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Politics and Public Policy in India

Samajwadi Party sweeps Uttar Pradesh – 3 Yadavs shine

Predicting electoral outcomes in the treacherous swamps of heartland politics in India can be dangerous.

That the Samajwadi Party was on the rebound has been the news since Ashok Malik’s initial observations.

That there was a wave of anti-incumbency against Mayawati was less than obvious as noise from Delhi filled the air and extraneous issues took center stage from land acquisition to a Muslim sub-quota.

That the BJP’s Mahasangram, Jan Chetana had bombed was amply clear from the manner in which the election campaign in Uttar Pradesh became a below the radar, backroom affair with a belated Uma Bharti entry.

That the Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra factor was good TV in as much as Anna Hazare was good for TRPs also became amply clear as multiple rounds of lowering of expectations began as well as the Congress foolishly persisted with its desperation over the Muslim vote.

But who would have thought that the voter in Uttar Pradesh would hand such a decisive verdict to the SP ?

In this victory for Akhilesh Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav it is odd that a 3rd Yadav should partake of some limelight. Yogendra Yadav stuck his neck out to go where no pollster has gone before in recent memory. Guess he may have overcompensated for some of that SP performance to err on the higher side.

Back in September of 2011 when the miasma of asinine cliches that passes for news and opinion in Delhi’s studios was focused on Sonia Gandhi’s health, Anna Hazare’s fast, the Social Spectator – an obscure online magazine carried a prolific piece of prose by Frank Huzur writing from Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh. The piece was titled “Chariot of Hope – Cycle of Change“. and it opened with these lines:

He may not be Harrison Ford. But he is surely James Dean. The rebel with a cause for socialist celebre!

In all of 2011, Google News Archives show at least 5000 odd stories on “Rahul Gandhi”. No, Frank Huzur was not talking of “Rahul Gandhi”, he was writing on Akhilesh Yadav who according to Google News Archives in 2011 managed a paltry 21 news stories. From that obscurity in 2011, Akhilesh Yadav has clearly come a long way to script his father’s comeback in Uttar Pradesh.

While the results will be analyzed threadbare in the next few hours, days and weeks there is a sobering lesson for those of us who have been conditioned to view politics in India from a Delhi lens.

No it is not on the Rahul Gandhi hype, which we were always sceptical about.

There is a deeper lesson on our conditioning that forces to think of Uttar Pradesh in purely casteist terms. This blogger had been immensely critical of a campaign strategy that focused purely on the calculus of caste while failing to project a pan-Uttar Pradesh agenda. There in lies a lesson for both analysis that held out some hope for Mayawati’s BSP as well as for a campaign strategy that viewed the BJP as a dark horse in Uttar Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi has bombed before, and this outcome in UP is more confirmation of his limitations as a future leader for the Congress. The Nehru Gandhi brand may disproportionately sway the national discourse but it continues to underwhelm in state elections.

What is however stunning is how deeply the BJP leadership in Uttar Pradesh had its head buried in the sand. Instead of blaming amateur psephologists for decisions that ought to have been the Leadership’s gambles, the BJP needs to wake up to the reality that its status quoist strategies of incremental linear growth have run their course. There is no new ground left to break and there is little hope of reclaiming old ground.

The BJP has indeed emerged as a dark horse albeit on its way to nowhere. That the BJP needs a radical overhaul is an understatement !

Postscript:

- The BJP’s resounding win in Goa results and its partner SAD doing extremely well in Punjab to make history do little to hide the fact that it has been squeezed out of the largest state.

Tailpiece:

- The Presidential election later this year is now in flux unless the Congress manages to drive a hard bargain with the Samajwadi Party

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, Assembly elections 2011, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Indira Gandhi, Internet Hindus, Left Liberalism, Manmohan Confidence Vote, Mayawati, Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Offstumped, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Varun Gandhi

Destiny’s Daughters face off – from Uttar Pradesh Polls to a Southern Second Front

Uma Bharti despite her flaws from the past brings an important dimension to the UP election. In a field littered with non-playing captains she is leading from the front alongside other BJP hopefuls for a leadership role. In stark contrast the Congress and SP charge is being lead by Members of Parliament while Mayawati plays safe through the MLC route.

The Uma Bharti versus Mayawati face off will also draw an earthy contrast against the cheer-leading campaign style of the privileged Nehru-Gandhis.

The other dimension to Uma Bharti’s second coming, after practically self-destructing her career as recently as 2008, is  her entry to the club of four other Destiny’s daughters and one son.

More on that from Column in Rediff

India is poised at a critical juncture as its destiny is now closely intertwined with the political fate of destiny’s four daughters and one son. All five of them are grassroots achievers. What is more, all of five of them have a chosen a lonely political path with no dynasty to bequeath their political legacy to.

Mayawati [ Images ] and Uma Bharti stand between the cynical politics of competitive communalism in Uttar Pradesh between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party. Mamata Banerjee [ Images ] stands in between the Congress’ anti-federal impulses and the next election. Coming from a state with radically altered demographics, thanks to a soft border policy for decades, it is Mamata Banerjee who will face some early tests in bridging this divide.

No less will be the burden on Narendra Modi in bridging this communal fault-line as he continues down a path that few in the BJP have undertaken.

But the all important inoculation against an Islamist veto on the affairs in Delhi will likely have to come from down South. Noted political satirist and the match-maker of many a political alliance, Cho Ramaswamy, mooted a southern second front against the Congress over the past weekend with a key role for Jayalalithaa [ Images ].

Federalism is the credo that binds all of them together as was evident in their collective opposition to the divisive Communal Violence Bill pushed by the Congress. It is in that shared value of federalism that we must look for a new coalition that not just stands up to the cynical vote bank politics of the Congress, but is also able to pave a political path towards permanently burying this communal faultline.

The issue of Federalism assumes immense political significance as Governor’s assert themselves in an extra-constitutional fashion with the shameful approval of a flawed Judiciary as was manifest in the Gujarat Lok Ayukta case.

It will be interesting to see if a southern second front emerges in the months to come as a bulwark against the Congress’ anti-federal excesses.

More on that Cho Ramaswamy speech at the Tughlak annual event from last week translated from Tamil into English by blogger NR.

Jaya wishes to bring a government like Modis/Gujarat govt in TN. She aspires to take TN to a position better than Modis administartaion of Gujarat. She suffers though from lack of continous run as everytime is time is wasted on repairing the DMK unleashed disarray. She will compete with Modi if she gets continuous run of 10 years

BJP’s decision is in the hands of Advani, but we people have Modi in our minds, we see him as PM candidate. If he comes nation will be electrified, as Modi will become the issue, no other issues needed for BJP, with it they can win  the elections easily.

If for some reason, if those who speak secularism and associated issues combine and say bjp govt cannot come but a bjp supported govt can come, then I would say BJP should support Jaya as pm.

Her patriotism,determination, hardwork, charisma, grasping power, her ability to swim against tideknowing many languages are qualities which will be highly useful for a country.

Even otherwise, I think ADMk will play a crucial role in the formation of next government and they will need to do their bit for a BJP govt.

Be it uniting the party post being hounded out after MGR death, developing the party, or making the phoenix comeback and finally achieving a stupendous electoral achievement not even achieved by MGR, she has done it single handedly, and depended on her own and was her lone campaigner.

I admire leaders like jaya and Modi who get no central support and achieve despite the hurdles of hostile media and centre.

Interesting days ahead, Offstumped will be on a break for a few weeks, look forward to the much promised Uttar Pradesh election special podcast to be released soon   ….

Filed under: उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

Imagining the Congress’ Uttar Pradesh nightmare thanks to Election Commission

Pink Elephants on Parade from the movie Dumbo ……

Also read Kanchan Gupta in The Pioneer taking potshots at the Election Commission’s decision to shroud Mayawati’s Dalit Pride in Pink much to the anxiety of the Rahul Gandhi lead Congress.

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, Baba Ramdev, betrayal of aam admi, Offstumped, satire, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

Faizan can do better, dream big if only ….

Originally published in The Pioneer

The Congress’s communal brinkmanship and the Election Commission’s over-zealous conduct have made the contentious issue of a Muslim sub-quota the centerpiece of public debate in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. The issue has effectively shut out debate on everything else to the point where it becomes necessary to ask if the Uttar Pradesh poll is now a referendum on this single issue.

The Congress has put both the Uttar Pradesh election and its own campaign on a dangerous trajectory. Its carefully crafted strategy of OBC micro-targetting is under stress while the upper caste vote is being alienated. The Election Commission’s zeal in shrouding Chief Minister Mayawati’s statues has put the Congress further on the defensive.

A high-stakes debate on the Muslim sub-quota is not without its unintended consequences to the other parties as well.  The real danger though is the high risk of competitive communalism from the SP and the BSP to deny the Congress its unfair share of the Muslim vote.

The incident of burning an effigy in Azamgarh over the Batla House encounter must be seen in the light of this competitive communalism the Congress’s sub-quota will spur in the dog-fight over Muslim votes. It is despicable that, despite repeated clarifications by Union Minister for Home Affairs P Chidambaram on the genuineness of the Batla House encounter, Congress’s Digvijay Singh continues to stoke a controversy while Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi fails to take an unequivocal stance on the issue.

The more the Uttar Pradesh election turns into a referendum on the Muslim sub-quota issue the less is the likelihood of a meaningful verdict emerging from this election.

In a recent article, political commentator Ashok Malik has observed how there is no space for politics of growth, aspiration and economic advancement in Uttar Pradesh. The liberal opinion-making establishment must stand guilty for this as much as cynical politics. There has been no serious repudiation of the Congress’ communalism on the sub-quota issue. More inches of print space and more minutes of airtime were devoted to fringe issues in States not even going to polls while the Congress’s cynical pursuit of quotas in Uttar Pradesh was given a free pass. What is worse is the glee and cheer with which sections of the media have reported on the party’s pursuit of community specific entitlements through the story of one Faizan of Azamgarh.

Faizan, we are told, was instrumental in advising Rahul Gandhi to announce a financial package for the mostly Muslim weavers in Uttar Pradesh, bypassing the State Government and middlemen. If media reports are anything to go by, Faizan, who makes three saris a week and earns about Rs 100 per sari, and other beneficiaries like him will be eligible to receive cheap credit and margin money directly in their bank accounts. The politically expedient manner in which central money was doled out by the Congress in Azamgarh notwithstanding, one’s heart goes out for Faizan.

The polio-stricken father of two, who is thrilled at this one-time bail-out, will likely continue to make three saris a week and earn the same or less per sari. Unfortunately for Faizan, Uttar Pradesh goes to a high-stakes election only once in five years for Mr Rahul Gandhi to come around and pull strings in Delhi on his behalf. What happens to Faizan the day after the one-time waiver is spent and the credit dries up?

It is a shame that a Faizan should have to push himself into a corner into making a choice between dependence on a corrupt State Government and what is at best temporary relief.  It is tragic that an opportunistic Congress has raised the hopes of Faizan without offering any economic roadmap for how he takes himself, his family and his community of weavers out of the quagmire they currently find themselves in.

BJP leader Uma Bharati in a Press conference in Delhi alluded to the need for the Muslim community to look beyond quotas, citing the example of Muslim prosperity in Gujarat. A sentiment earlier expressed by the PDP leader from Kashmir, Mehbooba Mufti, in her remarks at the National Integration Council meeting in New Delhi last year.

It must be asked why the Muslim debate in Uttar Pradesh has to remain hostage to a fight over the spoils of reservations. It must also be asked why a Faizan of Azamgarh has to be condemned to a lifetime of dependence seeking bailouts that will only be doled out at the discretion of cynical politicians in Delhi. Surely a Faizan of Azamgarh can do better than three saris a week and earn Rs 100 for asari to dream big of a future, where his enterprise mass produces thousands ofsaris a week.

There is a message for Azamgarh’s Faizan in Mehbooba Mufti’s anecdote of a Muslim businessman in Gujarat benefiting from the kind of Governance that facilitates entrepreneurship.

If only a Faizan could look beyond the dog fights over sub-quotas, false hopes from bailouts and dangerous polemics over victimhood and terror. If only a Faizan could break free from the status quo to demand the kind of governance that fosters economic growth, creates economic opportunity and promotes enterprise, this Uttar Pradesh election would be markedly different.

Uttar Pradesh’s fate in 2012 could be as much a victim of its failed politics as it may be of its voters’ failure to break free from the past to demand better and dream big

Filed under: Advani Yatra against Corruption, Anna Hazare, उत्तर प्रदेश २०१२, OpEds on Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012, Two Indias, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, Uttar Pradesh Polls 2012

RSS Now Playing on Offstumped Live

  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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Opinions expressed on this site using the alias Offstumped are the blogger's personal opinions and do not in any way reflect the views of the blogger's Employers.