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BJP’s 9 year drift ends, battle for 2014 begins – Column in Niti Central

Originally published here on Niti Central.

Battle for Lok Sabha has begun

The BJP has now been out of power at the Centre for nearly nine years. In these nine years, it has witnessed two Lok Sabha defeats, a patriarch fade away from public limelight, a promising star die an unnatural death, its tallest Leader a pale shadow of himself while the next generation of leaders in Delhi struggled to come of age. These nine years also saw some of its intellectual leading lights estranged, its policy stalwarts become anachronisms while the party itself in Delhi meandered from one agitation to another without a coherent ideological anchor.

The drift in the BJP’s centre ironically had the opposite effect in States ruled by it as a new generation of leaders emerged to hasten the federalisation of the BJP.

Last week’s National Executive followed by the National Council marks the culmination of the generational shift within the BJP. A process that reluctantly started in 2009 after the second successive defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. While the BJP attempted to show deep bench strength with younger leaders taking over the roles of Leaders of Opposition, it did not quite settle the leadership pecking order. Last week settled that issue with the most democratic of means possible within a political party in India. The groundswell of pressure from below made it unambiguously clear where the leadership pecking order starts from.


Congress sacrificing India for one family: Modi (Part- 1)


But last week was about something larger than just the leadership issue. The nine-year drift within the core of the BJP had taken its toll on even the most ardent and passionate of BJP supporters. Last week was about finally giving that faceless and nameless BJP worker a new hope that the drift had ended and that there was a new ‘mission’ at hand.

In a political culture where firing up the base with anger is the conventional norm, it does take creativity to deliver a speech that both raises the motivation of the lowest of the BJP ranks and also charges them with a mission to take a message of hope and aspiration to the people.


Congress sacrificing India for one family: Modi (Part-2)


Going beyond the superlative reactions and the usual griping it must be noted that Narendra Modi’s politically charged speech at the Talkatora Stadium in Delhi marks a significant departure from any of the BJP’s usual rhetoric since 2009.

There was none of the trademark hand-wringing that had come to symbolise the BJP’s political impulses since the successive Lok Sabha losses. There was also none of the petulant anger that was in ample display since the Lok Sabha defeat. Make no mistake, there was both passion and fire in this speech but it was not rooted in negative emotions, rather it sprung from hope and confidence of finally being able to mount a credible challenge to the Sonia Gandhi led UPA in the next Lok Sabha election.

If there was even the slightest of doubt in the hearts and minds of any BJP worker on this count, it was soon allayed as the UPA reacted with uncharacteristic alacrity to the Narendra Modi speech with the barrage of angry tweets from the Prime Minister’s media advisor, to the Union Information & Broadcasting Minister.

Narendra Modi framed the battle for the next Lok Sabha in clear terms to his audience – the party’s base with his exhortation that the BJP had to project itself as a credible alternative to the UPA in the minds of the voters. If there was disappointment in some quarters outside the BJP on the tone and substance of the speech it was misplaced for this was a speech to aimed squarely at the BJP’s base to send home the message that the nine-year drift had come to an end. This speech was about telling the demotivated BJP worker that for the first time after 9 years, the BJP has something positive to offer to the people while calling upon them to throw the Congress out of office. It was not a speech aimed at persuading fence-sitters nor was it a speech focused on laying out a Policy Roadmap. There is a time and place for those speeches but the primary task that needed to be accomplished was to get the BJP worker fired up over a new Mission.

But the speech was not entirely bereft of a broader message to the nation at large.

Three points stood out in the speech that even the most cynical of Narendra Modi critics will have to acknowledge. The first was that the next election had to be about something bigger than mere hope and change. It had to be about a billion aspirations, about dreaming big. The second point was on what constitutes reforms and on countering the UPA’s token measures being labeled as ‘reforms’. Even the most cynical fence sitter will appreciate the point the high bar that was set in the speech on what constitutes reforms – long term structural changes whose impact spans multiple decades. The third point was the clarion call to make the next election about freedom from poor governance and about creating demand for ‘good governance’.

All three of the above points in the speech went beyond the immediate focus of the speech aimed at the base to define the contours of the BJP’s platform for the next election.

Last but not the least, the speech’s pointed attacks on the Sonia Gandhi-led NAC, on the unnatural arrangement between Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi of vesting power without any responsibility on the Nehru-Gandhi family and on the dismal performance of the Prime Minister were a reminder that the UPA had to first account for its sins for the past nine years before attempting a course correction from its faltering ‘aam admi agenda’ as it has tried to since the Chintan Shivir in Jaipur and most recently in the Budget speech.

The message emerging from the BJP’s National Council after the murky circumstances in which it effected its recent leadership change is that the drift of the nine years is a matter of the past. There is a new hope and a new de facto leader with a deep bench of supporting leaders each with their unique value addition. If Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s speech reminded of the need for gender sensitivity, LK Advani’s speech sought to allay minority anxieties and apprehensions, Arun Jaitley’s speech focused on policy nitty-gritties and Sushma Swaraj’s speech elevated the discourse as the BJP’s conscience reminding of the need to work as team.

Narendra Modi’s speech underlined that team spirit with the clear message that the debate on Prime Ministerial candidate was secondary; the mission to uproot the Congress was primary.

The battle for the next Lok Sabha has verily begun. The alacrity with which Congress spin doctors scrambled to rebut Narendra Modi’s speech on social media is a sign that it has already conceded the psychological advantage to the challenger despite being a two term incumbent.

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Filed under: India Budget, India Elections 2009, India Elections 2014, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Narendra Modi, Neo Aspirational class, Neo Middle Class, New Middle Class, Offstumped, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

India Elections 2009 – The new coastal faultline

TVR Shenoy writing in the Rediff offers a profound insight in this observation

The BJP, as matters stand today, does not have a single ally left in the states on the eastern seaboard.

BJP has few or no chances of winning seats in a contiguous line of states running from West Bengal to Kerala.

Take a look now at the states on the Arabian Sea. Gujarat and Karnataka actually have BJP governments, and it is a major party in Maharashtra and in Goa. Barring Kerala, the BJP has a good chance of winning several seats, a situation that is diametrically opposite from that on the eastern side.

While the centerpiece of Mr. Shenoy’s lament is the BJP’s eastern coastline vaccum which he describes as a sad commentary on our democracy, he makes only a passing reference to a more profound geo-shift that needs to be appreciated.

The Trinamool Congress is allied with the Congress. The Telugu Desam, the AIDMK, and the Biju Janata Dal are now allied with the CPI-M, possibly as part of a resurrected Third Front.

So if the Congress suffers the pendulum of incumbency in both directions across the east coast we could see for the first time a contiguous string of states from West Bengal to Kerala along the eastern coastline in which the CPI-Mafioso is either in power, a partner in power or has a stake in power through the back door.

Back in 2007-2008 while the farce over the Nuclear Deal was playing out Offstumped has speculated on the calculation behind Prakash Karat’s obduracy to take the CPI-Mafioso’s reach beyond its traditional strongholds of Bengal and Kerala.

It can perhaps be concluded that Project Karat was all along about an eastern sea-board strategy that gives the Communists a stake in Governance and a say in the kind of Development along the East Coast states.

With Orissa being the last and only bastion of resistance one must ask the question

If the violence over aggressive Evangelical activity in Orissa was Maoist inspired and a key element of Project Karat ?

If the assassination of VHP Leader Swami Lakshmananda was the tipping point for it was bound to provoke a violent reaction ?

The geo-strategic implications of this East-West coastal faultline must not be under-estimated for the China loving CPI-Mafioso could be serving more than one interest with its eastern sea-board strategy of acquiring a political stake in all Bay of Bengal States leading up to Kerala.

This apparent rise of the 3rd front along the east coast must be seen as less about regionalism and more about National Security and Strategic Interests with a China friendly Communist party acquiring a strategic stake in Governance allowing it to influence the quality and pace of Development along the East Coast

Two questions arise the BJP must answer beyond the 2009 election season in the face of diminishing political space along the eastern sea board

#1 Why has the BJP been more succesful along the Western Coast and Heartland than along the Eastern Coast ?

#2 How will it counter the CPI-Mafioso’s attempt at ressurection through an eastern sea-board strategy that may end up serving China’s geo-political interests ?

Filed under: betrayal of aam admi, Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, jeetega-bharat, Karnataka Polls 2008, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Offstumped, Rajasthan Polls 2008

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