolidation of the base.

Mr Modi’s formulation of ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance’ can be the new political construct that drives a clear distinction from the Congress’s corrupt politics and statist policies. While this will effectively address the first challenge, the message of ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance’ must also transcend demographic fault-lines to address the second challenge.

That can happen by projecting the NDA as a Big Tent coalition to convey a message of inclusivity. BR Ambedkar, speaking in the Constituent Assembly, spoke of a vision of an assimilated Indian republic where the distinction between the majority and minority ceases. By drawing on Ambedkar’s words, ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance’ will have to assuage anxieties of the minorities.

How can such a Big Tent coalition reassure with sincerity and credibility that justice will be delivered to all and there shall be discrimination against none?

How can such a Big Tent coalition do so without incurring the wrath of its own base by not being accused of the very same appeasement it has always been so critical of?

To accomplish this it is important for the proposed yatra by Mr Advani to advance a new construct that fuses the two ideas of ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance’ and a ‘Big Tent coalition’. It must do so by reinforcing Ambedkar’s vision of an inclusive and assimilated republic with “Justice for all and discrimination against none.” Finally, it must draw positive inspiration from the cultural nationalism of our ancient past in a non-theocratic manner.

From Rama to Akbar to Shivaji, the ‘White Umbrella’ or the Shveta Chhatra has been a non-theocratic symbol of the sovereign power of the state. The Shveta Chhatra also stood for a tradition of school of political thought that envisioned a ‘Strong Republic’ but with a minimalist Government. From Kautilya to Gandhi and Ambedkar, we see glimpses of that tradition of political thought.

Hence, this yatra must consider embracing the Shveta Chhatra as a moniker for that inclusive Big Tent coalition that shall deliver on the promise of ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance’.

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Ambedkarite Constitutionalism, Assembly elections 2011, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Shveta Chhatra, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

September 15, 2011 • 4:09 am 6

The debate over the Narendra Modi debate…..

Predictably no topic generates as much debate as anything to do with Gujarat Chief Minister and BJP leader Narendra Modi.

A whole spectrum of reactions have been triggered since Monday including the travesty of competitive fasting by some in Gujarat. Three columns in the Indian Express and one in the Hindustan Times exemplify the nature of this debate.

The Indian Express continues to peddle lies in its Lead Editorial after having been exposed by this blog for peddling  the same lie many months back. This line of dishonest editorializing on Narendra Modi has become standard fare on the Indian Express. Yesterday’s lead editorial must be singled out for a similar wrong accounting of facts, which ironically were contradicted by the News Analysis of the same paper on the Supreme Court’s orders from Monday.

Two other op-ed columns in the Indian Express however make up for the cheap quality of the editorial. The column by Pratap Bhanu Mehta must be singled out. In his column Dr. Mehta points out the many potential traps in the arduous path to a viable and credible alternative to the UPA to emerge. A way around these traps is the subject of an upcoming Op-Ed in the Pioneer. In another column in the Indian Express an poignant point is made on why the process of reconciliation must begin with the personal. This too is the subject of an upcoming column in the Rediff.

Lastly this piece by Samar Harlankar in the Hindustan Times, is an important reason why loose talk on 2014 must be tamped down.  Much distance needs to be covered before 2014. In a way it is good this debate is happening in 2011 when the political stakes are relatively low despite all the noise in the media. This creates space and time for opportunities to listen to a diversity of opinion and to fine tune political strategies.

Filed under: Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, Narendra Modi, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

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  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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