Offstumped – Commentary on Indian Politics

The Congress could not dislodge the Shiv Sena from its stronghold of Mumbai and adjacent Thane. This despite the fact that the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance has lost a large number of the seats it won in the last election. According to The Hindu in Mumbai, the Shiv Sena-BJP’s tally declined from 133 to 111, in Thane from 63 to 53, in Pune from 53 to 45, in Nashik from 60 to 40, in Pimpri-Chinchwad from 25 to 13, in Akola from 32 to 18, in Solapur from 40 to 24 (no alliance) and in Amravati from 37 to 26. The alliance gained only in Ulhasnagar where it improved from 19 to 27 and in Nagpur, where it won 63 seats as compared to 54 in the last election.  The Congress-NCP failure has the Left worried. Both NCP and Congress leaders openly admit that the main reason for the so-called “saffron surge” was the division in the secular votes.

Offstumped examines the implications of the poll results in Mumbai and across Maharashtra. 

According to the Indian Express the Congress can take heart from the fact that “overall” it was still the largest party, winning a total of 275 seats throughout the state. The NCP came second with 221 seats, followed by Shiv Sena (213) and BJP (182). Independents account for as many as 84 seats, Raj Thackeray’s MNS bagged 28, RPI got 16 and BSP 17. The ‘Third Front” comprising SP, Left and other parties got a total of 49 seats.

However that overall tally can be cold comfort with most municipal corporations in play and all important Mumbai lost to the Shiv Sena BJP combine. While most media analyses have focused on the failure or Congress and NCP to come together some have also speculated on Bal Thackeray’s invoking of the delay in carrying out the Afzal Death Sentence as a factor. It is rather ironical that the delay in death sentence of one terrorist is a politically more potent issue compared to the 200 odddeaths on 7-11, well such is the stuff Indian politics is made up of.

While the BJP and Shiv Sena celebrate it would be premature to read too much into the saffron victory beyond confirmation of the theory Offstumped had advanced last year in the wake of Uttar Pradesh civic polls that in low turnout elections with a fragmented electorate, Right of Center Parties can do well by turning out the base. The larger and more important read from these poll results is for the Congress which may very well prepare itself for a doom and gloom 2007. The only poll results bearing good news for the Congress in 2007 may have come and gone in the Yogendra Yadav manufactured opinion poll about a fictitious Lok Sabha election. With incumbent governments in Punjab and Uttarakhand, a marginal role in Uttar Pradesh and practically no hope in Gujarat the rest of 2007 will see a defensive Congress looking to cut its losses. With inflation on the rise the Congress may as well brace itself for the blame for every bit of bad news on the economy.

The viability of the Manmohan Singh Sonia Gandhi lead UPA Government however seems to be on a reasonably strong wicket with that proverbial wedge issue with the Left continuing to remain elusive.

Offstumped Bottomline: The question plaguing Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury must be how long before the continued association with the UPA government will start to hurt. To some extent the hurt may have already begun with the wedge within the left on Singur and land acquisition in West Bengal. But that wedge is many miles away from widening the alliance in New Delhi. A string of BJP comebacks in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Gujarat with a reasonable performance in UP could be the excuse for an anxious Left to rethink continued support to the Congress by blaming the saffron resurgence on Congress deviations from the CMP.

Filed under: Local Governance, Mumbai BMC Polls 2007 Archive, Uncategorized

Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray will make a last ditch effort Sunday to woo Mumbai’s voters for a yet another chance for Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine to be voted back to power in the country’s largest or rather richest municipal corporation the Brihan Mumbai  Municipal Corporation or BMC. The much-awaited joint public meeting of Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray will also feature Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. While the run up to the election has had the usual seat sharing drama with Sharad Pawar’s NCP going it alone against the Congress. With high profile Sena defections to the Congress and NCP the Sena is on the backfoot but all speculation is on who many are calling the man to watch out for in Maharashtra in the next couple of years Raj Thackeray, the estranged nephew of Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray who’s Maharashtra Nava Nirman Sena is all set to play spoil sport.

The politics of the BMC elections have typically been marred by parochial rhetoric that has sought to protect the interests of the Maharashtrian in the face of alleged influx of outsiders from North and South India. This election season has been no exception with the Hema Malini episode starting with alleged remarks asking North Indians to leave Mumbai if they were unhappy and ending with the usual “media misinterpreted my remarks” apology.

Offstumped has however been most distressed that the single most defining issue of security for the Mumbaikar in the aftermath of the 7-11 commuter train serial bomb blasts has been a mere blip in the run up to the BMC elections.

While law enforcement and internal security continues to be under the purview of the State Government one would have expected in the aftermath of 7-11 a concerted campaign to lobby for Mumbai Police to be accountable directly to the people of Mumbai rather than the bureaucracy of the state of Maharashtra. But there has hardly been a murmur in this direction from the mainstream political parties. Given its size, financial muscle and significance as the nation’s financial capital paralleling New York City and London, one would have hoped for Mumbai to set an example for the rest of the nation to emulate by making Law Enforcement directly accountable to the local community but it looks like 2007 BMC polls may very well be an opportunity lost. Especially in light of the recent serial killings in Nithari one would have expected a serious debate on the kind of law enforcement and criminal justice our cities should have and on why they should not be brought within the ambit of the Municipal Corporation and made accountable directly to the local community.

A welcome exception to the mostly cliched political themes dominating the Mumbai elections is the Vote Mumbai effort http://www.votemumbai.org/ which is an offshoot of Jayaprakash Narayan’s Lok Satta. Elaborating on the non-existence of local governance in the Mumbai – for the people, by the people, Vote Mumbai points out that there is one elected representative for every 66000 Mumbaikars. The statistics quoted by Vote Mumbai are even more damning – Mumbai accounts for 16% of income tax collections and 35% of corporate tax collection in the country, 25% of the State’s income at current prices etc, its annual budget is 6183 crores (almost as much as some small states). Vote Mumbai further points out how and why the governance of the City of Mumbai is not accountable to the people of Mumbai. The BMC Commissioner is a State Government appointed bureaurcrat while the Mayor who is elected by the people of Mumbai holds a largely ceremonial position. The elected Corporation has only deliberative powers for policy making but no say in execution or planning. Thus the elected representatives of the people of Mumbai are powerless and at the mercy of the State Government controlled bureaucracy.

This folks is at the root of all ills of our great cities.  So while the BJP’s Narendra Modi is all set to lionise the crowds in Mumbai he would do very well to ponder on this issue in much the same way cities in Gujarat like Surat have transformed themselves with greater autonomy to the local government.

Offstumped Bottomline: The governance of Mumbai must be truly for Mumbaikars by Mumbaikars. This is only possible if the city is freed from the clutches of the State Government controlled bureaucracy. True security to Mumbai will be delivered when law enforcement and local governance is directly accountable to the people of Mumbai. Offstumped fully endorses the recommendations of the Vote Mumbai initiative. Mumbai does not need another 7-11 wake up call to get is act together.

When BMC goes to polls, Mumbaikars must not forget 7-11 and must not forgive those who stand for status quo.

Filed under: Local Governance, Mumbai BMC Polls 2007 Archive, Uncategorized