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Politics and Public Policy in India

March 6, 2012 • 10:32 am 34

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

December 30, 2011 • 12:21 am 1

Lokpal – Rajya Sabha Stalls what Lok Sabha passed, UPA exposed

Blog Post Updated with Latest from Lokpal Debate in Rajya Sabha on 29th Dec:

The farce over the Lokpal could not have ended with sweeter irony than to the tune of Vande Mataram marking the abrupt adjournment of the Rajya Sabha session. The moment reminded one of the poignant ending of the political satire “Jaane Bhi Do Yaaron” as a pair of whistleblower Journalists march to Jail to the tune of “Hum honge kamiyaab”.

The concept of the Lokpal was flawed, the Government’s 2011 bill was half-baked but the events in the Rajya Sabha were farcical beyond the pale.

The silver lining of course is the manner in which Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi’s stewardship of the Government stands exposed. While Rahul Gandhi will have to live down the embarrassment of  his half baked game changer proposal being defeated, Sonia Gandhi will have to forever bear the ignominy of her party running away from Parliament.

The UPA has no credibility left, unfortunately though we are stuck with this lame duck government for some more time thanks to the collective  insecurities of the political class .

Original Blog post on Lokpal Bill being passed by Lok Sabha

Perhaps this is what you get when you guilt trip the entire political class into doing something that none of them believe in.

As was suspected earlier in August of 2011 the political consensus that emerged post black-mail by Anna Hazare’s fast meant that a half baked Lokpal Bill was inevitable. The Lok Sabha has passed the bill while drama ensued over the Constitutional amendment with Leader of Opposition Sushma Swaraj pointing out the UPA’s technical tardiness in complying with the rules. Ultimately Rahul Gandhi’ “game changing” dream lay shattered with the Opposition voting down the associated Constitutional Amendment.

There is still half of a battle left in the Rajya Sabha but if the “secular” walkouts witnessed today in the Lok Sabha by the SP and the BSP are anything to go by then the debate in Rajya Sabha is likely to be of mere academic value than of real legislative consequence. But given the Congress’ monumental incompetence no surprises or reverses must be ruled out.

The real test for this half baked Lokpal once fully passed will likely be in the Courts specifically on the provisions for Quota within the Lokpal. It will be interesting though who will mount that legal challenge given how coy Team Anna has been about the quota issue.

Where Team Anna goes from here is an open question, with much of the streets anger fizzled out and Delhi’s media studios lining up to cheerlead Rahul Gandhi all the way to the Uttar Pradesh polls on his “game changing” moves despite the UPA’s tardiness.

2011 showed us the brilliant tactician that Arvind Kejriwal was but perhaps he forgot the old adage – “beware of what you ask for, you might actually get it”.  Contriving further public anger on this half baked Lokpal will be tough. Will 2012 show us if there is a patient strategist lurking somewhere inside him to build on this to launch a political platform, shake up Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress in general and Rahul Gandhi in particular end 2011 on a promising note having tucked away both Religion based Quotas and the credit for a politically correct Lokpal. What electoral dividends this brings in UP is an open question but it blunts much of the Opposition’s fire save for the glee of having embarrassed Rahul Gandhi.

All said and done once the dust over the Parliamentary vote settles, as far as Uttar Pradesh polls go the Congress gets the credit for the Bill that the BSP and SP walked out on and the BJP voted against.

The BJP made a monumental mistake batting for Lokpal as Team Anna’s B-Team. It now stands with neither the credit for the Lokpal having opposed the bill in Lok Sabha and nor as the beneficiary any residual public anger against this half-baked Lokpal as Team Anna itself stares at the Law Diminishing Returns.

The defeat of the Constitutional Amendment is a tactical win for the BJP at best. It denies bragging rights to Rahul, makes his media cheerleaders look like asses but beyond that it doesn’t fetch much.  It has not stalled or reversed the half baked Bill unless some magic happens in the Rajya Sabha.

Its over to Arun Jaitley for now  !

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2007 Archive, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

September 27, 2011 • 6:58 pm 8

Sudheendra Kulkarni’s thought crime makes all of us guilty

To say that the process of Justice in India has not always been less than exemplary is an understatement. But today saw a new low with Sudheendra Kulkarni being sent to jail on the infamous 2008 cash for votes scam during the Manmohan Singh confidence motion.

The immediate reasons for Mr. Kulkarni’s jailing or more accurately Judicial Custody may have to do with missing court dates. There may be a legitimate debate on why and when bails can and should be denied and that debate cannot be about specific individuals and personalities, rightly so.

This blog post is not about why Mr. Kulkarni’s  plea for bail was denied but about the crime he was charged with in the first place.

Whatever be the circumstances of the Cash for Votes scandal that saw Prime Minister Manmohan Singh shamefully score a Pyrrhic victory, the reality is  this:

#1 Sudheendra Kulkarni did not steal any money

#2 Sudheendra Kulkarni did not benefit from anyone’s money

#3 Sudhendra Kulkarni did not physically hurt anyone

#4 Sudheenra Kulkarni did not coerce anyone

#5 Sudheendra Kulkarni did not cheat anyone

Sudheendra Kulkarni’s only crime as the chargesheet reportedly states was “knowledge of the events” and “contact with individuals” who were participants in the events.  By any yardstick of Justice, Sudheendra Kulkarni’s thought crime is at best worthy of a reprimand and at worst a misdemeanor that every Indian who applies for a Driving License or a Vehicle Registration is guilty of.

By charging  Sudheendra Kulkarni with such a trivial thought crime the  Delhi Police and the Court that is presiding over this case have made a mockery of the Justice process. By failing to nail the actual source of the bribe money that was paid they have exposed themselves to a greater crime of punishing the observers and letting off the conspirators.

The 2008 cash for votes scandal will go down in history as the only crime where the guilty were those who exposed  it.

Filed under: Manmohan Confidence Vote, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

February 11, 2011 • 10:41 pm 3

What did you know Mr. Prime Minister and when did you know it ?

Mr. Arun Shourie has made explosive revelations with specific details on approaching the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh with reference to the 2G spectrum scam involving former Telecom Minister from the DMK A. Raja among others.

Actually it was the Prime Minister’s question day (Aug-Sep 2009) and then he would take a particular route outside so I stood in the path that he usually takes from the lobby of the Rajya Sabha. I had the papers with me listing the front companies of Raja into which the money was going, the appointments that had been made, the brokers that are there and I said to him in Punjabi, “Dr Singh, loot is happening under the umbrella of your good name.” His demeanour was as if he was saying what has to be done. I said, “Nothing much. You just request Nair (Principal Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office TKA Nair) to contact me.”

Congress spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi’s denials on Mr. Shourie’s revealations sound hollow given the public record from October of 2009:

#1 – On October 23rd of 2009 the CBI conducted raids on the Department of Telecom in connection with the 2G scam

#2 - On October 27th of 2009 the Prime Minister issued a statement defending A. Raja  in response to allegations of his complicity in the 2G scam being probed by the CBI

Mr. Shourie’s memory is perhaps a bit rusted here for there had already been walkouts in the Parliament in July of 2009 on the 2G Spectrum issue.

The bigger scandal here however is that a GoM on Telecom to deal with the spectrum issue had been in the works in June of 2009. That GoM was to be headed by the Prime Minister or the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. The reasons for the GoM become quite obvious if the news reports during June 2009 (month immediately after the Lok Sabha elections) are sampled.

We must also not forget that the spectrum issue was one of the first to surface within two days of the infamous Confidence Vote won by Dr. Manmohan Singh in July of 2008.

#1 On July 5th 2008, just 2 weeks before the Confidence Vote the PM met A Raja on the spectrum issue.

#2 A week before the Confidence Vote the Prime Minister forwarded a letter from Amar Singh on the spectrum issue to Telecom Ministry. We all remember quite well the cloud of suspicion around Mr. Amar Singh on his alleged role in ensuring Lok Sabha MPs cross-voted to save the Manmohan Singh Government.

#3 Day after the Confidence Vote on 24th July 2008 the Telegraph carried this story on promised policy changes on the Spectrum Issue.

Clearly lobbying on the Spectrum issue held the key to both the survival of Manmohan Singh’s first government in July 2008 as well as the formation of his second government in June of 2009 given the significance it assumed on both occasions.

So what did you know Mr. Prime Minister and when did you know it ?

Filed under: Manmohan Confidence Vote, Offstumped, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

RSS Now Playing on Offstumped Live

  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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