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Politics and Public Policy in India

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

Looking to 2012 and beyond – Why “Trust” must become the overarching political narrative

Originally published in The Pioneer. As we bid good bye to 2011 and embrace 2012 a look ahead to why restoration of “Trust” within our public discourse will have to be the dominant political theme, the defining trait in the quest to discover the next Vajpayee

The most bizarre of controversies to plague India in recent times is playing out down south between the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. No it is not over the new rage on YouTube – “Why this Kolaveri di”. But you could as well say that of the mood down south over the Mullaperiyar Dam and of the political atmosphere across the country in general.

While facts have been a casualty in the political debate over the Mullaperiyar Dam, much anxiety and paranoia has been fuelled by rumors and speculation. The lack of trust between the people of the two states is so wide today that it has affected vehicular trade across their state borders while also leading to stray incidents of political violence. Many open letters and public statements by leaders on both sides and from Delhi notwithstanding, the trust deficit remains undiminished with perhaps fatigue over the issue being the only near term hope for it to fade away into the background.

The Mullaperiyar episode in many ways is symptomatic of the larger malaise that has afflicted both politics and much of governance in India over the past few years. The abject lack of Trust in the public space is the single most challenge to Political Parties both in Government and outside it if they nurture any hope of advancing their agenda.

It is this same lack of Trust that manifests itself routinely today in the name of “Civil Society” activism that has lead to a second guessing of the agencies of the State be it in the area of investigative law enforcement or in the process of Justice Delivery. Every incident is an encounter, every encounter is suspect, every agency is compromised and just about every aggrieved soul needs an “Independent” investigation.

The lack of trust is so pervasive within our public discourse that we have a glut of conspiracy theorists on just about any issue. The recent FDI in Retail debate was illuminating for the number of conspiracy theories it spawned from allegations of massive lobbying by Walmart to the Congres’ dire need for funds for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. The decision was simultaneously a conspiracy of foreign forces against Indian middlemen, a conspiracy of Indian farmers against the Indian consumer and lastly a conspiracy of Indian Retailers against Indian Retailers. It is no surprise that in this environment of trust deficiency, common sense has become the casualty. In its extreme avatar the death of common sense has manifested itself in Swadeshi theories that celebrate the sanctity of informal barter while exorcising the evil of Legal Contracts.

The long list of stalled legislation, rolled-back or suspended Executive Decisions and Projects stuck in a limbo is often blamed on a lack of consensus when in fact the real reason is the atmosphere distrust within which such consensus building is apparently attempted. Every contentious issue today has become a matter of perceived Rights and imagined Wrongs. The deep sense of entitlement with which every impacted group of a given decision have been encouraged to politick has created a culture where nothing on offer is ever enough, there is always something more to be asked and last but not the least someone is always out to get you.

It must be asked of the Sonia Gandhi lead Congress and its assorted eco-system of Left Lib NGO Activists on the degree to which their “Rights based Entitlements” agenda has actually contributed to this deep Trust deficit as they fostered a sense of victimhood in almost every electorally significant demographic segment. The deeply flawed Forest Rights Acts and its highly contentious process by which community claims are made on land has had the net effect of sowing deep distrust over major Industrial projects like POSCO and Vedanta in Orissa. The inflationary MGNREGS scheme now has the dubious distinction of sowing deep distrust between Local governments and state governments on the one hand and state governments and the central government on the other paving the way for anti-federal interventions by agencies of the State and Civil Society busybodies. The RTI activism cottage industry has not resulted in any significant change in the processes of Government but has instead ensured an air of permanent distrust prevails where all decisions are suspect and there is always a scam lurking in the background.

For every report there is a counter-report, for every claim there is a counter claim while leaks have become the routine norm. There is no longer a single version of the Truth. Nothing exemplifies this better than the manner in which the credibility of the CAG as an Institution has been diluted with the competing claims on the size of loss to the exchequer in the 2G scam. Truth has become the casualty in this climate of competitive politics and it has come to affect the judicial process. The many false claims that have come to light in the Amit Shah episode in the Supreme Court are a sad commentary on how aspersions have been cast on the Judiciary of a state to settle political scores.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta in comments to the Indian Express recently lamented, how the Law and Order process had been vitiated in almost every episode with a communal angle. The lack of trust between extreme activists on either end of the Communal spectrum is not new. But the manner in which the Delhi based media and Left leaning intellectuals have politicized the investigation process in so many cases has now lead us to a situation where no verdict at any level will be taken as the last word. This malaise has now extended to the judicial process straddling other parochial fault-lines as well from Kashmir to Punjab as we recently witnessed the ridiculous political grandstanding over commuting of death sentences awarded to convicted terrorists.

Trust is dangerously close to becoming extinct from our public space. We may regale ourselves over clever by half political games being played by our favored side little realizing that we are now collectively in a quicksand. It no longer matters who steps on whom, we are all set to sink.

Consensus needed for radical change cannot be negotiated in this environment of distrust.  The tune “Why this Kolaveri di” may have united a nation by capturing the sentiment of the moment. We are yet to see leadership emerge that can overcome this murderous rage of distrust.

Come 2014, far more than the arithmetic of feel-good acceptability in coalition politics, the dire need will be for Leadership that can inspire Trust across the many political fault-lines that have fragmented this nation.

Filed under: Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, betrayal of aam admi, Left Liberalism, Local Governance, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

Of Celebrity Dissenters and unsung First Responders

A curious phenomenon is playing out at editorial desks and TV studios over delinquent cop Sanjiv Bhatt’s arrest on charges of intimidating, coercing a constable KD Pant into filing a false affidavit. The Times of India in a bizarre editorial titled “Don’t Muzzle Dissent” went from batting for a discredited Sanjiv Bhatt to raising extraneous issues like Narendra Modi not attending the BJP national executive. The irony of doing so was perhaps lost on the Times of India’s editorial desk, leaving one to wonder who’s “Muzzled Dissent” was the Times more worked up about :) ?

The Times of India’s lack of appreciation of irony in its own commentary notwithstanding, its advocacy of celebrity dissenter Sanjiv Bhatt against an unknown and unsung K.D. Pant, needs to be taken seriously.

Surely the Times of India does not expect the enforcement of the Rule of Law and the process of Justice Delivery in Gujarat to operate at the pleasure of  the Times’ moral relativism. Surely the Times of India would also agree that the rule of law and the process of Justice in Gujarat needs to work all the time, every time for everyone and not just preferentially for celebrity dissenters and opportunistically for select left liberal causes that the Times sympathizes with.

A Police Constable is not just a First Responder in times of crisis but is also the last line of defense against many crimes and acts of terror. No nation or society can be secure if it is insensitive to over Justice to its First Responders.

An act of intimidation and coercion of a First Responder is a serious matter that needs to be fully investigated and prosecuted if found to be true. If found to be false, exemplary punishment must be handed out to the said First Responder for having implicated a fellow Officer at the tax payers expense. Either way the process of Justice must take its logical course without any kind of left liberal second guessing from editorial desks and television studios.

It would be sheer callousness on the part of the state of Gujarat and also irresponsible of the state of Gujarat if it were to ignore such a serious matter of coercion and intimidation of a First Responder.

K.D. Panth unlike Sanjiv Bhatt is no celebrity dissenter.

There will likely be no Times of India editorial in K.D. Panth’s defense, no candle light vigils will be held by civil society demanding justice for K.D. Panth, nor will there be any directives from the Union Ministry of Home expressing concern over K.D. Panth’s well being.

It is a reflection on the kind of society we have become that first responders like K.D. Pant are not only taken for granted but their demand for Justice is at best considered a nuisance and at worst a moral inconvenience.

The Times of India’s right to dissent against the manner in which the process of Justice in Gujarat works is not in question here. The Times of India is welcome to exercise its freedom in support of celebrity dissenters and left liberal causes of its choice but it must not be at the expense of those who put their lives on the line for the people of Gujarat.

Will the Times of India please spare Gujarat’s First Responders of its meddlesome moral relativism , lest it  forget the next time terror strikes or the unforeseen happens:

it will be an unsung K.D. Pant who will be putting his life on the line to defend the Times of India’s freedom to exercise its dissent over Security in Gujarat

Filed under: Anna Hazare, Left Liberalism, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

An Evelyn Beatrice Hall test for Indian Liberals

As news comes in of the registration of a FIR against Janata Party President and now famous litigator in the Supreme Court over the high profile 2G spectrum scam Dr. Subramaniam Swamy one is reminded of this phrase written by Evelyn Beatrice Hall in her biography of Voltaire (a quote that is often wrongly attributed to Voltaire himself)

 ”I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it”

The piece in question here was a piece by Dr. Swamy in the DNA that was deconstructed and roundly criticized by this blogger and many others. Dr. Swamy’s bigoted views notwithstanding there are no grounds for a criminal case against him. Dr. Swamy’s piece was neither issued an immediate call to violence nor rationalized acts of violence. In fact if anything Dr. Swamy’s proposed agenda, as misconceived and wrong it may have been, was to be achieved by the most Constitutional of means – a Parliamentary Majority and a Legislative process of Constitutional Amendments.

In a country where Liberals have routinely stood up to defend Leftist voices over freedom of speech ranging from Arundhati Roy’s defense of Kashmiri separatism to Binayak Sen’s alleged acts of sedition, Dr. Swamy’s piece is an interesting test case.

How many Indian Liberals will put themselves up to the Evelyn Beatrice Hall test and stand up to defend his right to free speech ?

Filed under: Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism

RSS Now Playing on Offstumped Live

  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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Opinions expressed on this site using the alias Offstumped are the blogger's personal opinions and do not in any way reflect the views of the blogger's Employers.