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Politics and Public Policy in India

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

Uttar Pradesh Results 2012 – Live Blogging

Many reputations are on the line as Uttar Pradesh and the other states count their votes.

Will the tsunami predicted for the Samajwadi Party by CNN-IBN and CSDS’ Yogendra Yadav manifest in a near absolute majority ?

Will Punjab persist with its flip-flop trend of voting out incumbents ?

Will Uttarakhand go the way of Goa and other small states from stable bipolarity to unstable multipolarity ?

Will Manohar Parrikar make a comeback in Goa ?

Finally who among the BJP, BSP and Congress will end up with bragging rights if not prizes for coming second, third and fourth in Uttar Pradesh ?

Follow Offstumped live during the coverage of the counting of votes in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa at the below:

More updates as the day unfolds …..

For the complete archive of the full coverage of Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012 so far including pre-poll and post poll podcasts, all OpEds, all BlogPosts and the detailed phase wise, seat by seat analysis click here.

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Internet Hindus, Live Events, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped on Twitter, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

An Evelyn Beatrice Hall test for Indian Liberals

As news comes in of the registration of a FIR against Janata Party President and now famous litigator in the Supreme Court over the high profile 2G spectrum scam Dr. Subramaniam Swamy one is reminded of this phrase written by Evelyn Beatrice Hall in her biography of Voltaire (a quote that is often wrongly attributed to Voltaire himself)

 ”I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it”

The piece in question here was a piece by Dr. Swamy in the DNA that was deconstructed and roundly criticized by this blogger and many others. Dr. Swamy’s bigoted views notwithstanding there are no grounds for a criminal case against him. Dr. Swamy’s piece was neither issued an immediate call to violence nor rationalized acts of violence. In fact if anything Dr. Swamy’s proposed agenda, as misconceived and wrong it may have been, was to be achieved by the most Constitutional of means – a Parliamentary Majority and a Legislative process of Constitutional Amendments.

In a country where Liberals have routinely stood up to defend Leftist voices over freedom of speech ranging from Arundhati Roy’s defense of Kashmiri separatism to Binayak Sen’s alleged acts of sedition, Dr. Swamy’s piece is an interesting test case.

How many Indian Liberals will put themselves up to the Evelyn Beatrice Hall test and stand up to defend his right to free speech ?

Filed under: Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism

Sadbhavana Mission of a personal kind inspired by Ambedkar

Originally published in Rediff.Com on 15th Sept 2011, this must be read in conjunction with the series on National Reconciliation Part 1 and Part 2.

‘In this country both the minorities and the majorities have followed a wrong path. It is wrong for the majority to deny the existence of minorities. It is equally wrong for the minorities to perpetuate themselves. A solution must be found which will serve a double purpose. It must recognise the existence of the minorities to start with. It must also be such that it will enable majorities and minorities to merge someday into one.’

That was Dr B R Ambedkar speaking in the Constituent Assembly on November 4, 1948 while introducing the Draft Constitution. In the same speech, Dr Ambedkar went on to lay out a vision for an assimilated India [ Images ] where identity based demographic faultlines cease to exist.

‘To diehards who have developed a kind of fanaticism against minority protection I would like to say two things. One is that minorities are an explosive force which, if it erupts, can blow up the whole fabric of the State… the minorities in India have agreed to place their existence in the hands of the majority… they have loyally accepted the rule of the majority which is basically a communal majority and not a political majority.’

‘It is for the majority to realise its duty not to discriminate against minorities. Whether the minorities will continue or will vanish must depend upon this habit of the majority. The moment the majority loses the habit of discriminating against the minority, the minorities can have no ground to exist. They will vanish.’

Dr Ambedkar’s vision of an assimilated India where communal distinctions become irrelevant is neither utopian nor alien to India.

In fact this kind of fusion is what resulted in the way of life that we today broadly label as Hinduism. Without getting into a detailed discourse it would suffice to pin point the Intellectual Thought Leaders who made that fusion possible by reconciling ancient animosities through a compact that created a new way of life — modern for its times.

Vashishtha who lost his son and Pulastya who lost his many kinsmen found it within themselves to forge that compact. A testimony to that compact which is the foremost of Puranas — the Vishnu [ Images ] Purana that has Vashishtha’s grandson Parashara overcoming his victimhood (for his father’s murder) to receive insights from Pulastya.

The process of assimilation and fusion over the years in this way of life is best appreciated by the vast pantheon of symbols and icons where there is always room for the modern and the ancient.

Unfortunately over the past few decades no serious and sincere attempts have been made to accomplish such an assimilation or fusion. While one has seen many government initiatives in the name of ‘national integration’ they have been superficial at best. The ‘National Integration Council’ has become a vestige, as was exemplified by charade that played out in Delhi [ Images ] last weekend.

If there is one lesson we can take from that charade it is that government cannot be the vehicle to deal with what is essentially a socio-cultural phenomenon. This, however, puts us in a quandary for identity based demographic faultlines have been the basis for a perverse culture of politics.

Should India be condemned to suffer vote bank politics forever?

It is a tragedy that we have allowed demographic faultlines to be used as a political wedge issue. It is time to attempt a mission that will over time permanently bury these demographic faultlines.

We lament corruption, yet we fail to recognise that when immoral politics are accorded moral sanction using identity as a wedge, such corruption is an inevitable outcome.

For far too long the Muslim community in India has been emotionally blackmailed into voting out of fear even if it meant voting against the socio-economic interests of many within the Muslim community.

Make no mistake — this week’s orders by the Supreme Court on the 2002 Gujarat riots, will be twisted to pursue even greater fear mongering, in upcoming state elections — especially the all important Uttar Pradesh [ Images ] assembly election.

The moment calls for creative and imaginative political moves to ensure the process of reconciliation takes a visible and concrete shape. A dialogue must begin on why the Indian Muslim community must always condemn itself to voting out of fear. A dialogue must also begin on why the Indian Muslim community, in doing so, must continue to hurt its economic interests while patronising vested interests who use that fear as a wedge to sustain themselves politically.

Shifting demographics pose a challenge, but they also present an opportunity. The demographic challenge must be taken head on to make its many faultlines irrelevant. Our response to shifting demographics must not be more vote bank politics. Our response has to be to make politics that uses demographic identity as a wedge, less and less relevant.

Truth and Reconciliation have become a buzzword lately in a different part of the country. But as we have seen with the ‘National Integration Council’, the effectiveness of such a process is highly questionable if government is seen to be the vehicle. Ultimately this is about leadership by personal example and social change where government has a limited or no role at all.

Let me close with an anecdote from a visit to a Parsi family during which I discovered Ganesha and Zarathustra sitting next to each other in a sacred corner in that home. There on that sacred personal bench was assimilation and fusion blurring a 4,000-year-old civilisation faultline.

In keeping with our ancient ethos of assimilation and fusion through inclusivity we must heed Ambedkar’s words so the distinction between Majority and Minority ceases to exist. We can do so with a small beginning that costs nothing.

Let us dedicate an empty corner in our own private sacred bench for a formless god. Perhaps that may give sincerity to this mission to reconcile our true feelings — Sadbhavana.

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Ambedkarite Constitutionalism, Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, Internet Hindus, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi, War on Mumbai, War on Terror

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  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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