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Politics and Public Policy in India

May 14, 2011 • 12:44 am 15

Saffron Perestroika

The time for a Saffron Perestroika is now.

It is now crystal clear that the BJP’s permanent Delhi based leadership is essentially presiding over a super regional party. This permanent Delhi based leadership is incapable of ensuring the party breaks new ground. What is worse, in the few states where the BJP did hold ground in the 1990s despite not being either the primary or the secondary political player – the BJP has seen its base shrink over the last two or three election cycles. Today the BJP is a bit player in these states as well on the verge of grand political irrelevance. In the grand prize called Uttar Pradesh a similar scenario is all set to be played as well.

The current strategy of linear vote growth has shown its limitations. Those who fantasize of a grand anti-congress umbrella platform need a serious dose of  reality on why exactly would the BJP be the rallying point for such an umbrella platform. The wins by Mamata in Bengal and Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu (previously by Maya in UP and Naveen in Orissa) have shown that the BJP is not even a factor in their local political calculus unlike in the case of an Akali Dal in Punjab or a JD-U in Bihar.

There is no linear path to 2014 and the BJP in its current avatar has outlived its usefulness as a national entity.

It is time to put together a blueprint for a new version 3.0.

For that to happen, a mandatory pre-requisite however is the retirement of the BJP’s patriarch and the setting in motion of a process by which change is effected in the leadership through an open and transparent internal election that sees a real contest of ideas rather than the coronation of an individual. There is no doubt that the BJP needs purposeful, transformational leadership that suffers no fools and brooks no nonsense with a single minded focus on clearing out the deadwood and infusing fresh blood. There is also no doubt that there is only one leader who fits the bill.

Despite that a contest of ideas is imperative over a coronation, for the blueprint for version 3.0 has to be based on localization. Local ideas, local metaphors and local issues must bubble up to result in a federal platform. For that happen there has to be a nationwide contest of ideas where the primary contenders assuming there are more than one, make their case in every nook and corner of the country. When the contest is settled it would not have been a decision thrust by a permanent leadership sitting in Delhi brokering a backroom deal, but it would be the result of the sum total of all local interests and aspirations.

Ultimately this localization would come to mean state units making their own decisions on winnability through a direct process of  feedback from the ground rather than the current process of  decision making by High Commands in Delhi who are mostly divorced from local realities.

A blue-print for version 3.0 emerging from this process could be a national coalition of local interests bound together by a shared belief in and commitment to Constitutionalism and Federalism. As a consequence this national coalition will sharply differentiate itself from the UPA by arguing in favor of

#1 freedom and autonomy to states and local government in socio-economic decision making

#2 the federalization and localization of welfare spending

#3 systemic reforms in law enforcement and justice delivery while minimizing the discretionary powers of the Central Government and the Supreme Court  to intervene in violation of Federalism and the Constitutional separation of powers

#4 a time bound framework for Reconciliation of all of last century’s contentious issues and last decade’s wounds

#5 a Vision to advance India’s strategic interests with clear linkages to economic interests of states

While #1 and #2 will help mark a clear space that is opposed to the UPA’s current drift of centralization and statism they will also help solidify the basic premise of version 3.0 which is Localization. The political incentives for #3 will come from the fact that many regions have been subjected to arbitrary central interventions motivated by politics. It is imperative that version 3.0 also transcend the fault-lines that defined version 2.0 and to shed the baggage from version 2.0, thus #4 becomes critical. While #5 is the pathway to ensuring there is regional buy-in and ownership for a strong advocacy of Strategic Interests without holding such advocacy hostage to regional issues and identity polemics.

The blueprint for version 3.0 that emerges from these 5 elements would be

a vision of a Strong Republic that provides for economic freedom and autonomy to states and local government  guaranteed by strong Constitutional Institutions for Law Enforcement and Justice Delivery

a.k.a.

Minimum Government Maximum Governance

Continuing Twitter commentary:

Filed under: Ambedkarite Constitutionalism, Assembly elections 2011, betrayal of aam admi, economic freedom, Flat World Hindutva, Internet Hindus, Local Governance, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Shveta Chhatra, socio-economic engineering

April 8, 2011 • 9:06 pm 4

Day 4 Anna Hazare will end fast – What next on Middle Class Mobilization

4 days on fast Anna Hazare after initially refusing to relent announced that he would end his fast on saturday at 10am. This follows the Manmohan Singh lead UPA Government coming around to his demand of a joint committee of Government and Non-Governmental activists and a co-chair to go with in drafting the next version of the Lokpal Bill.

Much has already been said on the perils of an Ombudsman independent of the Constitutional separation of powers between Executive, Legislature and Judiciary. In response to the criticism asking what are the alternatives, yesterday’s blog post dwelt at length on an alternate set of systemic reforms starting with the nature of relationship between the Executive and the Legislature.

Neither

this impatient and irrational desire for a Super Cop

Nor

the complicated proposals on Constitutional Reforms

have much chance of making a significant impact unless there is a sustainable movement in support of hard, politically unpopular systemic reforms.

That sustainable movement can only be created if there is a Constituency that has the greatest stake in such reforms and hence is able to mobilize in favor of them beyond transient impulses of anger and frustration.

Middle classe Intellectual Hero and Role Model, Arun Shourie had longed called for such a lobby comprising of the Middle Class and Entrepreneurs:

the extremely high price the country paid for starting the reforms late. And even these late reforms have taken place only in economic policy and not in administration and governance. Reforms in these fields are stonewalled because politicians don’t want to commit harakiri. One major problem before the country is the plethora of small parties who have their own narrow agendas and no national vision. Combined with the corrupt section of the business class, they derail even essential reforms.

Shourie suggests that to bring about these mandatory changes, what is needed is a lobby for excellence. Since most labour unions are affiliated to political parties, even they cannot form this backbone. Only entrepreneurs and the middle class can fit the bill.

Shourie’s twin observations are very pertinent to the current tumult within the Urban middle class through the anger, awareness and mobilization that has resulted from Anna Hazare’s fast:

#1 on the need for a culture of excellence in the public Institutions

#2 that only the Middle Class and Enterpreneurs have any incentive to foster such a culture

It is clear that the politicians and the upper crust Urban elite have no incentive to invest in Institutions for they can easily get by virtue of privilege, access and crony capitalism. It is also clear that the this troika of Urban elite, Crony Capitalists and Politicians also have many an incentive in buying off the poor with Entitlements to preserve their positions of privilege and access.

The Middle Class and the average Entrepreneur neither enjoy privilege, access nor have direct leverage on the politician. It is this Middle Class that has a deep and vested self interest in ensuring that drains are fixed and streets are policed, Justice delivery works all the time and every single time. It is this class alone that desperately needs the Institutions of our Democracy continuously strive for excellence..

For only when this happens will the System deliver for the individual and every individual every single time without the need for recourse to Media Celebrities and Political Patronage.

Middle Class can become a significant voting bloc

Duetsche Bank Research released a report on February 15th 2010 titled The Middle Class in India – Issues and Opportunities

Some highlights extracted from this report that are of relevance to this discussion on Socio-Economic Engineering and targeting Middle India.

#1 -While there is no official definition of the middle class, estimates range from 30 million to approximately 300 million people.

#2 Even using the most generous estimates of the group‟s size, the middle class comprises less than 30 percent of the population

#3 The importance of the middle class lies in the fact that it is the fastest growing segment of the population

#4 while the total population will increase almost 30% between 2005 and 2025, the middle class population will increase approximately 10 times or almost 1000% during this period

#5 the middle class might see less of a link between their priorities (the CLSA survey found the number one political priority for the middle class over the next 12 months was employment) and a new government vs. the poor (who are typically more concerned with things such as basic healthcare infrastructure or farm loan waivers that are more directly linked to the government).

#6 A stronger political drive in the middle class would force or enable the government to also focus on issues that are of concern to them.

The report also puts into perspective why the flawed Liberal Left agenda of the Congress is meeting with electoral success

#1 The Gini coefficient (a measure of inequality where 100 = high levels of inequality and 0 equals no inequality in an economy) is rather low for India overall compared to other EMs at less than 35 but has been increasing since economic liberalisation

#2 although the poverty rate has been reduced, the rich continue to get richer in comparison

#3 As the middle class remains apathetic towards political participation as is currently thought, then the trend of focusing on poorer (often rural) voters to win elections could remain the dominant political paradigm in India.

How exactly can one go about ensuring that the Middle Class and the Entrepreneurs can become such a Lobby or a Constituency that stands up for Institutional reforms all seasons.  Political Triangulation is one approach that can be considered. But more importantly the Middle Class and Entrepreneurs must organize themselves as a significant voting bloc.

Socio-Economic Engineering

Socio-Economic Engineering can be the basis for such an organization of the Middle Class around Electoral Politics by challenging the conventional political wisdom on the calculus of vote bank and caste.

to be defined as the act of influencing Individuals to break away from the group (religious Minority voting block, caste) in making electoral choices.

Back in December of 2008, Offstumped had dissected the electoral landscape in Uttar Pradesh from a socio-economic standpoint with the 2002 Census Household Income data as the basis. The key takeaway from this analysis was the strong correlation between dominant income level within a district and the dominant political players in that district. (More details on the analysis below).

This correlation between household income and electoral preferences gives a basis for the target demographic of Socio-Economic engineering. A starting point for the Center Right in electoral politics would be to identify that Voter with cross-over economic aspirations who can potentially break away from his or her group. Socio-Economic engineering by the Center Right would then come to mean targeting the Individual with cross-over economic aspirations by

#1 creating  incentives to break away from the group

#2 emphasizing discincentives in voting with the group.

Ladder of Opportunity versus Safety of the Net

How can Socio-economic engineering be a practical electoral issue.

The core premise behind Socio-Economic Engineering must be

to motivate the voter that there is no reason to settle for the least common denominator within the group for even the highest of aspirations will be within reach by climbing on to the Ladder of Opportunity

There maybe merit in framing the popular debate between the Liberal Left policies of the Congress and the policy of prescriptions of the Center Right  as a choice between the Ladder and the Net.

The Net may offer safety but then there is no getting out of the Net once trapped.

There is nothing progressive about the Net for there is no avenue to progress.

The Net only weighs you down as it gets burdened with more and more to support

The metaphorical Ladder on the other hand is

by design progressive with opportunities to rise in each and every step.

by design inclusive and non-discriminatory for with every step an individual takes to rise, an opportunity is created for the next to rise and occupy

Pragmatism and realism would suggest that the Ladder of Opportunity cannot stand alone without the Safety of the Net, leading one to ask where lies the distinction between Socio-economic Engineering and Social Engineering ?

That distinction will have to be made by emphasizing the primacy of the Ladder over the Net

for if there was no ladder there would be no need to cast a wide net for safety

Where is the Opportunity

As the Duetsche Bank Report says

#1 The growth of the middle class and the economic growth of India are in a virtuous cycle.

#2 As the middle class grows and continues to increase domestic demand, the economy will also continue to grow

#4 The growth of the middle class will force more businesses to expand and also force new business to take root

The opportunity for the Center Right agenda lies in what the Deutsche Bank Report calls

the key point in ensuring that the link between middle class growth and economic growth continues to strengthen

And that is in

providing the right education and skills to the middle class and creating enough opportunities in society to absorb these

Conclusion

Socio Economic Engineering could be the vehicle for the Center Right movement to target Middle India with a “bold and imaginative” agenda.

A beginning must be made by

Step#1 – Giving a new broad definition to this fast growing demographic segment called the “Middle Class”

Step#2 – Micro-targeting based on issues that directly relate to economic priorities of the various sub-segments that make up this broad Middle Class

Step#3 – Structuring an electoral agenda around the “Ladder of Opportunites plus Safety Net” paradigm to address those priorities

Filed under: Ambedkarite Constitutionalism, Anna Hazare, socio-economic engineering, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

March 22, 2011 • 11:56 pm 3

State of the Center Right in India

Its not every day that you get all leading intellectual voices to the Right of the Political  Center in India on a single platform. It is to CRI’s (http://centreright.in) credit that they got Swapan Dasgupta, Kanchan Gupta and Ashok Malik once again on an Internet Platform this time in one to one conversations.

One can see the newsman in Kanchan Gupta come to the fore in the conversations in contrast to Swapan and Ashok who primarily see themselves as commentators. Kanchan’s comments on the state of media, evolving reader attitudes and preferences and the independence of news media are a subject for discussion in of themselves. Kanchan also explodes the myth of a national media by reminding us of the strong appeal and hold regional media have within the hinterland far beyond the dust and din of the urban cosmopolitan cities.

The conversations themselves can be found here.

This blog post tries to paint a picture of the State of the Center Right in India that emerges from these conversations.

First on what was not heard or said in any of the 3 podcasts.

All 3 podcasts were posed the question on the lack of Center Right tradition or Center Right intellectual tradition. While all of the 3 leading commentators opined on various facets of this question, one phrase was notably absent – “Integral Humanism”. It is a telling comment on the so called ideology of the BJP on paper that none of three leading BJP friendly intellectual commentators in the media did not see it worthy enough of even a passing mention.

“Integral Humanism” as an idea or ideology is dead.

Is the BJP alive  to this fact, does it have the intellectual spine to acknowledge this fact  ?

Next on that which was said but marginally so

The next big idea for the political right will not be found in Identity polemics. The general consensus view that emerges from listening to all 3 podcasts is on how much of an anachronism identity polemics have become.

More than the BJP, the question needs to be asked of BJP’s foot soldiers on the Internet and elsewhere if they are alive to Identity having exhausted its political usefulness ?

Dwelling further on whether Identity 2.0 as being experiment by Baba Ramdev can have a political impact,  Swapan sees orthodox hindu institutions no longer having mass appeal getting replaced by new age tele-evangelist Hindu institutions. He sees a significant role being played by these new age institutions in preserving the cultural core of  india by being very open and creative in their use of  technology and adaptation to it. He however feels it is premature to expect new age Hindu tele-evangelism having a significant political impact.

Divergence on what it is the Right is lacking – Tradition or Intellectual Tradition

While both Swapan and Kanchan feel there is a lack of intellectual tradition within the Indian Political Right, Ashok struck divergent note asking a more fundamental question on if there was even such a thing as a tradition to the Right.

Swapan’s thoughts

there is need for constant intellectual churning

drawing inspiration from Hindu tradition there should be no overarching dogma

constant evolution around a vision of greatest degree of empowerment to individuals and communities while the state retreats and malevolent paternalism diminishes

Ashok’s thoughts

a unifocal approach rooted in Identity has vacated vast spaces in policy and public discourse to non center right positions. First step is to build a tradition before we get to an intellectual tradition.

Important to make right wing tradition normal

left wing tradition has been top down with the vanguard or the elite being important to left.

By duplicating top down approach the Right apes the left and loses credibility

Evolution of a right wing tradition has to be bottom up and organic through  forces outside politics

must come from society. We have a highly individualistic tradition when it comes to certain socio-cultural choices. Dissent is integral to our ethos and  that has to be used to build the  right wing tradition

Next big idea – Minimum Government Maximum Governance

It was interesting to hear Ashok quote the projected GDP growth over the next decade to highlight the opportunity that exists for the Center Right tradition to occupy the dominant political space.  While Ashok talks of the need for the next big idea that is rooted in the aspirations of new India, Swapan gets more concrete on what the next idea might be.

paternalism as being distinct from big government

role of state in india historically limited

community had greater jurisdiction

state was limited to basic contract of seeking protection in exchange for paying taxes

Last few decades have marked the success of Nehruvian project in the deep faith Indians have come to repose  in large government

There is a role for ideas on how can govt be made purposeful

Gujarat is the exception being at the cutting edge of indian capitalism

The idea of Minimum Government  championed by Narendra Modi with an emphasis on effectiveness and efficiency of government spending could be that  idea

Triangulation – around Ideas or Personalities or a Personality

It was interesting to see a mix of views emerge on how the Center Right must triangulate. On the one hand there was the usual emphasis on engaging all 3 constituencies – socio-cultural conservatives, economic free marketeers, nationalists who lean Right on strategic issues. There was also a fourth dimension that emerged that which perhaps exposes the limitation of “triangulation” as a construct in the Indian context. This was on regional aspirations and federalism. While Ashok saw the expansion of engagement of free marketeers to include a role and a stake for Indian Business within the Center Right political space.

Where Swapan saw Reagan, Thatcher as role models and a reminder to the BJP on C. Rajagopalachari, a telling remark came from  Ashok on the ideal iconic personality

Some Savarkar,  Golwalkar, Minoo masani and Rajaji

It was interesting to note Swapan subconsciously highlight how perhaps Narendra Modi triangulates across constituencies by appealing to different constituencies for different reasons. It was also interesting to note Ashok describe the ideal characteristic for the next BJP President as someone who not just holds the fort (a word play on literal meaning of Gadkari coincidentally) but as someone who advances ideas a transformative leader nor a manager.

While all of them hedged their bets on the leadership question for the BJP, the answer was there within the subtext of comments on Triangulation.

In Conclusion

It reflects on the evolution of intellectual discourse within the Center Right that there wasn’t much talk of Local Government being the next big idea. Much of thinking still hinges on the idea of efficient and effective government springing from state capitals.  Extrapolating from these conversations it can be said that a future platform for the Center Right will evolve from the idea of Minimum Government and from the political opportunities created by economic aspirations.

While coalition politics and regional incumbencies may color the decision on  leadership in 2014, the subtext is clear that the least common denominator will not do. It will have to be a transformation leader, an ideas person who appeals to different constituencies for different reasons.

Filed under: Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, Shveta Chhatra, socio-economic engineering

February 15, 2011 • 12:34 am 7

Shape of things to come

With the Congress coming around to the setting up of a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) to probe the 2G spectrum scam a picture is beginning to emerge of the shape of things to come.

The JPC was not expected to accomplish much to begin with. With the likely choice of KC Deo from the Congress to head it, the odds of it uncovering anything are next to nothing. Mr. Deo has to his credit the infamy of having uncovered nothing in the Cash for Votes scam that tainted the Confidence Vote won by Dr. Manmohan Singh during his first term in 2008. Mr. Deo’s credibility is such that the only guilty from his earlier probe were the whistle-blowers. With such an illustrious chairperson, this JPC can be declared “Dead on Arrival”.

The demand for the JPC by the BJP exposes two aspects of its political strategy in the current environment. First  that its campaign against the UPA had peaked 3 years too early. Second that its strategy was less focused on its own path to power in 2014 and more on forcing a mid term upheaval within the Congress. Since the leak of Radia tapes to the media back in November of 2010 it was abundantly clear that there was an internecine battle within the Congress positioning for a post Manmohan Singh scenario. If there were going to be any winners or losers from this round of politics on the 2G scam resulting in the JPC, it was going to be players within the Congress with few if any immediate dividends for the BJP.

The electoral reality  for the BJP remains unchanged in that

#1 It has to consolidate strength in existing strongholds were it has already peaked with little further room to grow

#2 It has to reverse its fortunes in Uttar Pradesh and in cosmo Urban Lok Sabha seats it once held

#3 It has to break new ground to the East and South along the Bay of Bengal

#4 It has to hope for Congress losses in Andhra and Maharashtra

#5 It has to keep the revolving door open for partners from Tamil Nadu and West Bengal

The BJP has little control over the last two factors. A test of its current strategy is progress on the first 3 factors.

The Congress today made an intriguing announcement on rationalizing Subsidies which can be potentially described as laying the foundation (aadhar) for the next version of the UPA.  The Congress has perfected the art of turning incumbencies to an advantage through mid-term changes. Maharashtra is a good example.With the UPA’s next big ticket entitlement program gaining momentum as well, one must not be surprised if a mid term change at the center results in the rolling together of the twin platforms of Smart Welfare and Aspirational India into one.

This makes the BJP’s current path to 2014 deeply flawed and highly risky. Being rooted in anti-congressism in the hope of netting enough regional parties to cobble a majority, its current campaign has little to offer by way of a powerful alternative narrative beyond breeding anger and paranoia. Swapan Dasgupta writing in The Pioneer over the weekend had some interesting comments to make on the BJP’s path to 2014 and the likely contenders to lead it. We have also been told of a Vision document to come. But a document on paper and an opaque process of decision making will not quite cut it.

The BJP should have gotten ahead on the ideas battle by now to create conditions for its revival in UP and breaking new ground along the eastern seaboard.  It has instead expended much of its energy on an anti-corruption campaign that has only resulted in a hastening of the UPA’s blueprint for version 3.0 rather than an advancement of the BJP’s own blueprint for the decade of 2010.

Filed under: Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, socio-economic engineering, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

RSS Now Playing on Offstumped Live

  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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