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Making the Third Front redundant perhaps even irrelevant – Rediff Column and a Podcast

Originally published on Rediff.com. Also listen to related podcast conversation with @dubash of phalaka.com on the same topic.

The electoral outcome from last week’s five assembly elections have, interestingly, triggered more speculation on the revival of a third front than on the likelihood of a mid-term poll. A mid-term poll maybe a slim possibility at this point in time but that slim possibility, however, has not tamped down speculation on a possible third front or, as some would rather call it, a “federal front”. Much number-crunching has been doing the rounds on the clout a third front could carry with another grand coming together of regional parties from Bengal to Punjab [ Images ] circling the two coasts.

One can point to at least three reasons for the heightened third front speculation in recent days. First is that Mulayam Singh has freed himself up for a potential job in Delhi [ Images ]. Second, are the dire straits in which both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party [ Images ] find themselves in the largest state in the country, which feeds into the dominant narrative on the growing clout of regional parties. Last is the Delhi punditry’s soft corner for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, hence any speculation on a 3rd front finds a natural resonance in a Delhi that nurtures fond hopes of his prime ministerial candidacy.

None of the above reasons, however, indicate a structural shift that would make a third front government any more viable than it was in the late 1980s-1990 during the VP  Singh, Chandra Shekhar era or in the mid-1990s during the Deve Gowda [ Images ], IK Gujral era.  In fact, one would wonder why any successful regional satrap who today enjoys absolute power in the state capitals would want to suffer the ignominy that befell Deve Gowda. 

Who in their right mind would want to become the Deve Gowda of the 2010s?

The political reality of every regional party that is in power today is that they are all one-man, one-woman shows with neither an institutionalized mechanism for succession nor a culture of tolerance for alternate power centres within the party. With the exception of a Mulayam Singh in Uttar Pradesh [ Images ] and a Prakash Singh Badal in Punjab, both of who are relatively in a better place to bequeath their legacy in the states for a stint at the Centre, the rest of the regional satraps can barely afford to jeopardise their iron grip on affairs in their respective states.

It is conceivable that a Mulayam Singh or a Sharad Pawar [ Images ] may fall for the same temptation that Chandra Shekhar did for a stint in 7 Race Course Road, howsoever short that stint might turn out to be, given the steroid boost to their legacy from such a stint in their twilight years.

But a Mulayam or Pawar’s morbid desire for a posthumous legacy can hardly be the reason for either the BJP or the Congress and even Delhi’s punditry to cheerlead a Third Front government into power.

In fact, the Congress, which has the distinction of having propped up every third front government to date with the exception of VP Singh’s National Front government, ought to be highly circumspect of playing kingmaker in Delhi given its dubious track record. The Congress’s natural instincts are at odds with playing kingmaker. Any third front experiment that expects to be propped up by the Congress can be considered to be inherently unstable pending a clinical death.

It is also hard to foresee a scenario where the BJP would willingly prop up a third front government given how regional parties have expanded at its expense over the years.

In fact, the only likely scenario for a third front is a repeat of 1996 when the Congress, the Left and other regional parties went out of their way to thwart Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s [ Images ] ascendancy to power. It is conceivable that such a scenario could very well play out with a Narendra Modi-led BJP being isolated by most parties barring all-weather allies like the Shiv Sena [ Images ] and the Akali Dal.

Such a scenario may actually be in the BJP’s interest just as it played out in 1996 in the case of Vajpayee who made a come-back twice riding on a groundswell of public support against the politics of untouchability. There aremany barriers against such a scenario playing out, not the least from within the BJP.

There is, however, a less talked about parallel and it has to do with the original third or rather second front government from the late 1970s. The Janata Party experiment saw multiple regional and supra-regional parties merge their identity in favour of a common national symbol. The Janata experiment first came apart on the issue of dual membership before ultimately falling prey to personality differences.

In this season of federalism it may not be far-fetched to attempt to forge a new federal compact ascribing a new meaning to the idea of dual membership. It is not inconceivable that elections in India can be fought by a party maintaining a distinct regional identity in state elections while merging to fight on a common symbol in the national elections.

Such a truly federal front would be the ideal second front to challenge the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance [Images ]. Such a federal front would make the need for a third or fourth front redundant, perhaps even irrelevant. 

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Filed under: federalism, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, nitish kumar, Offstumped Podcasts

“Trust” must become the overarching political narrative

Originally published in The Pioneer. As we bid good bye to 2011 and embrace 2012 a look ahead to why restoration of “Trust” within our public discourse will have to be the dominant political theme, the defining trait in the quest to discover the next Vajpayee

The most bizarre of controversies to plague India in recent times is playing out down south between the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. No it is not over the new rage on YouTube – “Why this Kolaveri di”. But you could as well say that of the mood down south over the Mullaperiyar Dam and of the political atmosphere across the country in general.

While facts have been a casualty in the political debate over the Mullaperiyar Dam, much anxiety and paranoia has been fuelled by rumors and speculation. The lack of trust between the people of the two states is so wide today that it has affected vehicular trade across their state borders while also leading to stray incidents of political violence. Many open letters and public statements by leaders on both sides and from Delhi notwithstanding, the trust deficit remains undiminished with perhaps fatigue over the issue being the only near term hope for it to fade away into the background.

The Mullaperiyar episode in many ways is symptomatic of the larger malaise that has afflicted both politics and much of governance in India over the past few years. The abject lack of Trust in the public space is the single most challenge to Political Parties both in Government and outside it if they nurture any hope of advancing their agenda.

It is this same lack of Trust that manifests itself routinely today in the name of “Civil Society” activism that has lead to a second guessing of the agencies of the State be it in the area of investigative law enforcement or in the process of Justice Delivery. Every incident is an encounter, every encounter is suspect, every agency is compromised and just about every aggrieved soul needs an “Independent” investigation.

The lack of trust is so pervasive within our public discourse that we have a glut of conspiracy theorists on just about any issue. The recent FDI in Retail debate was illuminating for the number of conspiracy theories it spawned from allegations of massive lobbying by Walmart to the Congres’ dire need for funds for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. The decision was simultaneously a conspiracy of foreign forces against Indian middlemen, a conspiracy of Indian farmers against the Indian consumer and lastly a conspiracy of Indian Retailers against Indian Retailers. It is no surprise that in this environment of trust deficiency, common sense has become the casualty. In its extreme avatar the death of common sense has manifested itself in Swadeshi theories that celebrate the sanctity of informal barter while exorcising the evil of Legal Contracts.

The long list of stalled legislation, rolled-back or suspended Executive Decisions and Projects stuck in a limbo is often blamed on a lack of consensus when in fact the real reason is the atmosphere distrust within which such consensus building is apparently attempted. Every contentious issue today has become a matter of perceived Rights and imagined Wrongs. The deep sense of entitlement with which every impacted group of a given decision have been encouraged to politick has created a culture where nothing on offer is ever enough, there is always something more to be asked and last but not the least someone is always out to get you.

It must be asked of the Sonia Gandhi lead Congress and its assorted eco-system of Left Lib NGO Activists on the degree to which their “Rights based Entitlements” agenda has actually contributed to this deep Trust deficit as they fostered a sense of victimhood in almost every electorally significant demographic segment. The deeply flawed Forest Rights Acts and its highly contentious process by which community claims are made on land has had the net effect of sowing deep distrust over major Industrial projects like POSCO and Vedanta in Orissa. The inflationary MGNREGS scheme now has the dubious distinction of sowing deep distrust between Local governments and state governments on the one hand and state governments and the central government on the other paving the way for anti-federal interventions by agencies of the State and Civil Society busybodies. The RTI activism cottage industry has not resulted in any significant change in the processes of Government but has instead ensured an air of permanent distrust prevails where all decisions are suspect and there is always a scam lurking in the background.

For every report there is a counter-report, for every claim there is a counter claim while leaks have become the routine norm. There is no longer a single version of the Truth. Nothing exemplifies this better than the manner in which the credibility of the CAG as an Institution has been diluted with the competing claims on the size of loss to the exchequer in the 2G scam. Truth has become the casualty in this climate of competitive politics and it has come to affect the judicial process. The many false claims that have come to light in the Amit Shah episode in the Supreme Court are a sad commentary on how aspersions have been cast on the Judiciary of a state to settle political scores.

Pratap Bhanu Mehta in comments to the Indian Express recently lamented, how the Law and Order process had been vitiated in almost every episode with a communal angle. The lack of trust between extreme activists on either end of the Communal spectrum is not new. But the manner in which the Delhi based media and Left leaning intellectuals have politicized the investigation process in so many cases has now lead us to a situation where no verdict at any level will be taken as the last word. This malaise has now extended to the judicial process straddling other parochial fault-lines as well from Kashmir to Punjab as we recently witnessed the ridiculous political grandstanding over commuting of death sentences awarded to convicted terrorists.

Trust is dangerously close to becoming extinct from our public space. We may regale ourselves over clever by half political games being played by our favored side little realizing that we are now collectively in a quicksand. It no longer matters who steps on whom, we are all set to sink.

Consensus needed for radical change cannot be negotiated in this environment of distrust.  The tune “Why this Kolaveri di” may have united a nation by capturing the sentiment of the moment. We are yet to see leadership emerge that can overcome this murderous rage of distrust.

Come 2014, far more than the arithmetic of feel-good acceptability in coalition politics, the dire need will be for Leadership that can inspire Trust across the many political fault-lines that have fragmented this nation.

Filed under: Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, betrayal of aam admi, Left Liberalism, Local Governance, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

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