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BJP’s 9 year drift ends, battle for 2014 begins – Column in Niti Central

Originally published here on Niti Central.

Battle for Lok Sabha has begun

The BJP has now been out of power at the Centre for nearly nine years. In these nine years, it has witnessed two Lok Sabha defeats, a patriarch fade away from public limelight, a promising star die an unnatural death, its tallest Leader a pale shadow of himself while the next generation of leaders in Delhi struggled to come of age. These nine years also saw some of its intellectual leading lights estranged, its policy stalwarts become anachronisms while the party itself in Delhi meandered from one agitation to another without a coherent ideological anchor.

The drift in the BJP’s centre ironically had the opposite effect in States ruled by it as a new generation of leaders emerged to hasten the federalisation of the BJP.

Last week’s National Executive followed by the National Council marks the culmination of the generational shift within the BJP. A process that reluctantly started in 2009 after the second successive defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. While the BJP attempted to show deep bench strength with younger leaders taking over the roles of Leaders of Opposition, it did not quite settle the leadership pecking order. Last week settled that issue with the most democratic of means possible within a political party in India. The groundswell of pressure from below made it unambiguously clear where the leadership pecking order starts from.


Congress sacrificing India for one family: Modi (Part- 1)


But last week was about something larger than just the leadership issue. The nine-year drift within the core of the BJP had taken its toll on even the most ardent and passionate of BJP supporters. Last week was about finally giving that faceless and nameless BJP worker a new hope that the drift had ended and that there was a new ‘mission’ at hand.

In a political culture where firing up the base with anger is the conventional norm, it does take creativity to deliver a speech that both raises the motivation of the lowest of the BJP ranks and also charges them with a mission to take a message of hope and aspiration to the people.


Congress sacrificing India for one family: Modi (Part-2)


Going beyond the superlative reactions and the usual griping it must be noted that Narendra Modi’s politically charged speech at the Talkatora Stadium in Delhi marks a significant departure from any of the BJP’s usual rhetoric since 2009.

There was none of the trademark hand-wringing that had come to symbolise the BJP’s political impulses since the successive Lok Sabha losses. There was also none of the petulant anger that was in ample display since the Lok Sabha defeat. Make no mistake, there was both passion and fire in this speech but it was not rooted in negative emotions, rather it sprung from hope and confidence of finally being able to mount a credible challenge to the Sonia Gandhi led UPA in the next Lok Sabha election.

If there was even the slightest of doubt in the hearts and minds of any BJP worker on this count, it was soon allayed as the UPA reacted with uncharacteristic alacrity to the Narendra Modi speech with the barrage of angry tweets from the Prime Minister’s media advisor, to the Union Information & Broadcasting Minister.

Narendra Modi framed the battle for the next Lok Sabha in clear terms to his audience – the party’s base with his exhortation that the BJP had to project itself as a credible alternative to the UPA in the minds of the voters. If there was disappointment in some quarters outside the BJP on the tone and substance of the speech it was misplaced for this was a speech to aimed squarely at the BJP’s base to send home the message that the nine-year drift had come to an end. This speech was about telling the demotivated BJP worker that for the first time after 9 years, the BJP has something positive to offer to the people while calling upon them to throw the Congress out of office. It was not a speech aimed at persuading fence-sitters nor was it a speech focused on laying out a Policy Roadmap. There is a time and place for those speeches but the primary task that needed to be accomplished was to get the BJP worker fired up over a new Mission.

But the speech was not entirely bereft of a broader message to the nation at large.

Three points stood out in the speech that even the most cynical of Narendra Modi critics will have to acknowledge. The first was that the next election had to be about something bigger than mere hope and change. It had to be about a billion aspirations, about dreaming big. The second point was on what constitutes reforms and on countering the UPA’s token measures being labeled as ‘reforms’. Even the most cynical fence sitter will appreciate the point the high bar that was set in the speech on what constitutes reforms – long term structural changes whose impact spans multiple decades. The third point was the clarion call to make the next election about freedom from poor governance and about creating demand for ‘good governance’.

All three of the above points in the speech went beyond the immediate focus of the speech aimed at the base to define the contours of the BJP’s platform for the next election.

Last but not the least, the speech’s pointed attacks on the Sonia Gandhi-led NAC, on the unnatural arrangement between Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi of vesting power without any responsibility on the Nehru-Gandhi family and on the dismal performance of the Prime Minister were a reminder that the UPA had to first account for its sins for the past nine years before attempting a course correction from its faltering ‘aam admi agenda’ as it has tried to since the Chintan Shivir in Jaipur and most recently in the Budget speech.

The message emerging from the BJP’s National Council after the murky circumstances in which it effected its recent leadership change is that the drift of the nine years is a matter of the past. There is a new hope and a new de facto leader with a deep bench of supporting leaders each with their unique value addition. If Shivraj Singh Chauhan’s speech reminded of the need for gender sensitivity, LK Advani’s speech sought to allay minority anxieties and apprehensions, Arun Jaitley’s speech focused on policy nitty-gritties and Sushma Swaraj’s speech elevated the discourse as the BJP’s conscience reminding of the need to work as team.

Narendra Modi’s speech underlined that team spirit with the clear message that the debate on Prime Ministerial candidate was secondary; the mission to uproot the Congress was primary.

The battle for the next Lok Sabha has verily begun. The alacrity with which Congress spin doctors scrambled to rebut Narendra Modi’s speech on social media is a sign that it has already conceded the psychological advantage to the challenger despite being a two term incumbent.

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Filed under: India Budget, India Elections 2009, India Elections 2014, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Narendra Modi, Neo Aspirational class, Neo Middle Class, New Middle Class, Offstumped, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

The Nandan Nilekani wild card

When Shekhar Gupta writes two Op-eds on the drift in the UPA it’s a signal of sorts. Before we get too carried away let us be clear this is not a “Dileep Padgaonkar” moment (for those who were not old enough, Dileep Padgaonkar who was once TOI’s chief editor, famously claimed it was the second most important job in the country).

The reason this is a signal is because of the extent to which the Shekha Gupta editorial bureau in the Indian Express had been invested in the Manmohan Singh PMO until recently. So when Shekhar Gupta starts to describe the UPA 2.0 as lameduck it is a sign of diminishing future returns from that investment.

Now conventional wisdom would have us believe that this maybe about an imminent succession to the heir apparent. But then Shekhar Gupta is not exactly betting on a heir apparent lead PMO. In fact Shekhar Gupta is not hedging his bets on any of the known suspects taking over the PMO while being quite forthright in describing the incumbent as lame duck.

This begs the question – what does he know that the rest of us don’t ?

Perhaps it’s that the heir apparent doesn’t exactly want to hold public office ?

The drift in the Congress is better explained if we were to go with the working hypothesis that Rahul Gandhi does not want to become Prime Minister. The public jostling between Digvijay Singh and P. Chidambaram and the running down of Kapil Sibal by lightweight Members of Parliament is indicative of the high stakes game that’s underway, positioning for a post Manmohan Singh scenario.

But then who says Sonia Gandhi is about to replace a non-politician with a career politician ?

Sonia Gandhi’s ascent to the longest Presidency has been marked by an emasculation of career politicians. Narasimha Rao has all but been erased from public memory. Sitaram Kesri had no idea what hit him before e faded into the oblivion. Arjun Singh paid a steep price to retain some semblance of self-respect. While destiny took care of potential challengers the rebels like Pawar have long been cut to size.

The only career politicians in the Congress with a future are those who have completely submitted themselves to the basic Nehru Gandhi Contract. We are already witnessing in Andhra what happens when the Nehru-Gandhi contracts is subordinated by a regional satrap.

So as much as Chidambaram, Digvijay Singh and Kapil Sibal maybe positioning themselves for a post Manmohan scenario it is highly unlikely the Nehru-Gandhi contract will be subordinated in favor of a career politician.

What about the Minority/Dalit card ?

This trial balloon has been floated before. The Congress is acutely aware that it needs to play both the vote banks subtly to be in power. It will dole out symbolic posts but won’t go beyond that.

Which brings us to the question of what kind of non-politician serves Nehru-Gandhi interests best ?

It can’t be NGO-activists of the NAC mould. They have their uses outside the business of government. But more importantly the Nehru-Gandhis need the aura of benevolence almost exclusively to themselves. Their brand of messianic politics depends on that exclusivity.

Hence the man running the business of government must be a technocrat in the Manmohan Singh mould to appeal to the Middle Class while not diluting the Nehru-Gandhi brand in the eyes of the BPL class.

Which brings us to the question of which Technocrat might that be ?

Of all the technocrat lateral entrants to the Congress extended family, Nandan Nilekani has been the most low profile, keeping above controversies while maintaining a laser focus on his job. As a successful author with a reformist mindset and a wealth creator he is a middle class role model in the Manmohan Singh mould. He also is a unique position bridging Rahul Gandhi’s 2 India’s though the UID project.

If one were to hedge bets on the most likely non-politician to succeed Manmohan Singh it would be Nandan Nilekani - a choice with the potential to blow the wind of the sails of the Opposition. This is not to say the choice is not without it’s risks. As a Corporate product a Nilekani’ ability to manage political contradictions will be far more limited than a Manmohan Singh. But then the Nehru-Gandhi brand has demonstrated tremendous resilience in weathering political failings.

So if indeed Rahul Gandhi opts out of public office and a technocrat is sprung up, what does it mean to the BJP ?

The BJP’s or a 3rd front’s odds of electoral success in a Lok Sabha election largely rest on monumental bungling by the Congress. To date, despite all the political setbacks, the credibility of the Nehru Gandhi remains unaffected. For the current electoral trend in favor of the Congress to reverse, a necessary precondition is an issue on which the Nehru-Gandhis are held personally responsible causing irreversible damage to their credibility.

It would be a foolish strategy on the part of the BJP to hitch it’s fortunes on the likelihood of that happening. By staying out of office the Nehru-Gandhis have bought sufficient insurance.

In the absence of such monumental bungling and if challenged by a non-politician technocrat, the BJP will face a steep challenge in finding it’s path back to power with most of it’s current leadership weighed down by political baggage of one kind or the other.

In the absence of a new grassroots movement that effects a fundamental shift in the political landscape, the imperatives of this Nehru-Gandhi strategic calculus demand that the BJP start looking for a fresh face without any political baggage preferably outside it’s fold to be viable in 2019 if not in 2014.

Related tweets:

There we go people summarizing the known and tucked deep inside the piece a hint on the unknown LT “@pragmatic_d http://is.gd/eWQgg” about 1 hour ago via Twitter for iPhone

This is why a non-politician technocrat http://j.mp/bnPhnL will complete the picture about 2 hours ago via Twitter for iPhone

RT “@KanchanGupta: @offstumped You wrongly credit Dileep P It was Giri who famously said ‘ToI editor’s job is the second most important.’”

Filed under: India Lok Sabha Elections 2009

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