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Politics and Public Policy in India

BJP in Karnataka must avoid the Congress’ Andhra mistakes – OpEd in The Pioneer

Originally published in The Pioneer

Just when there seemed to be no bottom to the Congress’s blundering in Andhra Pradesh, we now have the unprecedented spectacle of the Congress scripting its path to recovery in Andhra Pradesh by hitting the self-destruct mode. The internecine battle that has broken out among the various factions of the Congress inside and outside the party has not only put governance in the State on the backseat but has also created the opportunity for new political configurations to emerge.

The Congress in Andhra Pradesh is now perilously close to going from sending the largest contingent of Lok Sabha MPs to becoming a bit player in the State, shorn of all credibility. The contempt with which the Congress leadership has treated a State that has been its mainstay is evident from the fact that neither Sonia Gandhi nor Rahul Gandhi have set foot in the State since the blundering over Telangana began after YSR’s death. The management of the Congress’s affairs has been left to backroom operators and bit players with no mass base.

It is telling that the Congress’s grand strategy in Andhra for a recovery hinges on turning on its own indiscriminately even at the risk of high collateral damage. It has had the bizarre consequence of Congress leaders playing the Hindu card to politically corner the late YSR’s son Jagan, a Christian. For the first time in the history of that State, a serving Cabinet Minister has been arrested by the CBI. The resulting environment of distrust it has created within the Congress in Andhra Pradesh has had a  curious fallout where the different factions can no longer tell friend from foe.

The BJP in Karnataka cannot afford to make the Congress’s Andhra mistake in a State that sends the largest number of MPs from that party.

The just concluded National Executive of the BJP in Mumbai ended on a high note with a photo-op of its future leadership. A notable omission from that photo-op was the BJP’s representation from the south of Vindhyas. In the battle for 2014 the BJP’s prospects depend on a number of factors coming together in its favour. But towering all of them is the need for a repeat performance in Karnataka. Karnataka’s political significance to the BJP lies not just in the number of the party’s MPs it sends to the Lok Sabha but also in its symbolic significance to the BJP, giving it a footprint south of Vindhyas.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who emerged as the tallest leader of the BJP at the National Executive, made a pertinent point in his blistering speech ripping apart the UPA at a public rally in Mumbai. Speaking of Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s vision of interlinking rivers, Mr Modi lamented the UPA’s delinquency when it came to building infrastructure. The BJP’s economic resolution as well dwelt on length on the political commitment to infrastructure development and capacity building.

It is noteworthy that, despite all the political turmoil, the BJP Government in Karnataka has accomplished a continuity of sorts in its mission to develop and add capacity to public transport in Bangalore. Many of the initiatives conceived during Mr Yeddyurappa’s reign continue to be sponsored through Mr DV Sadananda Gowda’s rule. But there is a real risk in Karnataka that the efforts put into infrastructure by the BJP could end up in a manner similar to the efforts into the National Highway system by the Vajpayee-led NDA. With the record number of Volvo buses, there was already a perceptible difference in the quality of commute in Bangalore. With the plans to integrate the Metro with the bus system and further applying technology to streamline the fleet, there is immense promise for a transformed public transport experience.

If continuity in political commitment saw the BJP sustain some of its efforts in Bangalore, the absence of the same continuity from the NDA-era into the UPA regime saw the National Highway expansion efforts stall. Hence, it becomes doubly important that the BJP not just avoid the Congress’s Andhra Pradesh mistake but to immediately and urgently take positive steps to shore up its political prospects in Karnataka.

The just concluded National Executive of the BJP signals the advent of an era where the party sees its strength in its federated power centres — in its performing Chief Ministers across the various States. It is incumbent upon the BJP to add Karnataka to the list of its showcase States. Mr Yeddyurappa, and Mr Gowda, sees Narendra Modi as a role model.

Leveraging his first among equals status, Mr Modi must expend some serious political capital to help the BJP set right its affairs in Karnataka urgently, by bringing together both of his understudies to thrash a way forward that is markedly different from the path chosen by the Congress in Andhra Pradesh to secure its southern mainstay.

Filed under: Narendra Modi, Nitin Gadkari, Telangana, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

Y.S. Jagan arrested – Congress hits self destruct button

It is quite a stunning turnaround from May 2004 to May 2012, when Sonia Gandhi campaigned shoulder to shoulder with the late Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy in the 2004 Lok Sabha  election to this week when the late YSR’s son was finally arrested over massive instances of financial irregularities during YSR’s rule in Andhra.

It would be naive to view YS Jagan’s arrest as a local phenomenon in Andhra. Since YSR’s death, the Congress has seen unprecedented turmoil leading to a split in the party and dog fights across factions within and outside the party. But we must not miss the significance of Andhra Pradesh in general and Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy in particular,  to the Sonia Gandhi lead Congress’ path to power.

It is a matter of public record that in both 2004 and 2009 Andhra Pradesh sent the largest number of Congress MPs. What is however not a matter of public record is the extent to which the Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy reign may have funded the Congress’ election campaigns in successive elections – allegations on this have been in the air for several years now.

Given the widespread nature of the alleged financial irregularities that have now been reported in connection with the late Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy’s family and the nexus with a spectrum of Crony Businessmen, the question needs to be asked what did 10 Janpath know and why did it look away all these years, till Y.S. Jagan started to pose an existential threat to the Congress in AP ? The TNN piece on Sonia Gandhi’s strategy from 20th May 2012 needs to be read in this regard

It’s the Congress’s last gambit. Faced with the prospect of a rout in the upcoming byelections that could begin the process of party’s disintegration in Andhra PradeshSonia Gandhi has given the signal for an all-out assault to save the party in its last citadel. The strategy has two prongs: a go ahead to the CBI to expedite its investigations in theJagan assets case without sparing anyone, and to rein in Congressmen who are showing signs of pulling in all directions.

As a result, the CBI now has begun treading a rapier sharp course. The agency has been told that ‘no-holds-barred’ is their mission target. For the time being, nobody, no minister or no civil servant needs to be spared. Home minister P Chidambaram, without interfering in the activities of CBI, is now overseeing this part of the operation. Sonia’s political secretary Ahmed Patel has been told to oversee the other part of the operation – to ensure that rebel Congressmen fall in line – at least for the time being and that they fan out to canvass for votes for the official party candidates where the bypolls are being held

It is evident that the Congress has hit the self destruct button in Andhra, but how long before the taint extends all the way from Lotus Pond to Janpath Road ?

There is an Andhra Congress lesson here for the BJP in Karnataka, more on that in an upcoming OpEd ….

Filed under: UPA-II Critical Appraisal

Evolving a Federal Consensus on National Issues like NCTC – Column in Rediff

Originally published in Rediff.

Background reading material

 October 1949 edition of the Sunday Indian Express on Sardar Patel’s efforts to integrate states and provinces

12th January 2010 OpEd in The Pioneer on why India needs a NCTC

The proposed National Center for Counter-terrorism is as much a casualty of politics as it is a casualty of the singular failure of the Central Government – the inability to negotiate interests across stakeholders to forge a consensus. It is bizarre that anyone in the UPA seriously thought that the mere mechanical act of circulating a memo would produce a consensus on the NCTC. It perhaps is a reflection of the deep cynicism underlying the political inertia within the UPA, which it went about the mechanical act of holding a discussion on NCTC knowing fully well a breakthrough was unlikely.

Who in their right mind would expect a forum that is about more talking than any listening to produce a consensus of any sorts ?

While it is true that there is little political interest within the UPA to pursue a consensus it is also true that the UPA lacks leaders who can actually negotiate and produce a consensus. The current impasse between the non-UPA ruled states and the UPA ruled Center calls for perhaps something more than a patient negotiator. It calls for a unique set of skills combined within a persona that inspires trust, awe and confidence.

Integrating the many Princely states and provinces into the Indian Republic was perhaps the most complex consensus building act in the political history of Modern India. Unlike the writing of the Constitution, consensus in which to large effect was accomplished thanks to the legislative majority enjoyed the Congress Party in the Constituent Assembly, the integration of the provinces was a different ball game. It involved negotiating a diversity of interests across a plurality of stakeholders. With a variety of instruments at his disposal, ranging from pressure and diplomacy Sardar Patel’s welding together a Federation to be governed by the Republic holds many lessons for the current impasse between the states and the Center.

While Patel’s appeal to national interest in bringing around the Princely states is well understood of particular interest is a statement made by him in the Constituent Assembly in October of 1949. The Sunday Indian Express in its edition of October 13th 1949 carried the statement at length.  In that statement it is noteworthy that Patel went on to reinforce the case for integration by not just limiting himself to the political and moral aspects but more specifically the economic benefits ranging from improved tax revenues to a massive boost to the treasury. The unique skills employed by Patel in this task become clear in the same statement as he sought to make a case to the Constituent Assembly to accept the terms negotiated by him with the states and provinces.

From NCTC to GST and from economic reforms to targeted subsidies/entitlements the political need of the present times is Leadership in Patel’s mold that can engage, negotiate, build trust and confidence where possible, awe and overwhelm when necessary.

Much has been made of Acceptability as the defining trait for triangulating on a future alternative to the Congress lead UPA. The reality of this much touted “Acceptability” is that it gets us the exact opposite of what the current impasse demands. It will give us the least common denominator of all insecurities. It will produce an alternative that is least threatening to status quo. Such an alternative will have practically no political capital to spend on altering status quo.

The minimum common path of “Acceptability” will not get us where we need to go to bring about the kind of reforms we urgently need. To get there, we will have to choose a path that is unpleasant to many. We will have to first make a clear and decisive choice for without such a clear mandate, there will be no political capital to expend on complex issues. This is a necessary precondition but barely sufficient as the UPA’s second term has shown conclusively. The political capital earned from a clear if not decisive verdict in 2009 has been frittered away by a timid leadership within the UPA incapable of communicating with the nation at large to push across a complex agenda.

From the manner in which the UPA has also allowed itself to be steamrolled by apolitical actors ranging from NAC Left Liberals to Lokpal activists there is yet another dimension to the leadership choice that needs to be made. It has to be a choice that is not easily overawed by pressure from vocal special interests.  Few politicians have mastered the art of turning an adverse political climate into an advantage by staking it all on an issue, turning it into a personal referendum. Those leaders who’s appeal is largely sectarian, try to get by making it about identity victimhood as we have routinely seen with caste based parties or linguistic/sub-regional identity parties. The more effective of these leaders are those who have been able to turn an issue around into a personal referendum by appealing to an entire state’s identity. Little wonder that it is these leaders who have stood up to the pressure from vocal special interests far more effectively than others.

The current impasse between the states and center is partly the result of this dynamic. Mass leaders at the state level are pushing their agenda by expending well-earned political capital, turning key issues into a personal referendum while simultaneously appealing to a statewide identity to push their case. A government stripped of mass leaders of any consequence has thus been clueless about dealing with them. The way out of this impasse lies in a Mass Leader at the national level who is capable of exercising similar leverage albeit at the national level to bring around the states. Someone who can appeal to a national identity, carry its weight to the negotiation table to accommodate legitimate interests on his or her terms while at the same time overwhelming the unreasonable ones into submission with the weight of that same political capital.

The path to consensus on critical issues of national interest lies not in the timid pursuit of “acceptability” but in a bold return to mass politics as was once attempted by Sardar Patel.  In this lies the difference between an “acceptable leadership” that is incapable of delivering on anything tangible and a “mass leadership” with the ability to push through and deliver on a complex agenda.

Filed under: federalism, Gujarat Polls 2012, Narendra Modi, UPA-II Critical Appraisal, War on Terror

National Commission for Minorities meddles with the Judicial Process on Gujarat 2002

It is that tax payer funded conscience keeper from Delhi at it once again.

This time meddling in areas where it has no Jurisdiction to prejudice the Judicial Process already underway on the Gujarat 2002 riots.

The National Commission for Minorities has served summonses on seven serving and retired Gujarat cops, asking them to appear before it and give evidence, among other things, on the February 27, 2002 meeting of top police officials held at Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s Gandhi Nagar residence in the wake of the Godhra carnage. The Commission hearing is scheduled for March 12.

One would have thought the Congress lead UPA government would have learnt its lessons by now on not misusing the plethora of agencies at its disposal in Delhi to meddle in the affairs of states. Justice for the 2002 riots is already on a course set by the Supreme Court.

Under these circumstances, this meddling by the NCM is politics at its worst with the sole  intention of second guessing investigations, sullying the process in the Courts and fostering contempt within victims to no there is no sense of closure even as verdicts are handed out in the various Riots cases.

If this is how the Congress intends to play politics after its rout in the recent state elections, it can forget any semblance of cooperation in Parliament in weeks and months to come.

This transgression by the NCM into areas way beyond its jurisdiction makes the case yet again for why this kind of politically motivated conscience keeping at the tax payers expense needs to be shut down.

Also see older blog posts

Why do we need a National Commission for Minorities ?” – Offstumped Archives 2008

Muslim Discrimination and National Conscience Keeping at the Tax Payers expense - Offstumped Archives 2007

Filed under: Narendra Modi, UPA-II Critical Appraisal

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  • On Third Front day dreams and Uttar Pradesh nightmares – Wrap up Podcast March 14, 2012
    A podcast conversation with  @dubash (http://phalaka.com) where we wrap up the Uttar Pradesh polls discussion with a look at the final numbers and analysis of vote shares. We also look ahead on all the buzz around Akhilesh Yadav, the rise of the Samajwadi Party and all of the day-dreaming over a possible Third Front Government [...]
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