Offstumped – Commentary on Indian Politics

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Politics and Public Policy in India

BJP and its affairs

Well before the Uttar Pradesh elections were beginning to look like a complete washout for the BJP one witnessed a curious phenomenon play out in the media – a series of unattributed reports that sought to prempt the outcome to suggest that a negative outcome would be of no consequence to a possible second term for the current incumbent.

How the BJP chooses to conduct its internal affairs is a matter between it and its members. To those of us on the outside and sympathetic to its cause, the opaqueness of this conduct is of mild curiosity most of the time but of late it has turned into a matter of acute concern.

It would be redundant to recount all of the episodes and reasons, it would also be speculative given the backroom intrigue surrounding most of them.

But it is in order to point out where the concern mainly arises from:

#1 – The manner in which the BJP has emulated the Congress in turning “failure” into a resume enhancer. This is not the first time it was sought to be argued that choice of Organizational Leadership was divorced from success or failure in elections.

#2 – The manner in which the BJP has further emulated the Congress in scapegoating regional leaders

#3 – The manner in which the BJP and some in the Sangh look to the Communists as a role model for touting the flawed idea of collective leadership as an excuse to either undermine mass leadership or to pass the buck on accountability.

All of the above have in varying degrees contributed to the drift in BJP since the loss in 2004.

Nitin Gadkari’s elevation as BJP President brought the promise of a refreshing change. To some degree that did happen. For the first time you had a BJP leader on television in Delhi who didnt sound angry or outraged all the time. It is hard not to like Gadkari given his disarming humor and relaxed demeanor.  He also brought a sense of energy to campaigns.

But a dispassionate appraisal of the Gadkari term would reveal 3 marked failings:

#1 - Failure to chart a clear path to power in Delhi - BJP has failed to recover ground it previously held in with the exception of Goa. It has not broken any new ground with the exception of the odd bypoll win in Telangana.

#2 – Failure to make bold moves - BJP continues to take muddled positions on most issues with a reactive stance. In states where it has attempted a recovery it has failed to project new credible leadership while it its attempt to recycle old faces has fallen flat.

#3 – Failure to a create a positive “for wave” - Far too much energy and time has been spent on scams, expressing anger and outrage rather than on creating a positive wave “for the BJP”.

The BJP in Delhi has come to be a party of “scam chasers” much like Accident Lawyers in the West who are “Ambulance Chasers”. The “anger” constituency has far too many claimants. And “anger against Congress” is an opportunity with diminishing returns. There is a fatigue factor from frequent superlative claims of scams where the only visible impact is disruption in Parliament and a circuitous Legal Process that barely lends itself to political one-upmanship.

A second term for Mr.Gadkari may have its merits (see discussion below on weak party system) but the opaqueness of the process of decision making and the backroom intrigue surrounding it leaves us no more enlightened on how he or the BJP proposes to address the above three marked failings.

Making this opaqueness worse are the juvenile political games being played in the media. How the BJP proposes to manage its affairs is its business, but this backroom intrigue is clearly not helping it keep our sympathies or earn new sympathies.

One doesn’t have to look too far to extrapolate on what happens to a Party that is unable to reconcile mass politics with dogmatic loyalties to a clique. Those who look to the Communists as a role model on how to run the organization must realize a fate not much unlike the Communists will likely befall them.

A far more relevant role model for the BJP is the “weak party” system that is predominant in western democracies where concentration of power is  federated across regional leaders within a political party and where the national organ of the political party plays largely a secondary role of campaign coordination and funding.

In such a “weak party system” it doesnt really matter who the National President for the Party Organization. A key aspect of that model though is  the Institutionalized Mechanism by which all the regional power centers and the national organ coalesce around a Mass Leader ahead of an election once chosen.  While the process of federating power has been underway in the BJP for sometime it is clear that its core DNA is still at odds with the imperatives of mass politics.

The sooner the BJP reconciles this contradiction and comes to terms with the imperatives of Mass Politics within a “Weak Party” system the better prepared it will be for 2014 or whenever the next General Election may be.

Filed under: Gujarat Polls 2012, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari

Making the Third Front redundant perhaps even irrelevant – Rediff Column and a Podcast

Originally published on Rediff.com. Also listen to related podcast conversation with @dubash of phalaka.com on the same topic.

The electoral outcome from last week’s five assembly elections have, interestingly, triggered more speculation on the revival of a third front than on the likelihood of a mid-term poll. A mid-term poll maybe a slim possibility at this point in time but that slim possibility, however, has not tamped down speculation on a possible third front or, as some would rather call it, a “federal front”. Much number-crunching has been doing the rounds on the clout a third front could carry with another grand coming together of regional parties from Bengal to Punjab [ Images ] circling the two coasts.

One can point to at least three reasons for the heightened third front speculation in recent days. First is that Mulayam Singh has freed himself up for a potential job in Delhi [ Images ]. Second, are the dire straits in which both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party [ Images ] find themselves in the largest state in the country, which feeds into the dominant narrative on the growing clout of regional parties. Last is the Delhi punditry’s soft corner for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, hence any speculation on a 3rd front finds a natural resonance in a Delhi that nurtures fond hopes of his prime ministerial candidacy.

None of the above reasons, however, indicate a structural shift that would make a third front government any more viable than it was in the late 1980s-1990 during the VP  Singh, Chandra Shekhar era or in the mid-1990s during the Deve Gowda [ Images ], IK Gujral era.  In fact, one would wonder why any successful regional satrap who today enjoys absolute power in the state capitals would want to suffer the ignominy that befell Deve Gowda. 

Who in their right mind would want to become the Deve Gowda of the 2010s?

The political reality of every regional party that is in power today is that they are all one-man, one-woman shows with neither an institutionalized mechanism for succession nor a culture of tolerance for alternate power centres within the party. With the exception of a Mulayam Singh in Uttar Pradesh [ Images ] and a Prakash Singh Badal in Punjab, both of who are relatively in a better place to bequeath their legacy in the states for a stint at the Centre, the rest of the regional satraps can barely afford to jeopardise their iron grip on affairs in their respective states.

It is conceivable that a Mulayam Singh or a Sharad Pawar [ Images ] may fall for the same temptation that Chandra Shekhar did for a stint in 7 Race Course Road, howsoever short that stint might turn out to be, given the steroid boost to their legacy from such a stint in their twilight years.

But a Mulayam or Pawar’s morbid desire for a posthumous legacy can hardly be the reason for either the BJP or the Congress and even Delhi’s punditry to cheerlead a Third Front government into power.

In fact, the Congress, which has the distinction of having propped up every third front government to date with the exception of VP Singh’s National Front government, ought to be highly circumspect of playing kingmaker in Delhi given its dubious track record. The Congress’s natural instincts are at odds with playing kingmaker. Any third front experiment that expects to be propped up by the Congress can be considered to be inherently unstable pending a clinical death.

It is also hard to foresee a scenario where the BJP would willingly prop up a third front government given how regional parties have expanded at its expense over the years.

In fact, the only likely scenario for a third front is a repeat of 1996 when the Congress, the Left and other regional parties went out of their way to thwart Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s [ Images ] ascendancy to power. It is conceivable that such a scenario could very well play out with a Narendra Modi-led BJP being isolated by most parties barring all-weather allies like the Shiv Sena [ Images ] and the Akali Dal.

Such a scenario may actually be in the BJP’s interest just as it played out in 1996 in the case of Vajpayee who made a come-back twice riding on a groundswell of public support against the politics of untouchability. There aremany barriers against such a scenario playing out, not the least from within the BJP.

There is, however, a less talked about parallel and it has to do with the original third or rather second front government from the late 1970s. The Janata Party experiment saw multiple regional and supra-regional parties merge their identity in favour of a common national symbol. The Janata experiment first came apart on the issue of dual membership before ultimately falling prey to personality differences.

In this season of federalism it may not be far-fetched to attempt to forge a new federal compact ascribing a new meaning to the idea of dual membership. It is not inconceivable that elections in India can be fought by a party maintaining a distinct regional identity in state elections while merging to fight on a common symbol in the national elections.

Such a truly federal front would be the ideal second front to challenge the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance [Images ]. Such a federal front would make the need for a third or fourth front redundant, perhaps even irrelevant. 

Filed under: federalism, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, nitish kumar, Offstumped Podcasts

Yeddyurappa’s Legacy

It is indisputable that without B.S. Yedyyurappa’s contribution the  BJP would be a mere blip in the political map south of the Vindhyas. He has come a long way since the failed experiment at a coalition with H.D. Kumaraswamy to chart an independent course for the BJP in Karnataka.

Much criticized for a culture of continuous politicking it must be pointed out that rather than engineer defections and splits to build a working majority for the BJP, he took the honorable route of getting new entrants to the BJP to first resign from their previous parties before seeking a fresh mandate.

The Mining brouhaha makes for good narrative in the media thanks to the anti-corruption mood but the fact remains that Yeddy broke no law, the Bellary Reddy brothers are yet to be convicted and Mining in general remains stuck with a 19th century regulatory regime.

Not having a permanent Delhi based spin meister at his disposal naturally makes Yeddy that much harder in a media environment that is naturally hostile to him and the brand of politics he has come to represent.

The ignominy of an arrest and jail time on an issue where the distinction between the unethical and the illegal has blurred  doesn’t make it anymore easier for him to make a case for claiming what was rightfully his mandate.

But the question must be asked of Mr. Yeddyurappa, how much legitimacy remains with that mandate thanks to this endless politicking and air of uncertainity ?

A discredited JD-S, a clueless Congress and a high Awareness Quotient of Hindu Identity may be the BJP’s only possible insurance against immense public anger at cynical politics at its worst in Karnataka. The events in Karnataka mirror the BJP’s factional feuds in Gujarat before the advent of Narendra Modi. Alas there is not one in sight to do a similar clean job.

Mr. Yeddyurappa’s lack of temperament for governance has been apparent for long now with his frequent emotional mood-swings. In the interest of his legacy and the posterity of the mandate he once legitimately earned he should set aside his ego and earnestly look for a successor who will rid the BJP in Karnataka of special interests in a manner similar to Modi in Gujarat.

Filed under: Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

RSS Now Playing on Offstumped Live

  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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