Offstumped – Commentary on India

Originally published on Niti Central

While many facile analyses will attribute the electoral outcome in Gujarat to factors that were marginally relevant, the more astute of analysts will see in the turnout figures what this election was really about.

Of particular interest would be the number of first time voters and of even greater significance the spike in the Women Voter turnout.

It would not be exaggeration to describe this election as the one where Women and Youth reposed their faith overwhelmingly in Narendra Modi. In the processing putting up a Firewall against Caste, Religion and every other political construct from the decades gone past that have come to define incumbencies.

This win for Narendra Modi signifies 5 things:

#1 - It is a trend setter - establishes that pro-incumbency sentiment can firewall against even the toughest of incumbencies after a 18 year run for a party and 11 year run for the Chief Minister.

#2 - It breaks from the past - we have to discard political constructs of the past 6 decades to analyze this election. This requires a new political construct to analyze how elections of the future will be fought

#3 - It shows Technology can be a winner - we can finally put behind us the ghost of “India Shining” and 2004 and stop being apologetic about the use of Technology.

#4 - It sends a signal to the Congress and its extended ecosystem of Media and NGO Left-Libs- victimhood as a permanent political agenda is past its sell by date. Cynicism no longer sells.

#5 - It also sends a signal to the Rest of India on what the future can hold for them.

Between Women and the Youth of Gujarat lies the “Neo Aspirational Class” or the “Neo Middle Class” as Narendra Modi recently put it. The story of this election win is really the story of how this “Neo Middle Class” came to be and how Mr. Modi has laid out a political roadmap for this “Neo Middle Class” to realize its aspirations. Mr. Modi preferred to call a “Covenant of Commitment” a.k.a. Sankalp Patra.

I would go a step further to call it “Umeedon ki Seedhi” a.k.a “Ladder of Opportunity”.

For the first time in the middle of a high stakes election for an incumbent Chief Minister in a country like India to go on record and express his commitment to Enterprise takes both courage and conviction. It is much easier to resort to cheap populism. What I find striking about this election is the creativity with which the “Safety of Net” has been promised. This has been done so while being steadfast about creating a “Ladder of Opportunity”. Thus you have the opportunity for more citizens to cross over that much riled “Poverty Line” through targeted interventions and join the “Neo Aspirational” class. The “safety net” that has been promised in the Sankalp Patra is less of a trap that sucks you into dependency but more of a trampoline that helps you bounce right back to find your way up that ladder of opportunity – Umeedon ki Seedhi.

More on the rise of Neo Middle Class

The earliest indicators of the rise of the “Neo Aspirational Class” come from the 2002 BPL Census data of Rural Households. Between the fall of NDA that was wrongly attributed to “India Shining” and the re-election of UPA that was once again wrongly attributed to “rights based entitlements” most commentators have ignored what the BPL Census data told us going as far back as 2002. In block after block, district after district, when queried over what kind of assistance Rural BPL families preferred one message came out loud and clear – education, skills and self-employment.

Narendra Modi’s comments on the rise of the “neo middle class” during the release of his party’s manifesto for the upcoming assembly election may come as a surprise to many but there is a sound demographic basis to it. Back in 2008 as an academic exercise this columnist had dissected the electoral landscape in Uttar Pradesh through the prism of the 2002 BPL Census data to find that the opportunity exists to materially alter the battleground in Uttar Pradesh through a platform that has an emphasis on “economic issues” that can size up to the “economic aspirations” of the neo-middle class.

For much too long “Social Engineering” and “Victimhood Narratives” have been the dominant paradigms for both understanding politics and for advancing political agenda. Since the advent of the UPA, the Sonia Gandhi lead “National Advisory Council” with its agenda of “Rights based Entitlements” has further obscured the rise of the neo-middle class with the universal appellation “aam admi” gaining currency within the national political discourse.

Back in 2009 in the aftermath of the Lok Sabha defeat of the BJP in a three part series of blogs, this columnist argued for displacing “Social Engineering” with “Socio-Economic Engineering” for the Center Right to reclaim the dominant political narrative using the twin constructs of the “Ladder of Opportunity” and the “Safety of the Net” to better target the neo Middle Class.

Most recently examining hard survey data collected in Gujarat earlier this year, this columnist had posited that the rise of the Neo Aspirational class presents the most potent challenge to the UPA’s aam admi politics.

“It is this “neo-aspirational” class’ hunger for job opportunities and infrastructure that is shaping a different kind of electoral discourse where development and economic growth are viewed as essential to the ladder of opportunity while concerns over inflation manifest into the desire for a subsidy-oriented safety net. This is markedly different from the UPA’s aam admi rhetoric which is all about imaginary rights and entitlements from NREGA to Food Security with the lure of cash transfers. The key difference is that the neo-aspirational class is far more impatient to climb the ladder of opportunity rather than militate like the UPA’s aam admi for a safety net woven out of rights and entitlements. The anger against UPA’s corruption is also reflection of this impatience.”

“Social Engineering” and “Victimhood Narratives” have been political anomalies for some time now with a young and impatient India hungry to satisfy its aspirations making electoral choices that defy conventional political wisdom. Soon they will become anachronisms with the Gujarat victory marking the first time an explicit agenda targeting the neo-aspirational class being advanced by a major political party receiving such a resounding endorsement from the citizenry.

Filed under: Gujarat Polls 2012, India Elections 2014, Narendra Modi, Neo Aspirational class, Neo Middle Class, New Middle Class, UPA-II Critical Appraisal