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Politics and Public Policy in India

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

Rights based Left Liberalism has queered the pitch

Recent tweets

  • Must read highlights cognitive dissonance within UPA RT “@cbcnn_Pilid: Kaushik Basu’s full paper on Fin min website http://bit.ly/cheJ8Z
  • Interesting coincidence RT “@pragmatic_d: Shekhar Gupta on Congress’ left-turn. http://is.gd/eHzQ6
  • But Shekhar Gupta must realize this left ward drift is significantly different from the earlier ones on two counts
  • It has not concentrated power in State instead it has marginalized it devolving power to quasi-constitutional bodies with no accountability
  • In doing so it has created a stake for a new class of leftist special interests going far beyond delhi’s leftist intellectual circles
  • There in lies the long term damage to the Constitutional Institutions and to Governance
  • Disagree with @swapan55 http://j.mp/9Qw1Kd backroom interventions in Parliament are not same as taking a coherent public position on policy
  • Let us be clear there is only one credible yardstick to measure if BJP is on it’s way to recovery or not
  • That yardstick is the degree to which BJP challenges the Congress’ left liberalism at it’s very root through direct public policy positions
  • All else like this intervention on nuclear liability issue is just feel good politics that’s far from making lasting impact on it’s fortunes
  • Urgently needed – a “Values based Constitutionalism” to pose a credible challenge to the Sonia Rahul “Rights based Entitlement Left Liberalism”
  • Absolutely true federalism will be a key constiutional value RT “@raoabhijeet: @offstumped Alternative is True Federalism”
  • BJP’s current non-strategy can be summed up: Nation will tire of Congress. Let us be non-shrill enough to be acceptable to lead a non-Congress coalition
  • Hence BJP non-strategy requires not taking strong ideological policy position against Left Liberal entitlements to humor noncongress rag tag
  • Need more proof that Rights based Entitlements have queered the pitch for Congress http://j.mp/dufX3j
  • That LK Advani could not think of a single Rural Enterprise success story as theme for Peepli Live and only NREGA came to his mind says lot
  • RT “@centerofright: @offstumped he shld hv read @rashmibansal‘s stay hungry stay foolish or connect the dots, both have good examples”

Original Blog Post

In 2007 then BJP National Vice President and Lok Sabha MP from Orissa Juel Oram had raised the banner of protest in Orissa against the state government’s move to sanction prospective license (PL) to Posco for mining at Khandadhar iron ore reserve. Two years before in 2005 Juel Oram had this to say of his opposition to mining projects in Orissa

displacement will affect the socio-economic conditions of the people and this is a major issue. “When a project comes up in any locality it affects not only the tribal people, but also the community as a whole,” says Oram. He has been vehemently opposing the12-million-tonne POSCO steel project near Paradip. Thousands of people who were displaced by the Rourkela Steel Plant, the Hirakud dam, the Rengali dam, and many other medium and small projects have not been compensated till date, he says.

But for Juel Oram’s opposition there is not much to glean from the last 5 years on where exactly the BJP stands on the issues related to Mining from the point of view of the environment and more importantly the Forest Rights Act. On the Forest Rights Act itself there is little that can be found by way of an informed policy position from the BJP. There are stray stories on Chattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh demanding speedy implementation of the Act and later on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi claiming credit for its implementation in his state. But beyond that there just is little to glean on

#1 what exactly was the BJP’s contribution to the debate on this legislation

#2 if there was an informed point of view on this Legislation that was both rooted in its political ideology and was derived from an enlightened political/electoral strategy

#3 if there was even an attempt by the BJP to influence public opinion one way or the other on the various aspects of the Act to bring to bear pressure on the UPA in shaping the contours of this Act

The story is not very much different when one looks at the BJP’s role in shaping and influencing other key Entitlement programs succesfully legislated by the UPA as Constitutional Rights.

Let us take the case of NREGA to which every BJP ruled state government has been a willing party. But for stray election time remarks on NREGA there has hardly been any firm political opposition to it. But for this criticism from Yashwant Sinha, it is hard to find any strong position on the NREGA. Only belatedly Narendra Modi has spoken up on corruption within the NREGA but not much beyond.

The BJP’s approach on Right to Education, RTE is no different either nor do we see any well formed position on the proposed Food Security bill.

So what we have here is the BJP mostly reacting to the Congress’ left liberal “rights based agenda”, riding on its bandwagon in states where it is in power while being mostly clueless on the long term strategic implications of this “rights based left liberal law making”.

The Vedanta episode highlights how these Rights based  laws like the FRA have effected a long term strategic advantage to the Congress. The Rights based Agenda allows the Congress to

#1 – appropriate a messianic political role making any opposition to its agenda look petty and belligerent

#2 – give a stake to a nationwide network of NGO activists who in turn return the favor by advocating  its cause if not overtly by proxy. This is happening on multiple dimensions ranging from mobilizing public opinion on local issues to beseiging its political opponents through litigation and popular protest.

#3 – remake the electoral landscape to suit its class rhetoric. The myriad challenges in the recognition of these newly granted Rights will ensure an abundance of victimhood that the Congress can conveniently exploit as is evident from the Vedanta episode

#4 - give a permanent stake to the Delhi based Left Liberal opinion making class (across the media, Judiciary and intelligenstia)  in law making and law enforcement as is evident from the dual role played by NAC members

#5 – distort the constitution with complex legislation that over the long term weakens the primary Institutions of the State, diffuses accountability while creating new special interests that no non-Congress government of the future can either displace or fully overcome

The BJP on account of its intellectual vaccum and myopia has shot itself in the foot by contributing unwittingly to this Left Liberal strategic shift in favor of the Congress.

What is worse the BJP still does not see a need to chart a fundamentally different course Legislatively or Politically to challenge the Congress.

The Congress under Sonia and Rahul Gandhi may be lacking in tactical political acumen as is evident from the political bungling over Telangana. But the mother and son duo have more than made up for that lack of tactical political leadership by effecting a long term strategic shift in favor of a messianic role for the dynasty. Unlike in the past this time they have nurtured a network of NGOs and Delhi based special interests to ensure the gains from this strategic shift are Institutionalized.

This has raised the threshold significantly against any effective politco-intellectual challenge to this” Rights based Left Liberal Agenda in favor of the Dynasty”.

The Indian voter does have a mind of its own. Electoral outcomes are far from pre-determined. The Congress has no immunity from the effects of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

This “Rights based Left Liberal agenda” may not guarantee electoral success to the Congress.

But it does queer the pitch in favor of the Congress forcing the BJP to play a me-too game. A game that does not come naturally to the BJP, thus making it look like an opportunistic B-Team of the Congress.

And we all know when given a choice between the Original and a pale imitation, what choice the voter will likely make !

Filed under: Assembly Polls 2009, bengal polls, betrayal of aam admi, Chattisgarh Polls 2008, Chhattisgarh Polls 2008, Delhi Polls 2008, Dharmayudh-2009, economic freedom, Gujarat Polls 2007, India Elections 2009, India Lok Sabha Elections 2009, Indira Gandhi, Left Liberalism, Local Governance, Lok Sabha Polls 2008-2009, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Madhya Pradesh Polls 2008, Maharashtra Polls 2009, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Maoist Terrorism, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Progressivism, Rajasthan Polls 2008, Telangana, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

India Emergency 35th Anniversary – chronology of events

The campaign of hate unleashed by the Congress against Amitabh Bacchan on account of his being brand Ambassador for Narendra Modi ruled Gujarat , had an unintended side effect.

Unsavoury aspects of the Congress’ conduct during Emergency re-surfaced in the public debate.

Details that have all but been erased from public memory.

A less told legacy of the Emergency was the Cultural Policing and Censorship exercised during Emergency by then then Indira Gandhi regime on many Hindi movies including

an unwritten ban on broadcasting Kishore Kumar songs during the Emergency because the singer had the temerity to refuse to perform at a Youth Congress rally.

Much more sinister than the Cultural Policing and Censorship were of course the many Political detentions and the infamous forced sterilization campaign.

Amnesty International puts the number of arrests without trials at around 140,000.

Google News Archive provides a fascinating first hand glimpse into news stories of the time as the State of Emergency unfolded over 21 months under the Indira Gandhi regime.

  1.  
    1. Google News Archive – May 1975 Warnings on Democracy waning in India
    2. Google News Archive June 1975 Emergency is declared
    3. Google News Archive July 1975 Political Parties banned
    4. Google News Archive August 1975 Only 10,000 jailed
    5. Google News Archive Sept 1975 Indira Gandhi says Discipline is now a fact of life
    6. Google News Archive Oct 1975 NYTimes on Censorship of Indian Press and Indira Gandhi orders Total Prohibition
    7. Google News Archive Nov 1975 First murmurs on Population Control measures
    8. Google News Archive Dec 1975 Indira Gandhi postpones elections
    9. Google News Archive Jan 1976 Government take over of Newspapers
    10. Google News Archive Feb 1976 Public rallies banned, Journalists expelled, tighter controls on Press
    11. Google News Archive March 1976 Over 100,000 political prisoners
    12. New York Times April 1976 Indira Gandhi moving from Dictatorship to Dynasty, Total Censorship
    13. New York Times May 1976 Indira Gandhi adamant on birth control
    14. Google News Archive June 1976 Allegattions of Prisoner Torture
    15. Google News Archive July 1976 Indira Gandhi wages war on Press
    16. Google News Archive August 1976 Press battles Indira Gandhi regime
    17. New York Times Sept 1976 Indira Gandhi asks Parliament for sweeping powers constitutional ammendments
    18. Google News Archive Oct 1976 Elections postponed for another year
    19. Google News Archive Nov 1976 Constitutional Ammendments approved
    20. Google News Archive Dec 1976 Controversies on Sanjay Gandhi’s actions surface
    21. Google News Archive Jan 1977 Political Opposition gains ground
    22. New York Times Feb 1977 Arun Jaitley’s release from Jail
    23. Google News Archive March 1977 Indira Gandhi trounced in Elections after 21 months of Emergency

Tribunals set up after the 1977 elections failed to put either Indira Gandhi or members of her regime on trial for excesses committed during the State of Emergency.

33 years after the Emergency it must be asked what of reparations to the victims ?

Filed under: DesiPundit, Emergency Reparations, Indira Gandhi, Narendra Modi, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

RSS Now Playing on Offstumped Live

  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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