Offstumped – Commentary on Indian Politics

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Politics and Public Policy in India

December 13, 2010 • 12:00 am 34

The Nandan Nilekani wild card

When Shekhar Gupta writes two Op-eds on the drift in the UPA it’s a signal of sorts. Before we get too carried away let us be clear this is not a “Dileep Padgaonkar” moment (for those who were not old enough, Dileep Padgaonkar who was once TOI’s chief editor, famously claimed it was the second most important job in the country).

The reason this is a signal is because of the extent to which the Shekha Gupta editorial bureau in the Indian Express had been invested in the Manmohan Singh PMO until recently. So when Shekhar Gupta starts to describe the UPA 2.0 as lameduck it is a sign of diminishing future returns from that investment.

Now conventional wisdom would have us believe that this maybe about an imminent succession to the heir apparent. But then Shekhar Gupta is not exactly betting on a heir apparent lead PMO. In fact Shekhar Gupta is not hedging his bets on any of the known suspects taking over the PMO while being quite forthright in describing the incumbent as lame duck.

This begs the question – what does he know that the rest of us don’t ?

Perhaps it’s that the heir apparent doesn’t exactly want to hold public office ?

The drift in the Congress is better explained if we were to go with the working hypothesis that Rahul Gandhi does not want to become Prime Minister. The public jostling between Digvijay Singh and P. Chidambaram and the running down of Kapil Sibal by lightweight Members of Parliament is indicative of the high stakes game that’s underway, positioning for a post Manmohan Singh scenario.

But then who says Sonia Gandhi is about to replace a non-politician with a career politician ?

Sonia Gandhi’s ascent to the longest Presidency has been marked by an emasculation of career politicians. Narasimha Rao has all but been erased from public memory. Sitaram Kesri had no idea what hit him before e faded into the oblivion. Arjun Singh paid a steep price to retain some semblance of self-respect. While destiny took care of potential challengers the rebels like Pawar have long been cut to size.

The only career politicians in the Congress with a future are those who have completely submitted themselves to the basic Nehru Gandhi Contract. We are already witnessing in Andhra what happens when the Nehru-Gandhi contracts is subordinated by a regional satrap.

So as much as Chidambaram, Digvijay Singh and Kapil Sibal maybe positioning themselves for a post Manmohan scenario it is highly unlikely the Nehru-Gandhi contract will be subordinated in favor of a career politician.

What about the Minority/Dalit card ?

This trial balloon has been floated before. The Congress is acutely aware that it needs to play both the vote banks subtly to be in power. It will dole out symbolic posts but won’t go beyond that.

Which brings us to the question of what kind of non-politician serves Nehru-Gandhi interests best ?

It can’t be NGO-activists of the NAC mould. They have their uses outside the business of government. But more importantly the Nehru-Gandhis need the aura of benevolence almost exclusively to themselves. Their brand of messianic politics depends on that exclusivity.

Hence the man running the business of government must be a technocrat in the Manmohan Singh mould to appeal to the Middle Class while not diluting the Nehru-Gandhi brand in the eyes of the BPL class.

Which brings us to the question of which Technocrat might that be ?

Of all the technocrat lateral entrants to the Congress extended family, Nandan Nilekani has been the most low profile, keeping above controversies while maintaining a laser focus on his job. As a successful author with a reformist mindset and a wealth creator he is a middle class role model in the Manmohan Singh mould. He also is a unique position bridging Rahul Gandhi’s 2 India’s though the UID project.

If one were to hedge bets on the most likely non-politician to succeed Manmohan Singh it would be Nandan Nilekani - a choice with the potential to blow the wind of the sails of the Opposition. This is not to say the choice is not without it’s risks. As a Corporate product a Nilekani’ ability to manage political contradictions will be far more limited than a Manmohan Singh. But then the Nehru-Gandhi brand has demonstrated tremendous resilience in weathering political failings.

So if indeed Rahul Gandhi opts out of public office and a technocrat is sprung up, what does it mean to the BJP ?

The BJP’s or a 3rd front’s odds of electoral success in a Lok Sabha election largely rest on monumental bungling by the Congress. To date, despite all the political setbacks, the credibility of the Nehru Gandhi remains unaffected. For the current electoral trend in favor of the Congress to reverse, a necessary precondition is an issue on which the Nehru-Gandhis are held personally responsible causing irreversible damage to their credibility.

It would be a foolish strategy on the part of the BJP to hitch it’s fortunes on the likelihood of that happening. By staying out of office the Nehru-Gandhis have bought sufficient insurance.

In the absence of such monumental bungling and if challenged by a non-politician technocrat, the BJP will face a steep challenge in finding it’s path back to power with most of it’s current leadership weighed down by political baggage of one kind or the other.

In the absence of a new grassroots movement that effects a fundamental shift in the political landscape, the imperatives of this Nehru-Gandhi strategic calculus demand that the BJP start looking for a fresh face without any political baggage preferably outside it’s fold to be viable in 2019 if not in 2014.

Related tweets:

There we go people summarizing the known and tucked deep inside the piece a hint on the unknown LT “@pragmatic_d http://is.gd/eWQgg” about 1 hour ago via Twitter for iPhone

This is why a non-politician technocrat http://j.mp/bnPhnL will complete the picture about 2 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone

RT “@KanchanGupta: @offstumped You wrongly credit Dileep P It was Giri who famously said ‘ToI editor’s job is the second most important.’”

Filed under: India Lok Sabha Elections 2009

August 28, 2010 • 6:19 am 4

Rights based Left Liberalism has queered the pitch

Recent tweets

  • Must read highlights cognitive dissonance within UPA RT “@cbcnn_Pilid: Kaushik Basu’s full paper on Fin min website http://bit.ly/cheJ8Z
  • Interesting coincidence RT “@pragmatic_d: Shekhar Gupta on Congress’ left-turn. http://is.gd/eHzQ6”
  • But Shekhar Gupta must realize this left ward drift is significantly different from the earlier ones on two counts
  • It has not concentrated power in State instead it has marginalized it devolving power to quasi-constitutional bodies with no accountability
  • In doing so it has created a stake for a new class of leftist special interests going far beyond delhi’s leftist intellectual circles
  • There in lies the long term damage to the Constitutional Institutions and to Governance
  • Disagree with @swapan55 http://j.mp/9Qw1Kd backroom interventions in Parliament are not same as taking a coherent public position on policy
  • Let us be clear there is only one credible yardstick to measure if BJP is on it’s way to recovery or not
  • That yardstick is the degree to which BJP challenges the Congress’ left liberalism at it’s very root through direct public policy positions
  • All else like this intervention on nuclear liability issue is just feel good politics that’s far from making lasting impact on it’s fortunes
  • Urgently needed – a “Values based Constitutionalism” to pose a credible challenge to the Sonia Rahul “Rights based Entitlement Left Liberalism”
  • Absolutely true federalism will be a key constiutional value RT “@raoabhijeet: @offstumped Alternative is True Federalism”
  • BJP’s current non-strategy can be summed up: Nation will tire of Congress. Let us be non-shrill enough to be acceptable to lead a non-Congress coalition
  • Hence BJP non-strategy requires not taking strong ideological policy position against Left Liberal entitlements to humor noncongress rag tag
  • Need more proof that Rights based Entitlements have queered the pitch for Congress http://j.mp/dufX3j
  • That LK Advani could not think of a single Rural Enterprise success story as theme for Peepli Live and only NREGA came to his mind says lot
  • RT “@centerofright: @offstumped he shld hv read @rashmibansal‘s stay hungry stay foolish or connect the dots, both have good examples”

Original Blog Post

In 2007 then BJP National Vice President and Lok Sabha MP from Orissa Juel Oram had raised the banner of protest in Orissa against the state government’s move to sanction prospective license (PL) to Posco for mining at Khandadhar iron ore reserve. Two years before in 2005 Juel Oram had this to say of his opposition to mining projects in Orissa

displacement will affect the socio-economic conditions of the people and this is a major issue. “When a project comes up in any locality it affects not only the tribal people, but also the community as a whole,” says Oram. He has been vehemently opposing the12-million-tonne POSCO steel project near Paradip. Thousands of people who were displaced by the Rourkela Steel Plant, the Hirakud dam, the Rengali dam, and many other medium and small projects have not been compensated till date, he says.

But for Juel Oram’s opposition there is not much to glean from the last 5 years on where exactly the BJP stands on the issues related to Mining from the point of view of the environment and more importantly the Forest Rights Act. On the Forest Rights Act itself there is little that can be found by way of an informed policy position from the BJP. There are stray stories on Chattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh demanding speedy implementation of the Act and later on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi claiming credit for its implementation in his state. But beyond that there just is little to glean on

#1 what exactly was the BJP’s contribution to the debate on this legislation

#2 if there was an informed point of view on this Legislation that was both rooted in its political ideology and was derived from an enlightened political/electoral strategy

#3 if there was even an attempt by the BJP to influence public opinion one way or the other on the various aspects of the Act to bring to bear pressure on the UPA in shaping the contours of this Act

The story is not very much different when one looks at the BJP’s role in shaping and influencing other key Entitlement programs succesfully legislated by the UPA as Constitutional Rights.

Let us take the case of NREGA to which every BJP ruled state government has been a willing party. But for stray election time remarks on NREGA there has hardly been any firm political opposition to it. But for this criticism from Yashwant Sinha, it is hard to find any strong position on the NREGA. Only belatedly Narendra Modi has spoken up on corruption within the NREGA but not much beyond.

The BJP’s approach on Right to Education, RTE is no different either nor do we see any well formed position on the proposed Food Security bill.

So what we have here is the BJP mostly reacting to the Congress’ left liberal “rights based agenda”, riding on its bandwagon in states where it is in power while being mostly clueless on the long term strategic implications of this “rights based left liberal law making”.

The Vedanta episode highlights how these Rights based  laws like the FRA have effected a long term strategic advantage to the Congress. The Rights based Agenda allows the Congress to

#1 – appropriate a messianic political role making any opposition to its agenda look petty and belligerent

#2 – give a stake to a nationwide network of NGO activists who in turn return the favor by advocating  its cause if not overtly by proxy. This is happening on multiple dimensions ranging from mobilizing public opinion on local issues to beseiging its political opponents through litigation and popular protest.

#3 – remake the electoral landscape to suit its class rhetoric. The myriad challenges in the recognition of these newly granted Rights will ensure an abundance of victimhood that the Congress can conveniently exploit as is evident from the Vedanta episode

#4 - give a permanent stake to the Delhi based Left Liberal opinion making class (across the media, Judiciary and intelligenstia)  in law making and law enforcement as is evident from the dual role played by NAC members

#5 – distort the constitution with complex legislation that over the long term weakens the primary Institutions of the State, diffuses accountability while creating new special interests that no non-Congress government of the future can either displace or fully overcome

The BJP on account of its intellectual vaccum and myopia has shot itself in the foot by contributing unwittingly to this Left Liberal strategic shift in favor of the Congress.

What is worse the BJP still does not see a need to chart a fundamentally different course Legislatively or Politically to challenge the Congress.

The Congress under Sonia and Rahul Gandhi may be lacking in tactical political acumen as is evident from the political bungling over Telangana. But the mother and son duo have more than made up for that lack of tactical political leadership by effecting a long term strategic shift in favor of a messianic role for the dynasty. Unlike in the past this time they have nurtured a network of NGOs and Delhi based special interests to ensure the gains from this strategic shift are Institutionalized.

This has raised the threshold significantly against any effective politco-intellectual challenge to this” Rights based Left Liberal Agenda in favor of the Dynasty”.

The Indian voter does have a mind of its own. Electoral outcomes are far from pre-determined. The Congress has no immunity from the effects of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

This “Rights based Left Liberal agenda” may not guarantee electoral success to the Congress.

But it does queer the pitch in favor of the Congress forcing the BJP to play a me-too game. A game that does not come naturally to the BJP, thus making it look like an opportunistic B-Team of the Congress.

And we all know when given a choice between the Original and a pale imitation, what choice the voter will likely make !

Filed under: Assembly Polls 2009, bengal polls, betrayal of aam admi, Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, Dharmayudh-2009, economic freedom, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Indira Gandhi, Left Liberalism, Local Governance, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Maharashtra Polls 2009, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Maoist Terrorism, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Progressivism, Rajasthan Polls 2008, Telangana, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

August 22, 2010 • 8:06 pm 7

Math in the Mahabharata

Interesting account in Mahabharata on how Nala, later Yudhistra are taught Probability to get better at winning an Odds and Evens Dice game. The detailed account here

Here is an example of what that Odds and Evens Dice game must have looked like http://is.gd/ewx6X

Filed under: historical, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009

May 22, 2010 • 6:22 am 11

Indian Express editorializes fiction on Narendra Modi

It seems that the Indian Express is on a “bait Narendra Modi campaign” at the expense of  its credibility.

First the Indian Express came up with this rather colorful narrative yesterday of the events in a Planning Commission meeting with Gujarat Chief Minister and BJP leader Narendra Modi.

Next comes this editorial in which the Indian Express attempts to censure Mr. Modi based on that colorful narrative.

But here comes the problem for the Indian Express.

Syeda Hameed, the Planning Commission member who has been at the center of this imagined controversy, in a note to the Express pokes a hole into yesterday’s colorful, a hole so embarassingly big that it leads one to ask

Is the Indian Express now in the business of editorializing fiction ?

Syeda Hameed’s note makes two points amply clear

#1 There was no discord in yesterday’s Planning Commission meeting with Narendra Modi as has been insinuated by the Indian Express in its report yesterday

#2 There was also no attempt at “venting victimhood” by Mr. Narendra Modi as has been insinuated by the Indian Express in its editorial

It is puzzling that the Indian Express should have proceeded with the editorial on Mr. Modi even after Syeda Hameed had set the record straight on what exactly transpired at the meeting .

By doing so based on an imagined narrative and unsubstantiated facts  the Indian Express has betrayed its deep prejudice against Mr. Modi.

Despite all Modi’s attempts to refashion himself after the riots and talk a bland “development” talk seemingly emptied of ideology, there is no denying that his politics thrives on, and exploits, these social divisions.

The temerity with which the Indian Express arrogates to itself the right to demand accountability of Mr. Modi’s governance in Gujarat raises serious questions of its motives

 A question as important as this should not be taken over by bluster — and neither side in this confrontation should object to impartial, empirical facts on the state of Muslim welfare in Gujarat.

That motive becomes apparent when one recognizes a glaring ommission in today’s editorial line up in the Indian Express.

On a day when the rest of the media is critically appraising Manmohan Singh’s insipid political leadership, it is clear that the Indian Express’ anti-Modi editorial bluster is a lame attempt at deflecting attention from the UPA’s failings.

The Indian Express’ silence on Dr. Manmohan Singh’s uninspiring governance on the first anniversary of his second term, speaks volumes on its partisan.

This partisan attempt at editorializing fiction on Narendra Modi comes after a similar attempt at peddling blatant lies in an editorial.

With these partisan cheap shots at Narendra Modi and with its silence on the UPA’s performance, the Indian Express has permanently damaged its credibility, reducing itself to a mouthpiece of the ruling dispensation.

What a fall for an Institution that once counted amongst its editors the finest and the most fearless critics of the establishment.

Filed under: betrayal of aam admi, DesiPundit, Dharmayudh-2009, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Left Liberalism, Narendra Modi, Progressivism, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

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